农户水稻秸秆还田技术采纳意愿及其驱动路径分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.11.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水稻秸秆还田技术是政府主推的一项绿色农业技术,探讨农户对这一技术的采纳意愿及驱动路径,有助于农业可持续发展与生态文明建设的顺利推进。本文基于改进的MOA理论框架,根据湖北省3市农户问卷调查数据,利用SEM模型,分析了采纳动机、采纳机会、能力（抗风险能力、操作能力）、信任与农户水稻秸秆还田技术采纳意愿间的逻辑关系。研究发现：采纳动机对农户采纳意愿影响不显著,而采纳机会、操作能力、抗风险能力则对其具有显著正向影响,且整体效应分别为0.665、0.291、0.644,信任则具有间接效应,其大小为0.304。从跨组回归来看,随着家庭年收入的提高、受教育程度的提升,抗风险能力对农户采纳意愿的影响逐渐增强;随着家庭种植面积的扩大,采纳动机和抗风险能力对采纳意愿的影响更强。根据以上结论,本文提出了政府应该加快水稻秸秆还田技术推广进程、完善风险补偿制度、加大秸秆还田技术研发力度、加强政府信任建设以及建立以政府为主导的秸秆回收体系等政策建议,以便增进农户对水稻秸秆还田技术的采纳意愿。

关键词: 水稻秸秆还田技术, 采纳意愿, 驱动路径, 信任, MOA, SEM

Abstract:

Rice straw returning technology is one of the main promoted green agricultural technologies. The study of farmer willingness to adopt this technology and its driving path will be conducive to the progress of agricultural sustainable development and ecological civilization construction. Based on the modified MOA theory,we analyzed the logical relationship between farmer willingness to adopt rice straw returning technology and their adoption motivation,opportunity,ability （anti-risk ability and operation ability）and trust with the use of SEM modeling and household survey data in three cities in Hubei. We found that adoption motivation does not show a significant effect on farmer adoption willingness,while adoption opportunity,operation ability and anti-risk ability have significant positive effects,the standardized path coefficients are 0.615,0.317 and 0.617,respectively. Trust has an indirect effect of 0.304 on farmer adoption willingness. From the view of group regression,with the improvement of household income and education level,the impact of anti-risk ability on adoption willingness strengthens gradually. The influence of adoption motivation and anti-risk ability become more prominent,with the increase in household acreage. Policy implications to enhance farmer willingness to adopt rice straw returning technology include accelerating the process of rice straw returning technology promotion,improve risk compensation system,speed up research and development of straw returning technology,strengthen farmer trust in government and establish a government-led straw recovery system.

Key words: rice straw returning technology, adoption willingness, driving path, MOA, SEM

吴雪莲, 张俊飚, 何可, 张露. 农户水稻秸秆还田技术采纳意愿及其驱动路径分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(11): 2117-2126.

WU Xuelian,ZHANG Junbiao,HE Ke,ZHANG Lu. Farmer willingness to adopt rice straw returning technology and driving path[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(11): 2117-2126.

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潜变量	观测变量	均值	标准差
采纳动机	m1“采纳水稻秸秆还田技术有利于空气质量变好”	3.09	1.02
	m2“采纳水稻秸秆还田技术有利于身体健康”	3.05	1.10
	m3“采纳水稻秸秆还田技术有利于土壤质量提高”	3.01	0.97
	m4“采纳水稻秸秆还田技术有利于节约成本”	3.02	1.02
采纳机会	o1“政府在农业技术信息服务方面发挥了作用”	2.99	0.99
	o2“政府在技术指导方面发挥了作用”	3.00	1.09
	o3“政府在资金贷款方面发挥了作用”	2.57	1.19
	o4“政府在改善基础设施方面发挥了作用”	3.35	1.12
抗风险能力	a1“水稻秸秆还田技术的风险可控”	2.63	0.93
	a2“我能承受水稻秸秆还田技术风险”	2.58	0.84
操作能力	a3“学习水稻秸秆还田技术很容易”	2.64	1.17
	a4“我能解决水稻秸秆还田技术应用中的问题”	2.60	1.16
信任	t1“农技部门的技术服务促使我信任该技术”	3.25	1.14
	t2“我相信政府会在技术风险发生时帮助农户减轻损失”	3.31	1.24
采纳意愿	y1“我愿意采纳水稻秸秆还田技术”	3.09	1.08
	y2“我愿意向邻居推荐水稻秸秆还田技术”	3.11	1.11

潜变量	观测变量	因子载荷	Cronbach's α	CR	AVE	潜变量	观测变量	因子载荷	Cronbach's α	CR	AVE
采纳动机	m1	0.777	0.834	0.866	0.618	抗风险能力	a1	0.783 2	0.770	0.784	0.644
	m2	0.771					a2	0.822 0	0.770	0.784	0.644
	m3	0.813				操作能力	a3	0.910 0	0.813	0.905	0.826
	m4	0.784					a4	0.908 0	0.813	0.905	0.826
采纳机会	o1	0.828	0.825	0.852	0.591	信任	t1	0.735 0	0.937	0.695	0.532
	o2	0.778					t2	0.724 0	0.937	0.695	0.532
	o3	0.770				采纳意愿	y1	0.753 0	0.928	0.743	0.592
	o4	0.693					y2	0.785 0	0.928	0.743	0.592

统计量	绝对适配指数					增值适配度指数					简约适配度指数
检验量	CMIN/DF	RMR	RMSEA	GFI	AGFI	NFI	RFI	IFI	TLI	CFI	PGFI	PNFI	PCFI	CN
初始模型	3.629	0.076	0.076	0.920	0.882	0.927	0.905	0.946	0.929	0.945	0.622	0.711	0.725	456
修正模型	2.157	0.061	0.050	0.952	0.929	0.958	0.946	0.977	0.970	0.977	0.643	0.739	0.754	456
适配标准	1.0~3.0	<0.08	<0.08	>0.90	>0.90	>0.90	>0.90	>0.90	>0.90	>0.90	>0.50	>0.50	>0.50	>200

假设	标准化回归系数	接受/拒绝	假设	标准化回归系数	接受/拒绝
采纳意愿←采纳动机	0.009	拒绝	操作能力←采纳机会	0.350***	接受
采纳意愿←抗风险能力	0.654***	接受	操作能力←采纳动机	0.095*	接受
采纳意愿←操作能力	0.135***	接受	抗风险能力←操作能力	0.240***	接受
采纳意愿←采纳机会	0.201***	接受	采纳动机←信任	0.568**	接受
采纳意愿←信任	0.027	拒绝	操作能力←信任	0.236***	接受
抗风险能力←采纳机会	0.513***	接受	抗风险能力←信任	0.347***	接受
采纳动机←采纳机会	0.182***	接受

假设	家庭年收入		受教育程度		家庭种植面积
假设	高收入	低收入	高学历	低学历	大规模	小规模
采纳意愿←采纳动机	0.090	0.055	0.028	0.095	0.160*	0.017
采纳意愿←采纳机会	0.104	0.209**	0.155*	0.227***	0.015	0.242***
采纳意愿←抗风险能力	0.704***	0.657***	0.726***	0.600***	0.716***	0.647***
采纳意愿←操作能力	0.189**	0.182**	0.087	0.189***	0.087	0.134**
采纳意愿←信任	0.056	0.039	0.101	0.049	0.012	0.058
CMIN/DF	1.767		1.580		1.746
RMSEA	0.041		0.036		0.041
GFI	0.924		0.932		0.926
AGFI	0.890		0.899		0.891
CFI	0.970		0.977		0.971
TLI	0.961		0.974		0.962