关键词: 碳泄漏, 世界投入产出表, 国际贸易, 碳关税, 欧盟

Abstract:

Quantitative research into carbon leakage from the EU is the basis of emission burden allocation among countries,the foundation of carbon tariffs for the EU and the guidance of INDC in China. Based on the multiregional input-output model,this study calculates the scale and distribution of carbon leakage from the EU to China and other major countries. The results show that the scale of carbon leakage from the EU to China is increasing. From the view of industrial distribution,carbon leakage in China is mainly distributed in basic metals and metal products,other non-metallic minerals and water transportation,chemical products and air transportation,accumulatively 60% of total carbon leakage. Around the world,the leakage rate of China has decreased significantly from 20.12% in 1995 to 7% in 2011,and from 2nd to 6th place globally. In 2011 the EU imported more than 10.73% of its products from China,the largest export country in the world. Compared to other countries,the imports rate is higher than the carbon leakage rate in China. Given this case,China is relatively insensitive to the EU’s leakage and tariffs;however,under pressure from carbon tariffs and commitments to reduce emissions China should adjust industrial structure and trade strategy of sensitivity of the industry and cooperate with other countries to negotiate with the EU on carbon tariffs. We should emphasize the duties of carbon consumption countries to gain development technology and space.

Key words: carbon leakage, world input-output table, international trade, carbon tariff, European Union