中国用水量变化的影响因素分析——基于LMDI方法

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.07.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文运用LMDI方法将中国用水量变化的影响因素分解为人口效应、区域人口分布效应、区域经济发达效应、区域产业结构效应和区域技术进步效应。研究发现,技术进步和产业结构调整都是抑制用水量上升的影响因素,但是技术进步更加显著。产业结构效应在各省份第一产业内部影响最大,而技术进步效应却存在较大差异;经济增长是用水量上升的主要推动力,中部最显著;人口规模扩大促进了用水量上升,但是影响较小,而人口分布（流动）变化促进中国用水量上升比较显著。另外,区域经济份额相对变动对用水量的下降起到正向作用,但是各省份之间存在较大差异,东部地区经济份额提高促进了用水量上升。因此,各省份需要加强节水技术创新,更加重视农业节水;优化升级产业结构,由耗水强度大的农业向耗水强度小的第二、三产业转移;东部发达地区加大对中西部欠发达地区资金、技术等支持。

关键词: 用水量, 区域异质性, 人口分布, LMDI, 中国

Abstract:

The LMDI method was used to decompose the factors influencing water use in China into a population effect,regional population distribution effect,regional economic development effect,regional industrial structure effect and regional technical progress effect. We found that technical progress and industrial structural adjustment are two factors inhibiting the increase in water use,especially technical progress. Industrial structural effect of primary industry is the most significant factor in all provinces,but technical progress effect varies across provinces. Economic growth is the main impulse for rising water use which can be seen as the most manifested phenomenon in medium regions. An extended population promotes water use,however little effect working out;population distribution（folw） develops water use in China. Changes in regional economic share exert great influence on decreasing water use,but there is a significant difference between provinces. The rise of the economic share of the eastern region promotes increasing water consumption and proper measures should be taken to solve this unbalanced situation. Provinces should cement water-saving technical innovation and put high value on agricultural water saving. The country should optimize and upgrade industrial structure,transferring agriculture that consumes large sums of water to secondary and tertiary industries with relatively low water use. The eastern region needs to reinforce the financial and technical support towards the lesser developed central and western regions.

Key words: water use, heterogeneity of the regionals, population distribution, LMDI, China

张陈俊, 章恒全, 陈其勇, 张万力. 中国用水量变化的影响因素分析——基于LMDI方法[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(7): 1308-1322.

ZHANG Chenjun,ZHANG Hengquan,CHEN Qiyong,ZHANG Wanli. Factors influencing water use changes based on LMDI Methods[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(7): 1308-1322.

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年份	人口效应	区域人口分布效应	区域经济发达效应	区域产业结构效应	区域技术进步效应	总效应
1998-1999	45.08	3.96	410.54	-160.19	-143.90	155.49
1999-2000	42.00	42.45	410.28	-206.96	-381.08	-93.31
2000-2001	38.44	9.84	441.66	-171.07	-249.01	69.86
2001-2002	35.67	7.05	503.57	-179.75	-436.70	-70.15
2002-2003	32.21	5.48	561.49	-227.62	-627.67	-256.10
2003-2004	31.41	7.74	620.13	-161.06	-273.86	224.37
2004-2005	32.41	12.27	619.53	-219.94	-369.52	74.75
2005-2006	29.66	10.56	673.53	-249.36	-302.74	161.65
2006-2007	29.48	11.52	723.97	-299.87	-454.13	10.97
2007-2008	29.21	3.94	625.39	-200.47	-381.21	76.86
2008-2009	28.35	1.82	619.31	-229.18	-347.91	72.40
2009-2010	28.18	-6.70	709.54	-259.48	-431.54	40.00
2010-2011	28.50	1.76	664.59	-240.71	-361.33	92.81
2011-2012	29.77	0.28	590.21	-192.89	-389.35	38.02
2012-2013	29.79	2.01	530.76	-184.43	-333.12	45.01
1998-2013	490.16	113.99	8 704.51	-3 182.98	-5 483.06	642.63

省份	人口效应	区域人口分布效应	区域经济发达效应	区域产业结构效应	区域技术进步效应	总效应
东部地区
北京	3.02	14.78	35.36	-16.89	-46.28	-10.01
天津	1.90	7.47	34.49	-17.74	-24.79	1.33
河北	17.63	2.76	289.17	-121.78	-227.41	-39.64
辽宁	11.82	-5.50	218.46	-72.23	-159.32	-6.77
上海	9.95	46.61	118.79	-32.27	-134.99	8.09
江苏	43.24	2.57	828.53	-295.53	-425.30	153.50
浙江	17.20	22.85	277.44	-111.41	-214.11	-8.03
福建	16.28	7.33	294.28	-96.53	-194.00	27.37
山东	19.87	0.12	365.89	-167.18	-261.24	-42.54
广东	39.07	136.02	578.82	-249.97	-509.28	-5.33
海南	3.91	3.52	63.48	-12.89	-61.90	-3.88
中部地区
山西	5.11	2.31	88.39	-40.79	-42.56	12.46
吉林	9.35	-6.06	175.06	-59.97	-95.16	23.22
黑龙江	25.60	-23.41	445.37	-138.86	-265.73	42.97
安徽	19.60	-28.37	393.75	-118.09	-152.46	114.43
江西	18.94	-4.36	344.68	-109.00	-191.61	58.64
河南	18.69	-17.60	342.72	-101.34	-241.24	1.23
湖北	23.04	-30.12	438.87	-112.26	-260.84	58.68
湖南	27.71	-21.21	517.16	-172.59	-331.99	19.09
西部地区
内蒙古	14.81	-5.39	352.63	-192.64	-158.39	11.03
广西	25.60	-25.20	486.97	-169.14	-303.57	14.67
重庆	6.02	-6.77	134.00	-15.02	-88.91	29.32
四川	18.59	-30.05	377.82	-111.23	-219.36	35.78
贵州	8.11	-13.76	159.19	-39.35	-108.65	5.54
云南	12.76	4.17	203.66	-71.98	-146.74	1.86
西藏	2.58	3.58	46.51	-30.87	-7.94	13.86
陕西	6.97	-3.99	142.67	-56.91	-80.26	8.49
甘肃	10.46	-8.43	184.57	-73.25	-114.25	-0.89
青海	2.52	1.26	45.89	-23.13	-25.40	1.13
宁夏	6.77	7.70	110.38	-63.95	-87.21	-26.30
新疆	43.04	81.17	609.49	-288.20	-302.17	143.33

