香格里拉未来50a主要气候环境要素变化预估——基于小波分析和多元 VAR 回归预估模型

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.09.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用云南省香格里拉气象站55a（1958-2012）的逐年气温、降水量、绝对湿度、相对湿度和霜日数资料,引入多元最小二乘估计模型（多元OLS）、多元向量自回归模型（多元VAR）和结构方程模型,基于Morlet连续复小波（Cmor）变换的主周期数据,探索未来50a香格里拉气温等气候环境要素的定量预估模型、变化趋势及5个主要气候环境要素的相互关系。结果表明：未来50a内香格里拉的气温以0.44℃/10a的速率升高,50a后气温将升高2℃左右;降水以围绕平均值做周期振荡为主,并以14.7mm/10a的速率增多;绝对湿度以0.06 mg/L/10a的速率增大,并有明显的周期振荡;相对湿度以-0.96%/10a的速率减小,并有周期振荡;年霜日数以-2.8d/10a的速率减少,并有周期振荡。绝对湿度、相对湿度和霜日数的变化与气温和降水的变化显著相关,气温变化对湿度和霜日数的影响大于降水量的影响,气温的持续升高是除降水外其他气候要素变化的主要原因。

关键词: 香格里拉, 气候环境要素, 气候变化, 小波分析, 多元VAR, 耦合分析

Abstract:

Using main cycle data transformed from Molet continuous complex wavelet （CMOR） we explored Shangri-La’s five main climatic and environmental factors'（yearly temperature,precipitation,absolute huidity,relative humidity and frost days）quantitative prediction models,variation trends and multiple relations based on multiple Ordinary Least Squares （OLS）model,multiple Vector Auto-regression （VAR）modeling and Structural Equation Model（SEM）. The raw data was from the Shangri-La meteorological station in Yunnan,China from 1958 to 2012. We conclude that in next 50 years,Shangri-La’s temperature will increase at a rate of 0.44 ℃/10a,it will rise about 2℃ after 50 years,reaching about 9℃. Shangri-La’s precipitation shows periodic oscillation around its mean value,increasing at a rate of 14.7mm/10a. Shangri-La’s absolute humidity will increase at a rate of 0.06 mg/L/10a with obvious periodic oscillation. Shangri-La’s relative humidity will decrease at a rate of -0.96 %/10a with periodic oscillation. Shangri-La’s yearly frosty days will decrease at a rate of -2.8 d/10a with periodic oscillation Shangri-La’s temperature,precipitation and frost days were dependent on temperature and precipitation;temperature’s effect is greater than precipitation’s;and a continuous increase in temperature is the main reason for changes in all other climatic factors,except precipitation.

Key words: Shangri-La, climatic and environmental factors, climate change, wavelet analysis, Multiple VAR, coupling analysis

刘盈曦, 彭贵芬, 陈先刚, 杨宇明. 香格里拉未来50a主要气候环境要素变化预估——基于小波分析和多元 VAR 回归预估模型[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(9): 1754-1767.

LIU Yingxi,PENG Guifen,CHEN Xiangang,YANG Yuming. Climatic and environmental changes in Shangri-La in next 50 years according to wavelet analysis and multiple VAR regression prediction modeling[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(9): 1754-1767.

图/表 14

图1

图2

图3

表1

表2

图4

图5

图6

表3

图7

表4

表5

香格里拉气候环境系统耦合关系结构方程模型检验结果"

检验统计量	P> $χ 2$	RMSEA	CFI	TLI	总体R²
拟合标准	>0.05	<0.1	>0.9	>0.90	>80%
检验结果	0.743	0.000	1.000	1.082	93.6%
模型适配判断	是	是	是	是	是

表5

图8

表6

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因子	回归系数（T检验的P值）
9a主周期	0.017 2 （0.702）
14a主周期	0.031 5 （0.107）
28a主周期	0.032 9***（0.001）
趋势项	0.043 6***（0.000）
常数项	5.076 0***（0.000）
N	55.000 0
R	0.872 0

预估年数	10a	20a	30a	40a	50a
预估年份	2022	2032	2042	2052	2062
气温值/℃	7.537	7.956	8.351	8.774	9.229
增速/（℃/10a）	0.437	0.419	0.395	0.423	0.455

降水量		绝对湿度		相对湿度		霜日
3a主周期	3.945 0 （0.121）	5a主周期	0.069 0***（0.006）	28a主周期	-0.325 0* （0.059）	6a主周期	0.822 0***（0.001）
6a主周期	0.381 0 （0.308）	8a主周期	0.068 9***（0.001）	31a主周期	1.119 0** （0.034）	8a主周期	0.327 0 （0.146）
7a主周期	0.655 0 （0.187）	15a主周期	0.034 7* （0.059）	32a主周期	-0.852 0** （0.023）	22a主周期	0.887 0 （0.129）
13a主周期	0.669 0***（0.001）	23a主周期	0.009 7 （0.215）			23a主周期	-0.764 0 （0.220）
22a主周期	0.210 0 （0.225）	31a主周期	0.002 5 （0.605）			28a主周期	-0.445 0 （0.375）
31a主周期	0.543 0 （0.355）					29a主周期	0.491 0 （0.274）
趋势项	0.934 0 （0.216）	趋势项	0.005 6***（0.000）	趋势项	-0.087 5***（0.000）	趋势项	-0.341 0***（0.000）
常数项	611.200 0***（0.000）	常数项	6.756 0***（0.000）	常数项	71.340 0***（0.000）	常数项	159.400 0***（0.000）
N	55	N	55	N	55	N	55
R	0.609	R	0.714	R	0.744	R	0.669

预估年数	10a	20a	30a	40a	50a	未来50a 变率/10a
预估年份	2013-2022	2023-2032	2033-2042	2043-2052	2053-2062	未来50a 变率/10a
年降水量/mm	664.845 5	696.612 1	660.637 9	689.148 8	755.739 1	14.729 0
年平均绝对湿度/(mg/L)	7.072 0	7.173 0	7.189 0	7.257 0	7.311 0	0.060 0
年平均相对湿度/%	65.819 0	65.115 0	63.497 0	63.604 0	61.981 0	-0.960 0
年霜日/d	139.647 0	134.549 0	133.642 0	125.293 0	128.380 0	-2.817 0

	被解释变量	解释变量	系数	标准差	Z	P>\|z\|	95%的置信区间		R
结构方程	绝对湿度	降水	0.175**	0.075	2.34	0.019	0.028	0.322	0.66
		气温	0.631***	0.054	11.73	0.000	0.526	0.737
		常数项	26.090***	2.926	8.92	0.000	20.355	31.826
	相对湿度	降水	0.210***	0.069	3.05	0.002	0.075	0.345	0.76
		气温	-0.738***	0.043	-17.11	0.000	-0.823	-0.654
		常数项	37.411***	2.068	18.09	0.000	33.357	41.464
	霜日	绝对湿度	-0.298**	0.132	-2.25	0.024	-0.557	-0.039	0.56
		降水	-0.175*	0.101	-1.74	0.083	-0.373	0.023
		气温	-0.267**	0.116	-2.30	0.022	-0.494	-0.039
		常数项	25.231***	3.340	7.55	0.000	18.679	31.785
残差的协方差	相对湿度与绝对湿度		0.843***	0.039	21.57	0.000	0.766	0.919