期望收益、风险预期及农户宅基地退出行为——基于上海市松江区、金山区农户的实证分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.08.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从宅基地退出过程中农户的期望收益及退出后的风险预期两个方面对宅基地退出行为进行分析,构建农户宅基地退出行为分析框架,运用二元Probit模型分析农民宅基地退出行为及其影响因素,为建立自愿、有偿的宅基地退出制度提供借鉴。研究结果显示:①农户的年龄、兼业时间、家庭年均收入均显著正向影响农户宅基地退出行为;宅基地块数对农户的宅基地退出行为具有负向显著影响;②期望收益的影响因素中,补偿金能够全部兑现,会促进农户做出退出宅基地的行为;农户认为补偿合理会推动农户的宅基地退出行为;宅基地退出后村集体获得的收益比重更小、农户获得的收益比重更大,会推动农户的宅基地退出行为;③风险预期因素中,退出宅基地后房屋面积减少,农户宅基地的财产性收入功能消失,面临着房屋价值降低的风险,阻碍了农户的宅基地退出行为;生活成本增加、宅基地退出后工作变得更不稳定,会抑制农户做出退出宅基地的行为。因此:宅基地退出过程中,补偿金能够全部兑现、补偿越合理、期望收益越高,将促进农户的宅基地退出行为;宅基地退出后面临的风险越高,将阻碍农户的宅基地退出行为。所以,政府在制定宅基地自愿、有偿退出制度时应充分考虑农户宅基地退出过程中的期望收益和退出后的风险。

关键词: 期望收益, 风险预期, 宅基地退出, 农户, 上海市

Abstract:

We analyzed homestead exiting behavior,expected returns and the expecting risks using a binary Probit regression model and looking at farmers in Shanghai. Our goal was to provide a reference for establishing voluntary and compensatory homestead exiting systems. We found that the age of farmers,part-time months and annual household income significantly positively impact farmer residential quitting behavior. The plot number of residential land has a significant negative influence on farmer homestead quitting. Whether farmers can collect all compensation has a negative impact on farmers’ willingness to quit; if compensation can be given to farmers,farmers show greater willingness to withdraw from the homestead. When farmers consider compensation to be reasonable,they are more willing to withdraw from the household. Regarding risk,after withdrawing residential land and housing area reductions （which results in negative effect that the household land property income for farmers disappear）,when households face a risk of reducing the value of housing the willingness to quit weakens. When the cost of living increases,farmers’ jobs becoming more unstable and both of these factors negatively impact farmer behavior to withdraw from residential land. If compensation can be given to farmers and the compensation is reasonable,farmers share the expected return of the process of residential land quitting and are more willing to withdraw from residential land. However,the higher the risk associated with quitting residential land,the less willing farmers are to quitting. Farmers are more willing to keep the original homestead and production methods in order to reduce risk. Therefore,the government should consider the farmers’ expected returns and risks during the process of residential quitting.

Key words: expected return, risk expectation, residential land quitting, farmers, Shanghai City

张婷, 张安录, 邓松林. 期望收益、风险预期及农户宅基地退出行为——基于上海市松江区、金山区农户的实证分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(8): 1503-1514.

ZHANG Ting,ZHANG Anlu,DENG Songlin. Expected return,risk expectation and residential land quitting behavior among farmers in Songjiang and Jinshan Districts,Shanghai[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(8): 1503-1514.

图/表 5

表1

变量设定、说明及赋值"

变量设定	代码	变量说明及赋值	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
因变量
是否退出宅基地	y	1=是,0=否	0.851	0.357	0	1
农户个体特征
年龄/岁	x1	1=≤30,2=31~40,3=41~50,4=51~60,5=>60	57	0.909	25	81
教育程度	x2	1=小学及以下,2=初中,3=高中及以上	1.893	0.782	1.000	3.000
兼业时间/月	x3	1=0~3,2=4~6,3=7~9,4=10~12	8.4	1.422	0	12
农户家庭特征
家庭年均收入/万元	x4	1=<15,2=15~30,3=31~45,4=>45	13.5	1.086	1.0	100.0
家庭所辖区	x5	1=金山区,0=松江区	0.393	0.490	0	1.000
宅基地块数/块	x6	实际数据	1.286	0.453	1.000	2.000
宅基地面积/m²	x7	1=0~100,2=101~200,3=201~300,4>300	210	0.833	50	500
农地是否被征收	x8	1=是,0=否	0.839	0.368	0	1
期望收益
宅基地退出补偿金/万元	x9	1=≤10,2=11~20,3=21~30,4=≥31	23.6	0.953	7.0	50.0
补偿是否兑现	x10	1=全部兑现（≥90%）,2=部分兑现（50%~90%）, 3=没有兑现（≤50%）	2.232	0.579	1.000	3.000
补偿是否合理	x11	1=是,0=否	0.482	0.501	0	1.000
宅基地收益村分配比（集体:农户）	x12	1=0 $∶$ 10,2=1 $∶$ 9,3=2 $∶$ 8	1.375	0.644	1.000	3.000
风险预期
住房是否搬迁	x13	1=是,0=否	0.815	0.389	0	1.000
退出后房屋面积是否增加	x14	1=是,0=否	0.506	0.501	0	1.000
是否有城市住宅	x15	1=是,0=否	0.173	0.379	0	1.000
生活开支是否增加	x16	1=是,0=否	0.762	0.427	0	1.000
工作稳定程度	x17	1=变好了很多,2=变好了一点,3=一样, 4=变差了一点,5=变差了很多	2.798	1.265	1.000	5.000