地区	人口效应	区域人口分布效应	区域经济发达效应	区域产业结构效应	区域技术进步效应	总效应
东部	16.72	21.69	282.25	-108.58	-205.33	6.74
中部	18.51	-16.10	343.25	-106.61	-197.70	41.34
西部	13.19	0.36	237.82	-94.64	-136.90	19.82

年份	区域产业结构效应			区域技术进步效应
年份	第一产业	第二产业	第三产业	第一产业	第二产业	第三产业
1998-1999	-173.10	5.56	7.35	-39.41	-70.34	-34.15
1999-2000	-225.61	7.94	10.70	-198.85	-132.31	-49.93
2000-2001	-189.56	8.92	9.57	-102.90	-108.92	-37.18
2001-2002	-202.15	19.13	3.27	-256.90	-133.98	-45.82
2002-2003	-260.69	38.62	-5.56	-441.22	-134.04	-52.41
2003-2004	-183.50	30.89	-8.45	-92.67	-129.74	-51.45
2004-2005	-243.54	23.49	0.12	-194.21	-118.58	-56.73
2005-2006	-275.89	28.44	-1.91	-96.31	-138.90	-67.53
2006-2007	-326.72	26.40	0.45	-220.09	-154.44	-79.60
2007-2008	-218.51	16.69	1.35	-133.21	-183.56	-64.44
2008-2009	-247.46	17.34	0.94	-101.83	-181.14	-64.94
2009-2010	-289.43	43.43	-13.48	-200.94	-166.51	-64.09
2010-2011	-260.89	27.74	-7.56	-121.87	-181.51	-57.95
2011-2012	-204.73	13.30	-1.47	-56.61	-197.45	-135.29
2012-2013	-194.55	9.16	0.97	-128.00	-157.62	-47.50
1998-2013	-3 496.33	317.06	-3.71	-2 385.00	-2 189.04	-909.01

省份	区域产业结构效应			区域技术进步效应
省份	第一产业	第二产业	第三产业	第一产业	第二产业	第三产业
东部地区
北京	-17.48	-0.75	1.33	-11.36	-16.05	-18.87
天津	-17.79	1.07	-1.02	-4.62	-11.54	-8.64
河北	-127.20	4.34	1.08	-146.51	-45.68	-35.22
辽宁	-75.25	4.25	-1.23	-71.24	-51.58	-36.50
上海	-27.42	-7.51	2.66	-4.47	-106.07	-24.44
江苏	-324.09	26.55	2.00	-83.23	-269.17	-72.90
浙江	-119.31	3.14	4.77	-89.40	-83.76	-40.95
福建	-115.49	21.32	-2.36	-77.45	-97.04	-19.50
山东	-173.65	7.37	-0.91	-144.38	-73.73	-43.14
广东	-269.87	21.93	-2.02	-164.71	-243.31	-101.26
海南	-14.71	1.24	0.59	-47.13	-7.18	-7.59
中部地区
山西	-43.02	2.34	-0.10	-7.96	-23.75	-10.85
吉林	-67.24	7.60	-0.33	-45.12	-33.55	-16.50
黑龙江	-146.21	6.10	1.25	-103.66	-135.71	-26.36
安徽	-150.09	33.99	-1.99	-36.64	-93.42	-22.40
江西	-129.78	25.76	-4.98	-77.58	-91.29	-22.75
河南	-113.62	13.91	-1.64	-126.86	-68.19	-46.19
湖北	-142.60	29.19	1.15	-61.46	-162.38	-37.01
湖南	-201.50	27.44	1.46	-154.44	-112.97	-64.58
西部地区
内蒙古	-198.28	7.41	-1.76	-114.50	-23.79	-20.09
广西	-187.60	20.19	-1.72	-154.30	-90.59	-58.68
重庆	-25.28	14.81	-4.54	-6.40	-64.29	-18.22
四川	-132.29	24.81	-3.74	-68.31	-112.60	-38.45
贵州	-49.78	5.45	4.98	-31.70	-47.43	-29.52
云南	-77.36	3.95	1.43	-86.15	-32.19	-28.41
西藏	-31.64	0.60	0.17	-2.62	-1.20	-4.12
陕西	-59.79	3.45	-0.57	-37.95	-25.06	-17.25
甘肃	-76.74	2.50	0.99	-68.66	-32.04	-13.54
青海	-24.44	1.72	-0.42	-10.62	-10.11	-4.67
宁夏	-65.18	1.58	-0.35	-75.74	-9.19	-2.27
新疆	-291.65	1.33	2.12	-269.81	-14.19	-18.17