资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 2283-2294.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.12.08
金巍1,2(), 章恒全1, 毛广雄2, 陈淑云3, 张陈俊1
收稿日期:
2016-05-11
修回日期:
2016-08-16
出版日期:
2016-12-20
发布日期:
2016-12-20
作者简介:
作者简介:金巍,男,河南项城人,讲师,主要研究方向为能源经济、水资源经济与管理。
基金资助:
JIN Wei1,2(), ZHANG Hengquan1, MAO Guangxiong2, CHEN Shuyun3, ZHANG Chenjun1
Received:
2016-05-11
Revised:
2016-08-16
Online:
2016-12-20
Published:
2016-12-20
摘要:
本文基于1994-2014年省际面板数据模型,利用交通基础设施投资规模并在考虑滞后一期的基础上,分别对全国及东中西部各类交通投资与能源消耗之间的关系进行研究,结果表明:①全国层面,铁路、公路、航空、水运投资均与能源消耗之间关系呈倒“U”型形态,但需警惕航空、水运投资与能耗之间“N”型形态;②区域层面,交通投资与能源消耗存在倒“U”型形态(西部水运投资整体不显著);铁路、公路投资拐点与经济发展关联性大,经济越发达地区投资拐点值小,反之则大,航空、水运投资拐点与经济发展关联性小;③进一步分析发现,铁路、公路投资对降低能源消耗作用最大,高铁和高速公路网建设有利于区域间产业转移和经济结构调整,促进低能耗产业发展(如旅游等)。通过全国和区域数据验证,继续加大交通基础设施投资有利于降低能源消耗,有助于“三去一降一补”目标的实现和“一带一路”战略的实施。
金巍, 章恒全, 毛广雄, 陈淑云, 张陈俊. 1994-2014年中国交通基础设施投资对能源消耗的影响研究[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(12): 2283-2294.
JIN Wei,ZHANG Hengquan,MAO Guangxiong,CHEN Shuyun,ZHANG Chenjun. Influence of transportation infrastructure investment on energy consumption in China from 1994 to 2014[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(12): 2283-2294.
表1
1994-2014年全国各类交通投资与能源消耗关系"
X | F-stat | 形态 | 拐点值 /(亿元/年) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
能源 消耗 | 铁路 | M1 | 7 060.51*** (70.77) | 0.005*** (9.39) | - | - | 0.004*** (7.94) | 0.852 | 112.08 | 单调递增 | - |
M2 | 6 471.07*** (51.87) | 0.010*** (13.51) | -0.376E-08*** (-10.43) | - | 0.004*** (7.48) | 0.845 | 102.44 | 倒U | 132.98 | ||
M3 | 6 297.34*** (44.24) | 0.012*** (10.61) | -0.615E-08*** (-4.11) | 8.340E-16* (1.72) | 0.004*** (7.66) | 0.849 | 102.66 | N | 无解 | ||
公路 | M1 | 5 798.70*** (70.71) | 0.001*** (7.01) | - | - | 0.002*** (12.46) | 0.924 | 234.28 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 5 159.85*** (56.64) | 0.002*** (13.32) | -0.014E-08*** (-13.32) | - | 0.002*** (12.40) | 0.937 | 278.73 | 倒U | 740.74 | ||
M3 | 4 730.83*** (45.25) | 0.003*** (15.76) | -0.042E-08*** (-11.90) | 0.162E-16*** (8.09) | 0.002*** (11.57) | 0.943 | 301.14 | N | 无解 | ||
航空 | M1 | 8 215.56*** (81.10) | 0.005*** (5.99) | - | - | 0.004*** (4.90) | 0.774 | 67.28 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 7 387.84*** (58.03) | 0.016*** (11.44) | -0.639E-08*** (-10.56) | - | 0.006*** (5.12) | 0.785 | 69.04 | 倒U | 125.20 | ||
M3 | 6 936.91*** (49.33) | 0.031*** (12.90) | -3.330E-08*** (-9.46) | 80.100E-16*** (7.58) | 0.004*** (3.23) | 0.792 | 69.74 | N | 59.19 217.97 | ||
水运 | M1 | 7 594.23*** (90.92) | 0.003*** (4.59) | - | - | 0.005*** (7.51) | 0.872 | 132.89 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 7 152.59*** (84.22) | 0.006*** (8.76) | -0.102E-08*** (-7.92) | - | 0.005*** (6.81) | 0.900 | 169.09 | 倒U | 294.12 | ||