表1

表2

宅基地退出行为及其影响因素的基本特征"

变量	受访者	占比/%	变量	受访者	占比/%
年龄/岁	≤30	1.79	补偿金/万元	≤10.0	11.30
	31~40	3.57		11.0~20.0	13.10
	41~50	18.45		21.0~30.0	31.55
	51~60	42.86		≥31.0	44.05
	≥61	33.33	补偿是否兑现	全部兑现	3.57
教育程度	小学及以下	36.30		部分兑现	47.62
	初中	38.10		没有兑现	48.81
	高中及以上	25.60	补偿是否合理	否	34.52
兼业时间/月	0~3	38.09		是	65.48
	4~6	4.17	宅基地收益分配比	0 $∶$ 10	54.76
	7~9	5.36		1 $∶$ 09	10.72
	10~12	52.38		2 $∶$ 08	34.52
家庭年均收入/万元	≤15.0	22.03	住房是否搬迁	否	11.31
	16.0~30.0	22.62	住房是否搬迁	是	88.69
	31.0~45.0	30.95	退出后房屋面积是否增加	否	49.40
	>45.0	24.40	退出后房屋面积是否增加	是	50.60
所辖区	松江区	42.26	是否有城市住宅	否	82.74
所辖区	金山区	57.74	是否有城市住宅	是	17.26
宅基地块数/块	1	52.38	生活开支是否增加	否	23.81
宅基地块数/块	2	47.62	生活开支是否增加	是	76.19
面积/m²	≤100	5.35	工作稳定程度	变好了很多	18.45
	101~200	38.69		变好了一点	26.19
	201~300	14.29		一样	22.62
	>300	41.67		变差了一点	22.62
农地是否征收	否	16.07		变差了很多	10.12
农地是否征收	是	83.93

表2

表3

表4

表5

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变量	VIF	1/VIF	变量	VIF	1/VIF
x6	2.13	0.470	x9	1.21	0.825
x16	2.09	0.478	x4	1.20	0.835
x1	2.04	0.491	x8	1.18	0.846
x3	1.90	0.526	x10	1.16	0.858
x7	1.78	0.562	x15	1.16	0.864
x14	1.74	0.574	x12	1.14	0.874
x2	1.40	0.715	x17	1.14	0.875
x13	1.36	0.736	x11	1.07	0.938
x5	1.35	0.738	均值VIF	1.47	0.680

内生性检验
Ho:variables are exogenous
Robust score chi2（1）=0.819	（p=0.365 5）
Robust regression F（1,153）=0.837	（p=0.361 7）

变量	估计系数	标准差	概率值
个体特征
年龄（x1）	0.643**	0.286	0.025
教育程度（x2）	-0.053	0.265	0.840
兼业时间（x3）	0.311*	0.183	0.090
家庭特征
家庭年均收入（x4）	0.380**	0.179	0.034
所辖区（x5）	-0.812*	0.510	0.110
宅基地块数（x6）	-2.172***	0.539	0.000
宅基地面积（x7）	0.208	0.283	0.462
农地是否征收（x8）	-0.078	0.667	0.907
期望收益
补偿金（x9）	0.264	0.230	0.251
补偿是否兑现（x10）	-1.058***	0.413	0.010
补偿合理（x11）	0.613*	0.370	0.098
宅基地收益分配比（x12）	-0.875***	0.301	0.004
风险预期
住房是否搬迁（x13）	1.519***	0.540	0.005
退出后房屋面积是否增加（x14）	1.599***	0.504	0.001
是否有城市住宅（x15）	-0.054	0.564	0.924
生活开支是否增加（x16）	-2.203***	0.617	0.000
工作稳定程度（x17）	-0.440**	0.194	0.023
常数项	4.319	2.800	0.123
Wald chi2（17）	60.25
Prob>chi2	0.000
Pseudo R²	0.596 3
Log pseudo likelihood	-28.525 492