资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (7): 1383-1394.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.07.18
收稿日期:
2015-11-09
修回日期:
2016-03-14
出版日期:
2016-07-25
发布日期:
2016-07-25
作者简介:
作者简介:何凌云,女,甘肃陇西人,教授,研究方向为能源与环境金融。E-mail:
基金资助:
HE Lingyun1(), YANG Xuejie1(
), YIN Fang1, ZHONG Zhangqi2
Received:
2015-11-09
Revised:
2016-03-14
Online:
2016-07-25
Published:
2016-07-25
摘要:
在分析能源价格和资源税杠杆对碳排放的影响路径基础上,通过构建调节作用模型,借助于岭回归估计方法测量了2001-2013年两大杠杆的减排效应,并比较了其差异性。在此基础上,进一步从两大杠杆的整组压缩以及“税收-价格”传导视角出发考察了两大杠杆对碳排放的综合作用,分析了作用的动态变化特征以及相关政策在杠杆作用发挥过程中的有效性。结果表明:①两大杠杆均能通过经济发展的总量、结构、效率维度产生有效的碳抑制效应,但总体作用不高,分别为0.1162和0.0869,价格杠杆的作用优于资源税杠杆的作用;②两大杠杆共同作用时的减排效应优于单一杠杆的作用,效率路径的减排效应大于结构路径的作用;③价格和资源税杠杆的减排效应具有显著的动态性,并在很大程度上受到政策的影响。
何凌云, 杨雪杰, 尹芳, 钟章奇. 能源价格及资源税杠杆的减排效应比较研究[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(7): 1383-1394.
HE Lingyun,YANG Xuejie,YIN Fang,ZHONG Zhangqi. Comparison of the carbon emission reduction effects of energy prices and resource tax[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(7): 1383-1394.
表1
能源价格对碳排放调节作用"
系数 路径 | Z | R2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y | 0.479 6 | - | - | 0.479 6 | 0.994 5 |
[10.528 6] | [10.528 6] | ||||
S | - | 0.101 7 | - | 0.101 7 | 0.994 9 |
[2.916 8] | [2.916 8] | ||||
E | - | - | -0.216 4 | -0.216 4 | 0.996 5 |
[-3.006 9] | [-3.006 9] | ||||
Y+S | 0.325 5 | -0.144 1 | - | 0.324 4 | 0.994 9 |
[9.382 9] | [-2.085 9] | [9.923 9] | |||
Y+E | 0.442 9 | - | -0.224 7 | 0.114 9 | 0.995 2 |
[7.724 8] | [-2.613 7] | [21.170 7] | |||
S+E | - | 0.068 3 | 0.076 7 | 1.859 8 | 0.981 0 |
[1.636 8] | [2.153 9] | [9.574 6] | |||
Y+S+E | 0.442 4 | -0.023 7 | -0.224 6 | -0.116 2 | 0.995 2 |
[6.870 1] | [-2.375 4] | [-2.346 6] | [20.457 3] |
表2
煤炭资源税对碳排放的调节作用"
系数 路径 | Z | R2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y | 0.150 8 | - | - | 0.150 8 | 0.974 9 |
[9.569 9] | [9.569 9] | ||||
S | - | 0.223 7 | - | 0.223 7 | 0.968 5 |
[4.532 9] | [4.532 9] | ||||
E | - | - | 0.158 3 | 0.158 3 | 0.970 1 |
[6.377 8] | [6.377 8] | ||||
Y+S | 0.185 4 | -0.434 1 | - | 0.184 4 | 0.997 9 |
[10.826 7] | [-5.226 7] | [11.326 5] | |||
Y+E | 0.090 8 | - | 0.087 1 | 0.063 0 | 0.968 7 |
[8.153 1] | [6.093 9] | [12.045 1] | |||
S+E | - | 0.099 2 | -0.094 1 | -0.090 6 | 0.998 1 |
[1.521 3] | [-4.254 8] | [4.206 9] | |||
Y+S+E | 0.251 2 | -0.206 1 | -0.200 1 | -0.086 9 | 0.997 9 |
[8.507 8] | [-2.910 8] | [-5.086 3] | [22.612 8] |
表3
整组变量对碳排放的调节作用"
系数 路径 | Z | R2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y | 0.314 3 | - | - | 0.314 3 | 0.994 0 |
[11.058 4] | [11.058 4] | ||||
S | - | 0.094 2 | - | 0.094 2 | 0.997 2 |
[1.544 4] | [1.544 4] | ||||
E | - | - | -0.237 8 | -0.237 8 | 0.988 4 |
[5.764 0] | [5.764 0] | ||||
Y+S | 0.354 5 | -0.191 7 | - | -0.034 1 | 0.998 1 |
[7.223 1] | [-2.553 2] | [7.627 9] | |||
Y+E | 0.416 4 | - | -0.209 2 | -0.115 5 | 0.997 5 |
[5.903 9] | [-2.075 9] | [14.256 7] | |||
S+E | - | 0.210 0 | -0.167 9 | -0.018 4 | 0.987 7 |
[0.157 2] | [4.360 6] | [5.384 2] | |||
Y+S+E | 0.467 0 | -0.035 9 | -0.277 9 | -0.012 0 | 0.998 1 |
[5.485 7] | [-0.536 1] | [-2.316 8] | [13.956 7] |
表4
能源价格及资源税杠杆对碳排放的综合作用"
系数 路径 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y | 0.660 2 | - | - | -0.055 6 | 0.993 0 |
[11.009 7] | [1.206 5] | ||||
S | - | 0.696 7 | - | -0.044 2 | 0.995 0 |
[1.764 5] | [-1.042 4] | ||||
E | - | - | -0.348 0 | -0.037 3 | 0.999 0 |
[-4.449 0] | [-0.887 8] | ||||
Y+S | 0.662 4 | -0.165 0 | -0.052 3 | 0.998 9 | |
[9.811 4] | [-2.983 0] | [-1.098 0] | |||
Y+E | 0.665 7 | - | -0.362 1 | -0.048 4 | 0.999 0 |
[9.747 9] | [-4.084 1] | [-1.010 8] | |||
S+E | - | 0.193 8 | -0.347 5 | -0.038 7 | 0.999 0 |
[4.310 0] | [-3.982 3] | [-0.817 3] | |||
Y+S+E | 0.672 8 | -0.047 6 | -0.365 9 | -0.062 8 | 0.999 0 |
[8.833 4] | [-0.476 8] | [-3.507 0] | [-1.921 6] |
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