资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8): 1525-1537.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.08.11
收稿日期:
2015-05-11
修回日期:
2016-06-05
出版日期:
2016-08-25
发布日期:
2016-08-25
作者简介:
作者简介:杨建新,男,湖北鄂州人,博士生,主要研究方向为土地利用变化及其资源环境效应分析与模拟。E-mail:
基金资助:
YANG Jianxin1(), GONG Jian1,2(
), LI Jiangfeng1
Received:
2015-05-11
Revised:
2016-06-05
Online:
2016-08-25
Published:
2016-08-25
摘要:
本文探索了最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machine ,LSSVM)获取元胞转换规则的可行性,并应用于复杂土地利用变化模拟预测。以湖北省鄂州市为研究区,以1991-2004年土地利用变化数据作为模型训练数据,运用改进的ROC分析方法对比分析了LSSVM和逻辑回归方法获取的元胞转换规则,在此基础上运用LSSVM-CA模型模拟了研究区2013年的土地利用情景,并对2020年和2030年土地利用情景进行预测。研究结果表明:①LSSVM对数量较大、变化过程较复杂土地利用类型的空间分布模拟效果更好,如耕地、建设用地、养殖水体和其他用地;②与2013年实际土地利用情景相比,LSSVM-CA模拟结果总体精度为0.80,Kappa系数为0.73,处于较高一致性水平,优于逻辑回归-CA模型结果;③未来,鄂州市主城区、城西新区、“葛华新城”、“红莲湖新城”以及南部的花湖开发区、沼山镇、太和镇建设用地需求较大,将占用大量耕地,东部和南部低丘岗地区的耕地将大量转变为林地。研究结论为LSSVM方法可用于获取元胞转换规则进行复杂土地利用变化模拟,并能取得较好的效果,模拟结果可为研究区土地规划、耕地和生态环境保护等提供决策参考。
杨建新, 龚健, 李江风. 基于LSSVM-CA模型的复杂土地利用变化模拟——以鄂州市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(8): 1525-1537.
YANG Jianxin,GONG Jian,LI Jiangfeng. Complex land use changes simulation in Ezhou City using cellular automata based on least squares support vector machine[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(8): 1525-1537.
表3
实际和模拟情景景观格局指数"
景观格局指数 | 实际情景 | 模拟情景 | 指数差值 | 取值范围 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
形状特性 | 平均斑块分维数(FRAC_MN) | 1.06 | 1.05 | 0.01 | [1,2] |
平均斑块相关外接圆指数(CIRCLE_MN) | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.06 | [0,1] | |
平均斑块聚集指数(CONTIG_MN) | 0.40 | 0.44 | 0.04 | [0,1] | |
周长面积分形维数(PAFRAC) | 1.39 | 1.25 | 0.14 | [1,2] | |
聚散特性 | 蔓延度指数(CONTAG) | 42.32 | 48.40 | 6.08 | [1,100] |
散布于并列指数(IJI) | 74.76 | 75.43 | 0.67 | [1,100] | |
斑块结合度指数(COHESION) | 99.12 | 99.11 | 0.01 | [1,100] | |
聚集度指数(AI) | 84.71 | 91.49 | 6.78 | [1,100] |
表4
LSSVM-CA模拟结果精度"
实际面积 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
耕地 | 林地 | 建设用地 | 水体 | 养殖水面 | 其他用地 | 精度 | 总精度 | ||
模拟面积 | 耕地 | 53 225.28 | 1 392.75 | 2 641.14 | 326.16 | 2 581.65 | 1 501.65 | 86 | 80 |
林地 | 1 493.91 | 11 465.01 | 523.71 | 54.27 | 99.63 | 903.42 | 79 | ||
建设用地 | 2 666.61 | 610.56 | 22 301.82 | 253.62 | 1 004.31 | 659.25 | 81 | ||
水体 | 278.64 | 39.06 | 328.50 | 2 190.24 | 807.57 | 133.56 | 58 | ||
养殖水面 | 2 669.40 | 67.14 | 996.39 | 823.41 | 16 728.39 | 336.33 | 77 | ||
其他用地 | 1 344.06 | 961.47 | 711.45 | 119.52 | 394.02 | 3 821.22 | 52 |
[1] | 唐华俊,吴文斌,杨鹏,等. 土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)模型研究进展[J]. 地理学报,2009,64(4):456-468. |
[Tang H J,Wu W B,Yang P,et al.Recent progresses of land use and land cover change (LUCC)models[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(4):456-468.] | |
[2] | 张丁轩,付梅臣,陶金,等. 基于Clue-S模型的矿业城市土地利用变化情景模拟[J]. 农业工程学报,2013,(12):246-256. |
[Zhang D X,Fu M C,Tao J,et al.Scenario simulation of land use change in mining city based on LUE-S model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,(12):246-256.] | |
[3] | Xu Y,Mcnamara P,Wu Y,et al.An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu District,Beijing,China[J]. J Environ Manage,2013,128(20):324-334. |
[4] | Mozumder C,Tripathi N K.Geospatial scenario based modelling of urban and agricultural intrusions in Ramsar wetland Deepor Beel in Northeast India using a multi-layer perceptron neural network[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2014,32(1):92-104. |
[5] | Rasmussen L V,Rasmussen K,Reenberg A,et al.A system dynamics approach to land use changes in agro-pastoral systems on the desert margins of Sahel[J]. Agricultural Systems,2012,107(1):56-64. |
[6] | Ralha C G,Abreu C G, Coelho C G C, et al. A multi-agent model system for land-use change simulation[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2013,42(4):30-46. |
