资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 2013-2023.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.11.01

• •    下一篇

中国退耕还林还草地区复耕可能性及其影响因素的比较分析

陈儒1, 邓悦2, 姜志德1(), 谢晨3   

  1. 1. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨陵 712100
    2. 西北农林科技大学人文社会发展学院,杨陵 712100
    3. 国家林业局经济发展研究中心,北京 100714
  • 收稿日期:2016-01-10 修回日期:2016-08-05 出版日期:2016-11-16 发布日期:2016-11-16
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:陈儒,男,山西曲沃人,博士生,主要研究方向为生态农业、低碳经济。E-mail:R.CHEN@foxmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573212)中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2012027)

Comparative analysis of regional factors influencing land reconversion possibility in returning farmland to forest and grassland project areas in China

CHEN Ru1, DENG Yue2, JIANG Zhide1(), XIE Chen3   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China
    2. School of Humanities and Social Development,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China
    3. Research Center for Economics and Development,State Forestry Administration,Beijing 100714,China
  • Received:2016-01-10 Revised:2016-08-05 Online:2016-11-16 Published:2016-11-16

摘要:

本文以计划行为理论为基础,采用调研获取的17省(市、自治区)1757个农户调查数据,运用因子分析、最优尺度回归模型实证分析了中国退耕还林还草地区复耕可能性及其影响因素的区域差异。结果表明,退耕区复耕可能性具有明显的区域差异,依据复耕可能性的大小可以划分为复耕可能性较高和较低两类地区。退耕区农户的复耕意愿是影响退耕区复耕可能性的主要因素之一,但非最重要因素,在复耕可能性较高的地区,退耕补贴依然是影响该地区农户复耕决策的重要因素,农户做出复耕决策受本地区其它农户的影响较大。在复耕可能性较低的地区,退耕农户较高的退耕积极性降低了复耕发生的概率,农户的复耕意愿和复耕预期对复耕可能性的影响程度也随着自身知识水平的提升而降低,退耕补贴已经不再是该地区农户复耕决策中重要的考虑因素,因此在政策设计上应考虑降低或停止农户的退耕补助,探索构建以碳交易为主的市场化补贴机制。此外,两类地区退耕农户均十分注重工程的实施效果,在政策设计中应加强对工程后期成果的维护。

关键词: 复耕, 可能性, 影响因素, 退耕还林还草工程

Abstract:

This study is based on TPB theory and used data obtained by investigation of 1757 farmer households in 17 provinces. An empirical analysis was carried out using factor analysis and optimal scaling regression modeling in regional differences of factors influencing land reconversion possibility in returning farmland to forest and grassland project areas in China. We found an obvious regional difference in land reconversion possibility; according to the possibility it can be classified as two areas of a higher likelihood of land reconversion and lower. Farmers' willingness of land reconversion was an important factor influencing the possibility of land reconversion,but not the only major factor. Subsidy was an important factor affecting farmer rehabilitation decisions in the higher likelihood of land reconversion area,farmer rehabilitation decisions were affected by other farmers in the region. The enthusiasm of farmers led to a low possibility of land reconversion in the lower likelihood areas,the degree of farmer willingness and anticipation of land reconversion influenced rehabilitation possibility also along with its own knowledge level of ascension. Subsidy was no longer the important consideration factor in farmer rehabilitation decision-making. Therefore,policy design should reduce or stop farmer subsidies,and explore the construction of a carbon trading-based market subsidy mechanism. Both the two types of areas focused on the project implementation effect,so policy design should strengthen the maintenance of projects.

Key words: land reconversion, possibility, influencing factors, returning farmland to forest and grassland project