1961-2010年中国0cm地温变化特征及其与气温变化的关系

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.09.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来,气候变化尤其是气候变暖已成为一个全球性问题。下垫面作为大气的直接热源、水源,对气候的形成及维持具有重要意义。因此,研究地温变化特征及其与气温变化之间的关系,对探究气候变化机理具有重要意义。本研究利用中国581个气象站1961-2010年0cm地温、气温数据,将全国分为8个区域,采用相关分析、M-K非参数检验等方法,对0cm地温的时空变化、区域分异以及季节分异特征进行了研究,并分析了0cm地温变化与气温变化的关系。研究表明：中国0cm地温呈先降低后升高的趋势,2000年突变后升温趋势更为明显;中国大部分地区0cm地温都表现为升温趋势,且北方地区较南方升温更加明显,在过去50年中,南北温差呈现缩小的趋势;就各季节而言,冬季升温最明显,夏季升温最弱;相关分析表明,气温与0cm地温变化趋势及程度在大部分地区很相近,但在20世纪70年代之前及20世纪后期,0cm地温与气温变化存在较大差异。相对于气温的变化,0cm地温的升温幅度更大,突变时间较晚。

关键词: 气候变化, 地温, 气温, 时间变化, 突变, 季节分异, 空间分异

Abstract:

In recent years,climate warming has become a global problem. As the underlying surface is the direct heat and water source of the atmosphere,it has a strong effect on forming and maintaining local climates. The study of ground temperature variation characteristics helps to understand climate change more clearly and researching the relationship between ground temperature and air temperature variation is of great significance to understanding the mechanism of climate change. Based on daily mean air temperature and ground temperature at a depth of 0 cm from 581 stations during 1961 to 2010,correlation analysis and Mann-Kendall nonparametric tests,spatial and temporal variation characteristics,regional differentiation characteristics and seasonal differentiation characteristics of ground temperature at the depth of 0 cm and air temperature were analyzed. The results indicate that ground temperature at a depth of 0 cm in China decreased and then increased with an abruption around 2000,after the abruption the rising trend of ground temperature tended to be more obvious. In most regions,ground temperature at 0 cm rose and the trend in the north was more obvious than the south. The rise in ground temperature at 0 cm in winter was more apparent than in summer. Correlation analysis showed that variation air temperature and ground temperature at 0 cm were similar,but before the1970s and after the 20th century,large differences were apparent. Compared to variation in air temperature,ground temperature at 0 cm from 1961 to 2010 tended to have a larger range and later abruption.

Key words: climate change, ground temperature, air temperature, variation characteristics, abruption, seasonal differentiation characteristics, regional differentiation characteristics

王佳琳, 潘志华, 韩国琳, 程路, 董智强, 张婧婷, 潘宇鹰, 黄蕾, 赵慧, 樊栋樑, 吴东. 1961-2010年中国0cm地温变化特征及其与气温变化的关系[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(9): 1733-1741.

WANG Jialin,PAN Zhihua,HAN Guolin,CHENG Lu,DONG Zhiqiang,ZHANG Jingting,PAN Yuying,HUANG Lei,ZHAO Hui,FAN Dongliang,WU Dong. Variation in ground temperature at a depth of 0 cm and the relationship with air temperature in China from 1961 to 2010[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(9): 1733-1741.

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区域	突变前			突变年份 /年	突变后
区域	气候倾向率（℃/10a ）		均值	方差	气候倾向率（℃/10a）	均值	方差
全国	0.17	13.28	0.254	2000	1.04	14.47	0.208
东北	0.32	5.77	0.521	2000	1.99	7.49	0.791
华北	0.12	11.45	0.263	1993	0.55	12.45	0.323
西北	0.18	10.51	0.291	2000	1.63	12.08	0.473
华南	0.08	24.40	0.222	1995	0.38	24.97	0.186
华东	0.14	18.65	0.344	1993	0.53	19.72	0.227
中南	0.02	17.84	0.321	2000	0.34	18.49	0.169
西南	-	-	-	NSA	-	-	-
青藏	-	-	-	NSA	-	-	-

	春	夏	秋	冬
全国	0.31**	0.10*	0.32**	0.69**
东北	0.47**	0.35**	0.40**	1.07**
华北	0.39**	0.26**	0.22**	0.52**
华东	0.38**	-0.07	0.39**	0.65**
华南	0.13	0.08	0.22**	0.33**
西南	-0.07	0.05	-0.02	-0.02
青藏	-0.02	-0.07	0.08	0.25**
西北	0.39**	0.32**	0.37**	0.65**
中南	0.28**	-0.18*	0.15*	0.27**

季节	突变前			突变年份 /年	突变后
季节	气候倾向率 ℃/10a）		均值	方差	气候倾向率 ℃/10a）	均值	方差
春季	0.12	14.49	0.343	2000	0.24	15.74	0.282
夏季	-	-	-	NSA	-	-	-
秋季	0.16	13.42	0.388	2000	1.37	14.52	0.439
冬季	0.50	-1.49	1.122	1992	1.30	0.25	0.899

	春	夏	秋	冬	相关系数
全国	0.25**	0.16**	0.25**	0.43**	0.931**
东北	0.35**	0.26*	0.30**	0.55**	0.867**
华北	0.34**	0.21**	0.27**	0.58**	0.944**
华东	0.26**	0.11*	0.21**	0.37**	0.900**
华南	0.12	0.13**	0.20**	0.31**	0.865**
西南	0.13*	0.12**	0.19**	0.30**	0.450**
青藏	0.26**	0.25**	0.35**	0.55**	0.513**
西北	0.27**	0.22**	0.33**	0.49**	0.918**
中南	0.26**	-0.02	0.19**	0.31**	0.879**