资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (9): 1780-1790.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.09.15

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中国农业碳排放驱动因素的时空特征研究

何艳秋1(), 戴小文2   

  1. 1. 四川农业大学管理学院,成都 611130
    2. 四川农村发展研究中心,成都 611130
  • 收稿日期:2016-01-10 修回日期:2016-04-05 出版日期:2016-09-25 发布日期:2016-09-22
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:何艳秋,女,重庆人,博士,讲师,主要研究环境经济、经济统计。E-mail:linxiatingqiu@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金“中国区域间农业隐含碳排放补偿机制与减排路径研究”(16CJL35)资助

Phase characteristics and regional differences in agriculture carbon emissions in China

HE Yanqiu1(), DAI Xiaowen2   

  1. 1. Sichuan Agricultural University school of Management,Chengdu 611130,China
    2. Sichuan Center for Rural Development Research,Chengdu 611130,China
  • Received:2016-01-10 Revised:2016-04-05 Online:2016-09-25 Published:2016-09-22

摘要:

低碳农业不仅是减缓气候变暖的重要手段,也是中国传统农业向现代农业转变的必经过程,研究农业碳排放的驱动因素对中国制定农业减排措施具有一定意义。而已有研究更注重农业碳排影响因素的显著性,未从影响因素本身出发考虑其在影响农业碳排时的时间差异和区域差异。本文将对应分析和面板模型结合,一方面从时间纬度分析了全国农业碳排放主导因素的阶段性特征,另一方面从空间纬度探讨了地区农业碳排主导因素的区域差异。得到了两方面结论:一是中国农业碳排放主导因素在时间纬度上有两个发展阶段,先由农业经济结构主导向农业机械化主导转变,再向农业经济发展水平主导转变;二是中国农业碳排主导因素在空间纬度上存在明显的区域差异,农业经济发展水平和机械化水平对农业碳排的主导性由西向东减弱,农业经济结构对农业碳排的主导性东部最强,中部最弱,农业经济规模对农业碳排的主导性西部最强,中部最弱。研究结果可对中国制定分阶段、分区域农业减排政策提供参考。

关键词: 农业碳排放, 时空特征, 对应分析, 面板模型

Abstract:

Low carbon agriculture is not only an important means to mitigation climate warming,but it is necessary for China’s transition from traditional to modern agriculture. Research on the impact of agricultural carbon emissions factors are significant to determine measures to agricultural emissions. Many studies have paid attention to agricultural emissions factors and the effect on agricultural emissions. However,they do not consider time differences and regional differences in agricultural emissions factors influencing agricultural emissions. Combining correspondence analysis and panel modeling,this paper analyzes stage characteristics of agricultural emissions factors affecting agricultural emissions over time. Regional differences in agricultural emissions factors from a spatial angle were also analyzed. The results show that there are two stages of agricultural carbon emissions dominating the time dimension. Agricultural carbon emissions changed from being led by an agricultural economic structure to an agricultural mechanization, then changed from being led by agricultural mechanization to being led by the agricultural development level. There were significant regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions dominant factors on the spatial dimension. The influence degree of agricultural economic development level and level of mechanization decreased from western to eastern China. The influence degree of agricultural structure decreased from eastern to central China. The influence degree of agricultural economies scale decreased from western to central China. This work provides a solid foundation for China to engage in a phased reduction and sub-regional reduction of agricultural carbon emissions, and comprehensive carbon reduction gargets.

Key words: agricultural carbon emissions, spatial-temporal characteristics, correspondence analysis, panel model