资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 2307-2315.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.12.10

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欧盟对中国碳泄漏的测度与影响——基于世界投入产出表的分析

邸玉娜()   

  1. 北京工商大学,北京 100048
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-10 修回日期:2016-09-29 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2016-12-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:邸玉娜,女,河北廊坊人,博士,讲师,研究方向为国际贸易。diyuna@btbu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    北京市社科基金重点项目 (15JGA001,14JGA012);首都流通业研究基地内设项目(JD-YB-2014-04)

Influence and measurement of carbon leakage from the EU to China based on the world input-output database

DI Yuna()   

  1. Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China
  • Received:2016-08-10 Revised:2016-09-29 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2016-12-20

摘要:

欧盟碳泄漏的量化研究是全球减排责任分配的依据,是欧盟征收碳关税的基础,同时也是中国实践自主贡献的重要指引。文中基于多地区投入产出模型测算了1995-2011年欧盟对中国碳泄漏的产业分布、总体规模;欧盟对世界主要国家碳泄漏流向以及中国各产业对欧盟碳泄漏的敏感程度。测度结果表明,欧盟对中国碳泄漏规模呈现上升趋势,其中60%以上的碳泄漏分布在基本金属和金属制品、其他非金属矿物、水路运输、化学制品及航空运输等5个产业。从世界13个主要经济体国家看,欧盟对中国的碳泄漏量占其对世界碳泄漏总量的比重下降最快:从1995年的20.12%下降到2011年的7.41%,排名从第2位下降到第6位。虽然碳泄漏率即敏感性显著下降,但中国依然是欧盟最大的进口来源国,碳泄漏规模和贸易规模较大,若欧盟以碳泄漏为由征收碳关税,中国出口企业将受到较大影响。因此,面对欧盟碳关税的压力和中国自主贡献的目标,既要针对碳泄漏的敏感性产业进行结构调整,也应联合众多发展中国家共同面对气候谈判,强调碳排放消费国的责任和义务,为发展转型争取技术和空间。

关键词: 碳泄漏, 世界投入产出表, 国际贸易, 碳关税, 欧盟

Abstract:

Quantitative research into carbon leakage from the EU is the basis of emission burden allocation among countries,the foundation of carbon tariffs for the EU and the guidance of INDC in China. Based on the multiregional input-output model,this study calculates the scale and distribution of carbon leakage from the EU to China and other major countries. The results show that the scale of carbon leakage from the EU to China is increasing. From the view of industrial distribution,carbon leakage in China is mainly distributed in basic metals and metal products,other non-metallic minerals and water transportation,chemical products and air transportation,accumulatively 60% of total carbon leakage. Around the world,the leakage rate of China has decreased significantly from 20.12% in 1995 to 7% in 2011,and from 2nd to 6th place globally. In 2011 the EU imported more than 10.73% of its products from China,the largest export country in the world. Compared to other countries,the imports rate is higher than the carbon leakage rate in China. Given this case,China is relatively insensitive to the EU’s leakage and tariffs;however,under pressure from carbon tariffs and commitments to reduce emissions China should adjust industrial structure and trade strategy of sensitivity of the industry and cooperate with other countries to negotiate with the EU on carbon tariffs. We should emphasize the duties of carbon consumption countries to gain development technology and space.

Key words: carbon leakage, world input-output table, international trade, carbon tariff, European Union