能源价格及资源税杠杆的减排效应比较研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.07.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在分析能源价格和资源税杠杆对碳排放的影响路径基础上,通过构建调节作用模型,借助于岭回归估计方法测量了2001-2013年两大杠杆的减排效应,并比较了其差异性。在此基础上,进一步从两大杠杆的整组压缩以及“税收-价格”传导视角出发考察了两大杠杆对碳排放的综合作用,分析了作用的动态变化特征以及相关政策在杠杆作用发挥过程中的有效性。结果表明：①两大杠杆均能通过经济发展的总量、结构、效率维度产生有效的碳抑制效应,但总体作用不高,分别为0.1162和0.0869,价格杠杆的作用优于资源税杠杆的作用;②两大杠杆共同作用时的减排效应优于单一杠杆的作用,效率路径的减排效应大于结构路径的作用;③价格和资源税杠杆的减排效应具有显著的动态性,并在很大程度上受到政策的影响。

关键词: 能源价格, 资源税, 碳减排

Abstract:

Based on the analysis of the influence of energy price and resource tax on carbon emissions,we used regulatory models and ridge regression to estimate and compare the reduction effect of energy price and resource tax on carbon emissions from 2001 to 2013. We compressed energy price and resource tax as a comprehensive variable,considered the transmission process of ‘resource tax to energy price’,and then estimated the comprehensive emission reduction effect of these two levers. The dynamic effect of the two levers and the effectiveness of related policies of regulation were then analyzed. We found that through the economic aggregate （economic structure and energy efficiency path） both of the levers can lead to carbon emission reductions;however,the effect is small and 0.1162 and 0.0869,respectively. In contrast,the effect of energy price is higher than that of resource tax. The comprehensive effect of the two levers through structure and efficiency is 0.0359 and 0.2779 respectively,which is higher than that of a single lever;furthermore,the effect of the price lever through structure and efficiency is 0.0237 and 0.2246,respectively,which is 0.2061 and 0.200 for resource tax. The effect of efficiency is more significant than structure. In comparison,the structural path is more effective for energy price and the efficiency path is more effective for resource tax. The carbon emission reduction effect of the two levers is dynamic and greatly influenced by related polices. Since the implementation of policies is influenced by many factors and there is a time lag effect,emission reduction effects of related levers may be insignificant. Emission reduction is a systematic project and requires coordination among different policy tools.

Key words: energy price, resource tax, carbon emission reduction

何凌云, 杨雪杰, 尹芳, 钟章奇. 能源价格及资源税杠杆的减排效应比较研究[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(7): 1383-1394.

HE Lingyun,YANG Xuejie,YIN Fang,ZHONG Zhangqi. Comparison of the carbon emission reduction effects of energy prices and resource tax[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(7): 1383-1394.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

能源价格对碳排放调节作用"

系数路径	$β 1$	$β 2$	$β 3$	Z	R²
Y	0.479 6	-	-	0.479 6	0.994 5
Y	[10.528 6]	-	-	[10.528 6]	0.994 5
S	-	0.101 7	-	0.101 7	0.994 9
S	-	[2.916 8]	-	[2.916 8]	0.994 9
E	-	-	-0.216 4	-0.216 4	0.996 5
E	-	-	[-3.006 9]	[-3.006 9]	0.996 5
Y+S	0.325 5	-0.144 1	-	0.324 4	0.994 9
Y+S	[9.382 9]	[-2.085 9]	-	[9.923 9]	0.994 9
Y+E	0.442 9	-	-0.224 7	0.114 9	0.995 2
Y+E	[7.724 8]	-	[-2.613 7]	[21.170 7]	0.995 2
S+E	-	0.068 3	0.076 7	1.859 8	0.981 0
S+E	-	[1.636 8]	[2.153 9]	[9.574 6]	0.981 0
Y+S+E	0.442 4	-0.023 7	-0.224 6	-0.116 2	0.995 2
Y+S+E	[6.870 1]	[-2.375 4]	[-2.346 6]	[20.457 3]	0.995 2

表1

表2

煤炭资源税对碳排放的调节作用"