[7] | Zhang P,Liu Y,Pan Y,et al.Land use pattern optimization based on clue-s and swat models for agricultural non-point source pollution control[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modelling,2013,58(3-4):588-595. |
[8] | Mitsova D,Shuster W,Wang X.A cellular automata model of land cover change to integrate urban growth with open space conservation[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning,2011,99(2):141-153. |
[9] | 高志强,易维. 基于CLUE-S和Dinamica EGO模型的土地利用变化及驱动力分析[J]. 农业工程学报,2012,28(16):208-216. |
[Gao Z Q,Yi W.Land use change in China and analysis of its driving forces using CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(16):208-216.] | |
[10] | Arsanjani J J,Helbich M,Kainz W,et al.Integration of logistic regression,Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2013,21(4):265-275. |
[11] | Verstegen J A,Karssenberg D,Hilst F V D, et al. Identifying a land use change cellular automaton by Bayesian data assimilation[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2014,53(1):121-136. |
[12] | Rienow A,Goetzke R.Supporting sleuth-enhancing a cellular automaton with support vector machines for urban growth modeling[J]. Computers,Environment and Urban Systems,2015,49:66-81. |
[13] | Guan Q L W,Clarke K C. An artificial-neural-network-based,constrained CA model for simulating urban growth[J]. Carto-graphy & Geographic Information Science,2005,32(4):369-380. |
[14] | 张亦汉,黎夏,刘小平,等. 基于数据同化的元胞自动机[J]. 遥感学报,2011,15(3):475-491. |
[Zhang Y H,Li X,Liu X P,et al.CA model based on data assimilation[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing,2011,15(3):475-491.] | |
[15] | 张亦汉,黎夏,刘小平,等. 耦合遥感观测和元胞自动机的城市扩张模拟[J]. 遥感学报,2013,17(4):872-886. |
[Zhang Y H,Li X,Liu X P,et al.Urban expansion simulation by coupling remote sensing observations and cellular automata[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing,2013,17(4):872-886.] | |
[16] | 黎夏. 协同空间模拟与优化及其在快速城市化地区的应用[J]. 地球信息科学学报,2013,15(3):321-327. |
[Li X.Collaborative spatio-simulation and optimization and its application in fast growing regions[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science,2013,15(3):321-327.] | |
[17] | 周竹,李小昱,李培武,等. 基于GA-LSSVM和近红外傅里叶变换的霉变板栗识别[J]. 农业工程学报,2011,27(3):331-335. |
[Zhou Z,Li X Y,Li P W,et al.Near-infrared spectral detection of moldy chestnut based on GA-LSSVM and FFT[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2011,27(3):331-335.] | |
[18] | Mitra V,Wang C,Banerjee S.Text classification:A least square support vector machine approach[J]. Applied Soft Computing Journal,2007,7(3):908-914. |
[19] | Ismail S,Shabri A,Samsudin R.A hybrid model of self-organi-zing maps (SOM)and least square support vector machine (LSSVM)for time-series forecasting[J]. Expert Systems with Appli-cations,2011,38(8):10574-10578. |
[20] | Xu H,Guohua C.An intelligent fault identification method of rolling bearings based on LSSVM optimized by improved PSO[J]. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing,2013,35(1-2):167-175. |
[21] | 曹雪,罗平,李满春,等. 基于扩展CA模型的土地利用变化时空模拟研究-以深圳市为例[J]. 资源科学,2011,33(1):127-133. |
[Cao Z,Luo P,Li M C,et al.Spatio-temporal simulation of land use change based on an extended CA model:A case study of Shenzhen City,China[J]. Resources Science,2011,33(1):127-133.] | |
[22] | Wang H,Hu D.Comparison of SVM and LS-SVM for Regression[R]. Beijing:2005 International Conference on Neural Networks and Brain,2005. |
[23] | Kirkpatrick S,Gelatt J C D,Vecchi M P. Optimization by simulated annealing[J]. Science (New York,N.Y.),1983,220(4598):671-680. |
[24] | Xavier-De-Souza S,Suykens J A K,Vandewalle J,et al. Coupled simulated annealing[J]. IEEE Transactions On Systems,Man,and Cybernetics,Part B (Cybernetics),2010,34(2):320-335. |