M3 | 7 078.67*** (80.70) | 0.009*** (8.31) | -0.279E-08*** (-4.86) | 2.040E-16*** (3.17) | 0.004*** (5.64) | 0.901 | 166.13 | N | 209.37 702.40 |
表2
1994-2014年东部地区各类交通投资与能源消耗关系"
X | F-stat | 形态 | 拐点值 /(亿元/年) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
能源 消耗 | 铁路 | M1 | 8 954.59*** (41.11) | 0.006*** (5.33) | - | - | 0.007*** (5.77) | 0.863 | 115.61 | 单调递增 | - |
M2 | 8 454.90*** (31.99) | 0.012*** (5.51) | -0.523E-08*** (-2.96) | - | 0.007*** (5.20) | 0.852 | 98.27 | 倒U | 114.72 | ||
M3 | 8 521.38*** (29.46) | 0.010*** (2.92) | -0.105E-08 (-0.14) | -23.500E-16 (-0.57) | 0.007*** (5.22) | 0.852 | 90.93 | - | - | ||
公路 | M1 | 7 381.77*** (36.15) | 0.001*** (7.41) | - | - | 0.002*** (7.57) | 0.932 | 249.60 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 5 859.43*** (24.65) | 0.004*** (10.90) | -0.039E-08*** (-9.34) | - | 0.002***(6.69) | 0.955 | 359.70 | 倒U | 516.80 | ||
M3 | 5752.23*** (21.35) | 0.004*** (7.58) | -0.052E-08*** (-2.88) | 0.124E-16 (0.72) | 0.002*** (6.44) | 0.955 | 334.85 | - | - | ||
航空 | M1 | 9 706.96*** (48.30) | 0.007*** (5.70) | - | - | 0.005*** (4.21) | 0.830 | 90.17 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 8 588.80*** (31.42) | 0.024*** (9.09) | -1.970E-08*** (-7.10) | - | 0.005*** (3.21) | 0.835 | 86.36 | 倒U | 60.91 | ||
M3 | 7 653.63*** (21.80) | 0.046*** (9.14) | -7.490E-08*** (-6.52) | 327.000E-16*** (4.94) | 0.003** (2.39) | 0.819 | 71.95 | N | 42.58 110.12 | ||
水运 | M1 | 7 771.35*** (44.36) | 0.003*** (3.93) | - | - | 0.006*** (8.20) | 0.915 | 225.44 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 7 375.97*** (36.20) | 0.006*** (5.05) | -0.165E-08*** (-3.28) | - | 0.005*** (6.96) | 0.945 | 291.80 | 倒U | 181.82 | ||
M3 | 7 217.58*** (31.00) | 0.008*** (4.44) | -0.445E-08** (-2.09) | 8.480E-16 (1.35) | 0.006*** (7.05) | 0.945 | 270.68 | - | - |
表3
1994-2014年中部地区各类交通投资与能源消耗关系"
X | F-stat | 形态 | 拐点值 /(亿元/年) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
能源 消耗 | 铁路 | M1 | 7 208.53*** (35.66) | 0.004*** (5.29) | - | - | 0.004*** (3.78) | 0.684 | 39.31 | 单调递增 | - |
M2 | 6 800.72*** (27.90) | 0.009*** (5.40) | -0.269E-08*** (-2.89) | - | 0.003*** (2.69) | 0.695 | 37.27 | 倒U | 167.29 | ||
M3 | 6 360.93*** (22.40) | 0.014*** (5.54) | -1.230E-08*** (-3.42) | 35.600E-16*** (2.75) | 0.003*** (2.84) | 0.714 | 37.01 | N | 102.71 127.63 | ||
公路 | M1 | 5 288.24*** (34.07) | 0.001** (2.56) | - | - | 0.002*** (7.56) | 0.891 | 145.53 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 4 786.60*** (32.93) | 0.002*** (6.81) | -0.019E-08*** (-8.67) | - | 0.002*** (7.04) | 0.926 | 200.21 | 倒U | 534.76 | ||