系数路径	$δ 1$	$δ 2$	$δ 3$	Z	R²
Y	0.150 8	-	-	0.150 8	0.974 9
Y	[9.569 9]	-	-	[9.569 9]	0.974 9
S	-	0.223 7	-	0.223 7	0.968 5
S	-	[4.532 9]	-	[4.532 9]	0.968 5
E	-	-	0.158 3	0.158 3	0.970 1
E	-	-	[6.377 8]	[6.377 8]	0.970 1
Y+S	0.185 4	-0.434 1	-	0.184 4	0.997 9
Y+S	[10.826 7]	[-5.226 7]	-	[11.326 5]	0.997 9
Y+E	0.090 8	-	0.087 1	0.063 0	0.968 7
Y+E	[8.153 1]	-	[6.093 9]	[12.045 1]	0.968 7
S+E	-	0.099 2	-0.094 1	-0.090 6	0.998 1
S+E	-	[1.521 3]	[-4.254 8]	[4.206 9]	0.998 1
Y+S+E	0.251 2	-0.206 1	-0.200 1	-0.086 9	0.997 9
Y+S+E	[8.507 8]	[-2.910 8]	[-5.086 3]	[22.612 8]	0.997 9

表2

表3

整组变量对碳排放的调节作用"

系数路径	$θ 1$	$θ 2$	$θ 3$	Z	R²
Y	0.314 3	-	-	0.314 3	0.994 0
Y	[11.058 4]	-	-	[11.058 4]	0.994 0
S	-	0.094 2	-	0.094 2	0.997 2
S	-	[1.544 4]	-	[1.544 4]	0.997 2
E	-	-	-0.237 8	-0.237 8	0.988 4
E	-	-	[5.764 0]	[5.764 0]	0.988 4
Y+S	0.354 5	-0.191 7	-	-0.034 1	0.998 1
Y+S	[7.223 1]	[-2.553 2]	-	[7.627 9]	0.998 1
Y+E	0.416 4	-	-0.209 2	-0.115 5	0.997 5
Y+E	[5.903 9]	-	[-2.075 9]	[14.256 7]	0.997 5
S+E	-	0.210 0	-0.167 9	-0.018 4	0.987 7
S+E	-	[0.157 2]	[4.360 6]	[5.384 2]	0.987 7
Y+S+E	0.467 0	-0.035 9	-0.277 9	-0.012 0	0.998 1
Y+S+E	[5.485 7]	[-0.536 1]	[-2.316 8]	[13.956 7]	0.998 1

表3

表4

能源价格及资源税杠杆对碳排放的综合作用"

系数路径	$γ 1$	$γ 2$	$γ 3$	$γ 4$	$R 2$
Y	0.660 2	-	-	-0.055 6	0.993 0
Y	[11.009 7]	-	-	[1.206 5]	0.993 0
S	-	0.696 7	-	-0.044 2	0.995 0
S	-	[1.764 5]	-	[-1.042 4]	0.995 0
E	-	-	-0.348 0	-0.037 3	0.999 0
E	-	-	[-4.449 0]	[-0.887 8]	0.999 0
Y+S	0.662 4	-0.165 0		-0.052 3	0.998 9
Y+S	[9.811 4]	[-2.983 0]		[-1.098 0]	0.998 9
Y+E	0.665 7	-	-0.362 1	-0.048 4	0.999 0
Y+E	[9.747 9]	-	[-4.084 1]	[-1.010 8]	0.999 0
S+E	-	0.193 8	-0.347 5	-0.038 7	0.999 0
S+E	-	[4.310 0]	[-3.982 3]	[-0.817 3]	0.999 0
Y+S+E	0.672 8	-0.047 6	-0.365 9	-0.062 8	0.999 0
Y+S+E	[8.833 4]	[-0.476 8]	[-3.507 0]	[-1.921 6]	0.999 0

表4

表5

图3

表6

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	系数	标准差	P值
C（1）	0.988 862	0.823 481	0.229 8
C（2）	-7.981 203	0.645 721	0.000 0
	最终状态	根均方误差	P值
SV_P×Y	1.362 974	0.046 780	0.000 0
SV_ P×S	-0.270 411	0.065 955	0.000 0
SV_ P×E	-0.821 606	0.075 148	0.000 0
SV_ CRT×P	0.007 209	0.043 041	0.867 0

路径	最小值	最大值	均值
SV_P×Y	0.730 0	1.400 0	1.086 3
SV_P×S	-0.310 0	0.250 0	-0.083 2
SV_P×E	-0.930 0	0.850 0	-0.250 8
SV_CRT×P	-0.250 0	0.100 0	-0.009 2