资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (9): 1801-1809.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.09.17

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东亚垂直分工对中国对外贸易隐含碳的影响研究——基于MRIO-SDA方法跨期比较

钱志权1,2(), 杨来科1   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学经济与管理学部,上海 200241
    2. 浙江交通职业技术学院,杭州 311112
  • 收稿日期:2016-05-18 修回日期:2016-08-08 出版日期:2016-09-25 发布日期:2016-09-22
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:钱志权,男,浙江淳安人,博士生,副教授,研究方向为国际贸易与气候变化。E-mail:jacobqian@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AGJ002);浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点课题(15NDJC024Z);教育部人文社会科学青年项目(15YJC790080)

The impact of East Asia vertical specialization on China’s embodied carbon emissions: an inter-temporal MRIO-SDA analysis

QIAN Zhiquan1,2(), YANG Laike1   

  1. 1. Faculty of Economics and Management,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China
    2. Zhejiang Institute of Communications,Hangzhou 311112,China
  • Received:2016-05-18 Revised:2016-08-08 Online:2016-09-25 Published:2016-09-22

摘要:

随着中国在东亚垂直分工体系中角色日渐凸显,其产业及贸易结构产生了重要的变化,这对中国贸易隐含碳排放的影响不容忽视。本文利用可比价格的全球投入产出表,构建了一个包含中、日、韩、印尼、马、菲、新、泰、中国台湾、越等东亚国家(地区)的多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,运用MRIO-SDA技术对1997-2002年、2002-2007年、2007-2012年中国对东亚地区出口隐含碳进行了跨期比较。研究表明:①东亚垂直分工导致了中国隐含碳排放增长,而且虽然中国能源利用效率的提高对隐含碳的增加有缩减效应,但减幅明显收窄。贸易结构恶化与贸易规模扩张是中国对东亚地区出口隐含碳增长的重要因素;②由于隐含碳排放区域溢出,中国碳排放受到东亚垂直分工体系影响最大,与东亚垂直分工体系同步性越来越强;③2008年金融危机对东亚垂直分工体系产生了结构性的影响,东亚垂直分工体系有低碳化的趋势;④中国要加强对于高能耗贸易品出口的监管,同时要充分利用东亚垂直分工体系区域溢出对减排的正面作用,避免成为国际碳排放倾销的目的地。

关键词: 垂直分工体系, 出口隐含碳排放, 多区域投入产出模型, 结构分解

Abstract:

China’s increasing importance in the vertical specialization of East Asia has resulted in significant alteration to its economic structure and trade patterns,which has a non-negligible impact on embodied carbon emissions. Based on the price adjusted global input-output table (YNU-GIO)we constructed a Multi-Regional Input Output Model for the 10 East Asia member economies of China,Japan,Korea,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,Taiwan Province of China and Vietnam,to undertake inter-temporal structure decomposition analysis of China’s export embodied carbon emissions within East Asia from 1997 to 2002,2002 to 2007 and 2007 to 2012. It is indicated that as the biggest victimized country,China’s speedy augmentation in embodied carbon emissions and trends tend to be strengthened in the near future due to integrating into vertical specialization in East Asia. Trade structural change effects and trade volume expansion effects contributed most to the hasty increase of China’s export embodied carbon dioxide. East Asia vertical specialization has the greatest impact on China's carbon emissions due to the regional spillover effect of embodied carbon emissions. However,embodied carbon reduced significantly due to the improvement in energy efficiency but this effect has narrowed during the post crisis period. China’s embodied carbon emissions synchronized with the East Asian region recently. The 2008 global financial crisis has structural impact on the East Asia vertical specialization system and hence resulted in a low-carbon trade pattern in the region. In order to better integrate into East Asia vertical specialization and avoid becoming the destination of international environmental dumping,measures should be taken for the Chinese government to monitor the export of energy intensive products and utilize the positive regional spillover effect to help China’s abatement actions.

Key words: vertical specialization, export embodied carbon emission, MRIO, SDA