M3 | 4 788.99*** (30.13) | 0.002*** (5.41) | -0.018E-08* (-1.86) | -0.013E-16 (-0.15) | 0.002*** (6.93) | 0.925 | 179.86 | - | - | ||
航空 | M1 | 7 274.10*** (28.49) | 0.022*** (3.08) | - | - | 0.037*** (4.69) | 0.558 | 23.33 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 6 777.74*** (23.62) | 0.057*** (5.02) | -17.400E-08*** (-3.70) | - | 0.035*** (4.38) | 0.577 | 22.65 | 倒U | 16.38 | ||
M3 | 6 435.34*** (19.57) | 0.098*** (4.25) | -68.600E-08*** (-2.67) | 1.290E-12** (2.02) | 0.032*** (3.89) | 0.585 | 21.40 | N | 9.92 25.54 | ||
水运 | M1 | 8 062.36*** (49.84) | 0.011** (2.44) | - | - | 0.006 (1.15) | 0.721 | 46.58 | - | - | |
M2 | 7 627.81*** (47.06) | 0.030*** (6.15) | -2.910E-08*** (-6.29) | - | 0.006 (1.29) | 0.799 | 75.00 | - | - | ||
M3 | 7 306.16*** (37.84) | 0.046*** (6.39) | -12.000E-08*** (-4.52) | 0.088E-12*** (3.40) | 0.012** (2.22) | 0.788 | 54.69 | N | 27.54 63.07 |
表4
1994-2014年西部地区各类交通投资与能源消耗关系"
X | F-stat | 形态 | 拐点值 /(亿元/年) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
能源 消耗 | 铁路 | M1 | 4 308.62*** (28.38) | 0.004*** (6.15) | - | - | 0.004*** (4.80) | 0.840 | 95.78 | 单调递增 | - |
M2 | 3 796.42*** (22.79) | 0.010*** (9.86) | -0.332E-08*** (-7.85) | - | 0.004*** (5.28) | 0.870 | 112.23 | 倒U | 150.60 | ||
M3 | 3 831.73*** (21.17) | 0.009*** (6.49) | -0.278E-08 (-1.46) | -1.790E-16 (-0.29) | 0.004*** (5.15) | 0.869 | 102.53 | - | - | ||
公路 | M1 | 3 918.16*** (34.26) | 0.001*** (3.11) | - | - | 0.001*** (5.85) | 0.908 | 180.36 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 3 404.26*** (31.10) | 0.001*** (7.29) | -81.500E-12*** (-8.60) | - | 0.001*** (6.56) | 0.938 | 249.76 | 倒U | 613.50 | ||
M3 | 3 079.14*** (25.92) | 0.002*** (9.80) | -0.035E-12*** (-8.56) | 0.146E-16*** (6.51) | 0.001*** (6.72) | 0.933 | 215.45 | N | 372.57 1 225.61 | ||
航空 | M1 | 6 025.49*** (36.02) | 0.003** (5.33) | - | - | 0.003* (1.76) | 0.574 | 29.12 | 单调递增 | - | |
M2 | 4 927.10*** (25.60) | 0.020*** (8.19) | -0.727E-08*** (-8.22) | - | 0.005*** (2.60) | 0.744 | 49.22 | 倒U | 137.55 | ||
M3 | 4 901.29*** (24.85) | 0.023*** (4.67) | -1.310E-08 (-1.59) | 17.900E-16 (0.71) | 0.003 (1.28) | 0.744 | 45.55 | - | - | ||
水运 | M1 | 6 172.76*** (36.49) | 0.002 (1.46) | - | - | 0.002 (1.26) | 0.564 | 24.44 | - | - | |
M2 | 5 909.50*** (40.57) | 0.008*** (5.10) | -0.090E-08*** (-5.58) | - | 0.002 (1.39) | 0.655 | 32.44 | - | - | ||
M3 | 5 892.89*** (39.78) | 0.011*** (3.19) | -0.279E-08 (-1.58) | 2.070E-16* (1.07) | -0.000 2 (-0.07) | 0.650 | 29.43 | - | - |
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