资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (7): 1323-1335.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.07.13

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流域水利发展水平评价方法研究 ——以淮河流域为例

吴丹()   

  1. 北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京 100144
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-13 修回日期:2015-09-22 出版日期:2016-07-25 发布日期:2016-07-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴丹,男,江西抚州人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为水管理与政策、战略规划与资源配置、管理决策理论与应用。E-mail:wu_daniel@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDB164);北方工业大学—清华大学合作项目(20160099);北方工业大学优势(建设)学科项目(XN081)

Modeling an evaluation method of water conservancy development in Huaihe River Basin

WU Dan()   

  1. School of Economics and Management,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China
  • Received:2015-04-13 Revised:2015-09-22 Online:2016-07-25 Published:2016-07-25

摘要:

通过综合评价不同时期流域水利发展水平的差异,分析影响流域水利发展水平的主要因素,对推动流域水利建设与水资源可持续利用具有重要的意义。本文剖析了流域社会经济发展与水利发展之间的互动机理,分析影响流域水利发展水平的主要影响因素,提出从水资源利用、水环境保护、水生态修复以及水灾害防治四个维度,明确流域水利发展目标体系,设计流域水利发展水平评价指标体系,并采用加权综合指数法、理想解模型和协调度评价法,构建流域水利发展水平动态评价模型,动态评价流域内各地区之间的水利发展水平与协同发展效度。之后,应用该模型实证分析了淮河流域及沿淮各省水利发展指数动态变化趋势,确定了各维度指标对水利发展指数的平均贡献度,并对沿淮四省水利发展水平进行对比分析,评价沿淮各省之间水利发展水平的协同发展效度。评价结果显示:①淮河流域四省水利发展指数均有不同程度的提升,按提升速度排序依次为江苏、山东、河南和安徽。按水利发展水平优劣排序为江苏、山东、河南和安徽,评价结果与流域水利发展实践相吻合,进一步验证了该方法的可行性;②淮河流域水资源利用受水资源开发利用率、万元工业增加值用水量、万元GDP用水量、农业灌溉亩均用水量的影响较大,水环境保护受COD排放量、氨氮排放量、万元GDP废水排放量、省界断面水质综合达标率的影响较大,水生态修复受水土流失综合治理率的影响较大,水灾害防治受水旱灾害成灾率的影响较大,该方法从综合视角对流域水利发展水平进行评价,弥补了已有成果单一视角分析的不足。

关键词: 水利发展水平, 评价指标体系, 理想解模型, 协调度评价法, 淮河流域

Abstract:

Based on water conservancy development for river basins in China and abroad,this study analyzed the interaction mechanism between socio-economic development and water conservancy development in river basins,and the main factors that influence water conservancy development. The article set clear objectives for socio-economic development and water conservancy development,and designs an evaluation index system for water conservancy development in river basins across four dimensions:water resource utilization,water environment protection,water ecological restoration and water disaster prevention. Combined with the weighted composite index method,TOPSIS model and coordinative degree evaluation method,a dynamic evaluation model of water conservancy development in river basins is developed. An empirical analysis was done of the evaluation of the Huaihe River basin in order to analyze dynamic trends in the evaluation index of water conservancy development and the coordinative development degree among regions in this basin in 2000 to 2010. Results illustrate that the index of water conservancy development among four provinces improved from 2000 to 2010. For the growth rate of the index,Jiangsu province has the fastest growth rate,then Shandong,Henan,and Anhui. For the level of water conservancy development in the Huaihe River basin,the highest is Jiangsu,then Shandong,Henan,and Anhui.

Key words: water conservancy development, evaluation, index system, Topsis Model, Coordinative Degree Evaluation, Huaihe River Basin