“丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家气候变化特征

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.09.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于美国国家气候中心发布的全球气象站点日数据,利用克里金插值、线性趋势法、累计距平曲线法、Mann-Kendall显著性检验和多尺度区域统计等方法,系统阐述了“丝绸之路经济带”主要国家1980-2014年气温和降水的变化趋势和空间分布特征。结果表明,研究区近35 年以0.4℃/10a的速率呈现明显升温态势,30.1%的区域升温显著,0.03%的区域降温显著。各国普遍在20世纪末进入偏暖阶段。降水以减少为主,却仅有0.19%的区域减少显著,零星分布于沙特阿拉伯和中国的西部。南亚1991年后进入降水偏多阶段,其余地区多在1999年后进入降水偏少阶段。该成果能够为相关国家在“一带一路”战略的统领下解决和应对气候变化问题提供科学依据和有益参考。

关键词: 气候变化, 降水, 气温, 丝绸之路经济带

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming,the influence of climate change cannot be ignored during the process of the Belt and Road Initiative. Here,we characterized the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in the countries within the Silk Road Economic Belt and systematically analyzed spatiotemporal changes over the last 35 years. We used daily observations of meteorological stations provided by National Climatic Data Center in America and employed Kriging interpolation,linear trend methods,accumulative anomaly curve,Mann-Kendall tests,and spatial statistics at regional,country and pixel scales. The results show that the study area had a warming of 0.4℃/10a from 1980 to 2014. Most countries entered a warmer phase at the end of 20th century. Further,of the whole study area,30.1% has warmed and only about 0.03% has experienced a drop in temperature. Precipitation has tended to decrease,but only 0.19% of the study area has a significant downward trend in precipitation. There were also some areas with a significant upward trend in precipitation,such as Saudi Arabia,southwestern Iran,western Bulgaria,northwestern Ukraine,northern Pakistan,northern India,Nepal,Laos,western China and central Russia. South Asia has had increasing precipitation since 1991,but all other areas have undergone precipitation decline since 1999. Climate change will result in pros and cons for countries in the study area. This study provides a scientific base and conducive reference for the adaption of relevant countries to climate change during development of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: climate change, precipitation, temperature, Silk Road Economic Belt

徐新良, 王靓, 蔡红艳. “丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家气候变化特征[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(9): 1742-1752.

XU Xinliang,WANG Liang,CAI Hongyan. Spatio-temporal characteristics of climate change in the Silk Road Economic Belt[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(9): 1742-1752.

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编号	国家	编号	国家	编号	国家
1	爱沙尼亚	16	阿尔巴尼亚	31	土库曼斯坦
2	拉脱维亚	17	马其顿	32	乌兹别克斯坦
3	立陶宛	18	塞尔维亚	33	吉尔吉斯斯坦
4	波兰	19	保加利亚	34	塔吉克斯坦
5	白俄罗斯	20	格鲁吉亚	35	尼泊尔
6	捷克	21	亚美尼亚	36	不丹
7	斯洛伐克	22	阿塞拜疆	37	孟加拉国
8	摩尔多瓦	23	叙利亚	38	老挝
9	乌克兰	24	黎巴嫩	39	柬埔寨
10	罗马尼亚	25	以色列	40	越南
11	匈牙利	26	巴勒斯坦	41	斯里兰卡
12	斯洛文尼亚	27	约旦	42	马来西亚
13	克罗地亚	28	科威特	43	新加坡
14	波黑	29	卡塔尔	44	印度尼西亚
15	黑山	30	阿联酋	45	东帝汶

区域	显著变化面积占比 /%	气温变化率 /（℃/10a）	主要分布地区
中国	34.35	0.50	中国中部和南部
蒙古	14.16	0.77	蒙古东南部
俄罗斯	15.73	0.50	俄罗斯西部
东南亚	37.53	0.45	缅甸、泰国、柬埔寨
独联体	33.78	0.65	乌克兰、阿塞拜疆
南亚	34.77	1.79	印度东部、阿富汗西部、孟加拉国
西亚北非	63.09	0.76	也门、阿曼、沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克
中东欧	35.56	0.57	匈牙利、克罗地亚、捷克
中亚	34.72	0.53	土库曼斯坦、哈萨克斯坦西部
全区	30.08	0.70	西亚北非、中国、俄罗斯西部

区域	显著变化面积占比 /%	降水年变化率 /（mm/10a）	主要分布地区
中国	2.37	26.58	中国西部
蒙古	0.00	0.00	无
俄罗斯	3.10	38.14	俄罗斯中部
东南亚	4.74	223.09	老挝、菲律宾
独联体	4.32	21.84	乌克兰西北部
南亚	16.90	143.30	印度东北部、尼泊尔
西亚北非	10.25	21.96	沙特阿拉伯、科威特、卡塔尔
中东欧	7.46	84.44	波兰南部、保加利亚西部
中亚	0.18	32.34	乌兹别克斯坦东部
全区	4.92	80.25	印度、沙特阿拉伯、老挝