滇中城市群水资源生态承载力的平衡性研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.08.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水资源短缺已成为制约滇中城市群发展的主要因素之一,客观认识水资源生态承载力及其平衡性是解决滇中城市群缺水问题和实现区域社会-经济-生态协调发展的前提。运用水资源生态足迹模型、基尼系数以及重心模型对滇中城市群水资源生态承载力的供需平衡、时空平衡以及平衡性的偏离程度进行分析。结果表明:①2006-2014年滇中城市群水资源生态承载力为（0.216~1.370）hm²/人,区域内部差异和年际变化较大;②水资源生态承载力在供需上呈现不平衡状态,在时间变化上呈现不稳定状态;③水资源生态承载力的综合基尼系数为0.372~0.626,总体上处于“集聚程度较大”的区间范围,空间变异系数为0.358~0.804,水资源生态承载力在空间分布上不平衡;④滇中城市群水资源生态承载力重心与其几何中心偏离,偏向南部地区,年均偏移距离为40.6km,区域间水资源生态承载力与人口、经济分布以及资源环境极不对应。

关键词: 水资源生态足迹, 人均水资源生态承载力, 基尼系数, 重心模型, 平衡性, 滇中城市群

Abstract:

One of the major constraints restricting expansion of central Yunnan urban agglomeration is that of water shortage. Determining the ecological carrying capacity of water resources for central Yunnan urban agglomeration is needed to solve water shortages and achieve coordinated development of the regional society,economy and ecology. This study used the water resource ecological footprint model,Gini coefficient and gravity model to analyze equilibrium state,time and space,and the degree of deviation of the balance of water resources and ecological carrying capacity for central Yunnan urban agglomeration. We found that the ecological carrying capacity of water resources varied from 0.216 to 1.370 ha per person between 2006 and 2014,with great regional differences and inter annual variation. The ecological carrying capacity of water resources is unbalanced for supply and demand,showing temporal variation in an unstable state. The Gini coefficient of the ecological carrying capacity of water resources varied from 0.372 to 0.626 between 2006 and 2014,within the range of a great distance;the coefficient of spatial variation of the ecological carrying capacity of water resources varied 0.358 to 0.804 between 2006 and 2014,showing the imbalance of regional space as a whole. The center of gravity of water resources and ecological carrying capacity in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration deviates from its geometrical center,which is the southern region,tending to average annual offset distance of 40.6 km,and the ecological carrying capacity of water resources in the region does not correspond to population,economy or resource environment.

Key words: water ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity of water resources, Gini coefficient, center-of-gravity mode, balance, the central Yunnan urban agglomeration

程超, 童绍玉, 彭海英, 闫少凯. 滇中城市群水资源生态承载力的平衡性研究[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(8): 1561-1571.

CHENG Chao,TONG Shaoyu,PENG Haiying,YAN Shaokai. Ecological carrying capacity of water resources in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration area[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(8): 1561-1571.

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	生态赤字			供需平衡		生态盈余
	严重超载	过载	超载	临界超载	平衡有余	盈余	富裕	富足有余
EPI_w	（0,0.5]	（0.5,0.7]	（0.7,0.9]	（0.9,1.0]	（1.0,1.1]	（1.1,1.5]	（1.5,2.5]	（2.5,+∞）

类型	项目	水资源生态承载力	水资源生态足迹	水资源生态压力指数
时间变异系数	昆明	0.648	0.102	0.567
	曲靖	0.555	0.247	0.595
	玉溪	0.654	0.210	0.744
	楚雄	0.875	0.149	0.947
空间变异系数	2006年	0.723	0.287	0.975
	2007年	0.358	0.127	0.274
	2008年	0.440	0.148	0.449
	2009年	0.578	0.157	0.503
	2010年	0.468	0.116	0.587
	2011年	0.728	0.275	0.366
	2012年	0.728	0.309	0.672
	2013年	0.413	0.301	0.231
	2014年	0.804	0.244	0.698

年份	人口基尼系数	GDP 基尼系数	水资源量基尼系数	综合基尼系数
2006	0.253	0.533	0.455	0.414
2007	0.355	0.453	0.307	0.372
2008	0.293	0.389	0.628	0.437
2009	0.506	0.506	0.714	0.575
2010	0.250	0.732	0.664	0.548
2011	0.383	0.484	0.389	0.419
2012	0.401	0.583	0.508	0.497
2013	0.371	0.473	0.413	0.419
2014	0.535	0.873	0.470	0.626