[25] | 王霞,王占岐,金贵,等. 基于核函数支持向量回归机的耕地面积预测[J]. 农业工程学报,2014,30(4):204-211. |
[Wang X,Wang Z Q,Jin G,et al.Land reserve prediction using different kernel based support vector regression[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(4):204-211.] | |
[26] | Huang Y,Mccoll W F.An Improved Simplex Method for Function Minimization[C]. Beijing:IEEE International Conference,1996. |
[27] | Wang P C,Shoup T E.Parameter sensitivity study of the Nelder-Mead Simplex Method[J]. Advances in Engineering Software,2011,42(7):529-533. |
[28] | 黎夏,叶嘉安,廖其芳. 利用案例推理(CBR)方法对雷达图像进行土地利用分类[J]. 遥感学报,2004,8(3):246-253. |
[Li X,Ye J A,Liao Q F. Case-Based Reasoning (CBR)for land use classification using radar images[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing,2004,8(3):246-253.] | |
[29] | Madevska-Bogdanova A,Nikolik D,Curfs L.Probabilistic SVM outputs for pattern recognition using analytical geometry[J]. Neurocomputing,2004,62(1):293-303. |
[30] | 黎夏,叶嘉安. 基于神经网络的元胞自动机及模拟复杂土地利用系统[J]. 地理研究,2005,24(1):19-27. |
[Li X,Ye J A.Cellular automata for simulating complex land use systems using neural networks[J]. Geographical Research,2005,24(1):19-27.] | |
[31] | Sangermano F,Eastman J R,Zhu H.Similarity weighted instance-based learning for the generation of transition potentials in land use change modeling[J]. Transactions in GIS,2010,14(5):569-580. |
[32] | Pontius R G,Parmentier B.Recommendations for using the relative operating characteristic (ROC)[J]. Landscape Ecology,2014,29(3):367-382. |
[33] | 肖明,吴季秋,陈秋波,等. 基于CA-Markov模型的昌化江流域土地利用动态变化[J]. 农业工程学报,2012,28(10):231-238. |
[Xiao M,Wu J Q,Chen Q B,et al.Dynamic change of land use in Changhua downstream watershed based on CA-Markov model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(10):231-238.] |
[1] | 张雯熹, 邹金浪, 吴群. 生产要素投入对城市土地利用效率的影响——基于不同工业化阶段省级数据[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(7): 1416-1427. |
[2] | 张莉, 刘建杰. 清末民国时期新疆玛纳斯河流域耕地格局重建[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(7): 1428-1437. |
[3] | 商冉, 曲衍波, 姜怀龙. 人地关系视角下农村居民点转型的时空特征与形成机理[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(4): 672-684. |
[4] | 郭贝贝, 方叶林, 周寅康. 农户尺度的耕地撂荒影响因素及空间分异[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(4): 696-709. |
[5] | 陈琼, 张镱锂, 刘峰贵, 周强, 汪生珍, 成艺, 郭蓉, 支泽民, 许寰戈. 黄河流域河源区土地利用变化及其影响研究综述[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(3): 446-459. |
[6] | 何宗菲, 於家, 陈芸, 温家洪, 尹占娥. 城市建设用地的潜在生态适宜性评价——以上海市宝山区为例[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(3): 558-569. |
[7] | 杨丽雯, 王大勇, 王勇智, 梁泽, 吴舒尧, 李双成. 涑水河流域土壤保持服务供需关系量化评估[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(12): 2451-2462. |
[8] | 孟阳阳, 何志斌, 刘冰, 陈龙飞, 刘蓓. 干旱区绿洲湿地空间分布及生态系统服务价值变化——以三大典型内陆河流域为例[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(10): 2022-2034. |
[9] | 赵苗苗, 邵蕊, 李仁强, 杨吉林, 徐明. 中国南方旱田转水田后温室气体减排年限预测[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(7): 1286-1294. |
[10] | 杨小艳, 凌宇, 李龙, 陈龙高, 陈龙乾. 基于最坏情景理论的连云港土地利用变化情景模拟[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(6): 1082-1092. |
[11] | 杨建新, 龚健, 高静, 冶琴. 国家中心城市土地利用变化稳定性和系统性特征——以武汉市为例[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(4): 701-716. |
[12] | 陈红, 史云扬, 柯新利, 郝晋珉, 陈爱琪. 生态与经济协调目标下的郑州市土地利用空间优化配置[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(4): 717-728. |
[13] | 王越, 宋戈, 吕冰. 基于多智能体粒子群算法的松嫩平原土地利用格局优化[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(4): 729-739. |
[14] | 朱新华, 钟苏娟. “流空间”视角下高铁对城市土地利用的影响——基于DPSIR-PLS模型分析[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(12): 2262-2273. |
[15] | 邱俊杰, 任倩, 余劲. 农业劳动力老龄化、农业资本投入与土地利用效率——基于鲁豫皖三省固定农户跟踪调查[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(11): 1982-1996. |
|