资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (9): 1768-1779.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.09.14
收稿日期:
2015-12-21
修回日期:
2016-04-18
出版日期:
2016-09-25
发布日期:
2016-09-22
作者简介:
作者简介:刁贝娣,女,安徽淮北人,硕士生,主要研究方向为区域经济与管理。E-mail:
基金资助:
DIAO Beidi1(), ZENG Kefeng1, SU Panda1, DING Lei2, LIU Chao1
Received:
2015-12-21
Revised:
2016-04-18
Online:
2016-09-25
Published:
2016-09-22
摘要:
作为“十二五”期间新纳入控制性约束指标的污染物,NOX排放量的研究成果可为地区减排份额的制定提供依据。本文运用ESDA(探索性空间方法)分析省域工业NOX排放的时空分布特征,进而通过LMDI模型分解探究其主要驱动因素。结果显示:①工业NOX的排放总量虽然呈现先增加后减少的态势,但至2013年也只完成减排份额的5.6%,相对2015年15%的减排目标还有一定距离,减排形势严峻;②省域工业NOx排放在空间上呈现集聚分布特征,高排放量集聚主要出现在河北、河南、山东、江苏等中东部地区,且随时间的推移有向外围省份扩张的趋势;③LMDI模型分解结果表明,经济发展是NOx增排的主要驱动力,生产技术进步和能源利用效率提升是减排的主要控制因素,产业结构调整的减排效应在2011年后开始凸显;④以四象限图及排放量为划分依据将各省份划分为3个大类,并从改进生产技术、提高能源利用效率、增加经济鼓励、削减排放份额等方面提出相应的减排建议。
刁贝娣, 曾克峰, 苏攀达, 丁镭, 刘超. 中国工业氮氧化物排放的时空分布特征及驱动因素分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(9): 1768-1779.
DIAO Beidi,ZENG Kefeng,SU Panda,DING Lei,LIU Chao. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of provincial industrial NOx emissions and driving factors in China from 2006 to 2013[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(9): 1768-1779.
表1
基于蒙特卡罗检验的全局Moran′s I估计值比较"
年份 | Moran’s I | E(I) | Sd. | P-value |
---|---|---|---|---|
2006 | 0.227 8 | -0.303 | 0.115 2 | 0.021 |
2007 | 0.058 6 | -0.303 | 0.115 5 | 0.203 |
2008 | 0.192 1 | -0.303 | 0.111 5 | 0.034 |
2009 | 0.173 2 | -0.303 | 0.114 2 | 0.038 |
2010 | 0.161 7 | -0.303 | 0.108 9 | 0.045 |
2011 | 0.221 8 | -0.303 | 0.113 4 | 0.023 |
2012 | 0.227 8 | -0.303 | 0.114 9 | 0.023 |
2013 | 0.213 5 | -0.303 | 0.112 8 | 0.024 |
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