资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 1169-1178.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.06.16

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人口规模与废污水排放量关系的动态稳定性研究

李崇梅1(), 傅崇辉2()   

  1. 1. 四川农业大学,雅安 625014
    2. 广东医科大学,东莞 523808
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-20 修回日期:2016-03-05 出版日期:2016-06-20 发布日期:2016-06-18
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李崇梅,男,湖南邵阳人,硕士,讲师,主要研究领域为人口资源环境经济学。E-mail:cqulcm@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    东莞市软科学研究项目(201550425200015)

The dynamic stability of relationships between population size and waste water emissions

LI Chongmei1(), FU Chonghui2()   

  1. 1. Sichuan Agriculture University,Yaan 625014,China
    2. Guangdong Medical University,Dongguan 523808,China
  • Received:2015-04-20 Revised:2016-03-05 Online:2016-06-20 Published:2016-06-18

摘要:

在人口与环境关系的理论框架下,定量分析人口规模与废污水排放量关系的动态稳定性,对于理解中国的水环境变化趋势具有理论参考价值。本文利用中国官方统计数据和省级面板回归模型,通过构建时间交互项和斜率虚拟交互项,分离出人口规模与废污水排放量动态关系的固定效应和进度效应。研究发现,2003-2012年间,人口规模对废污水排放量具有显著性的正向固定效应,人口规模依然是水环境压力的重要因素之一;负向进度效应表明人口规模对废污水排放量的影响有下降趋势,人口数量因素的环境效应正在被人口结构因素所取代;动态分析表明进度效应有逐年下降的变化趋势,中国正进入人口规模与水环境动态稳定的窗口期。人口规模对废污水排放量的进度效应有逐年下降的变化趋势,相关政策应该考虑人口规模与废污水排放量关系的动态变化。

关键词: 人口规模, 固定效应, 进度效应, 废污水, 动态稳定性, 中国

Abstract:

According to the theoretical framework of population-environment relationships,the dynamic stability of relationships between population size and waste water emissions was analyzed qualitatively. This data can help our understanding of future trends in water environments in China. Panel data of waste water,population size and other socioeconomic factors from the National Bureau of Statistics and five province-level panel regression models,in which the year interaction and slope-dummy interactions were constructed,were employed to decompose fixed effects and tempo effects from dynamic relationships between population size and the amount of waster water from 2003 to 2012. The slope-dummy interactions enable models to determine whether a national-level relationships between population and waste water emissions have remained stable,declined,or intensified in recent years. Results indicate that the population size has a large and stable positive association with the amount of waste water,which means that population size is one of the major pressures on water environments among several social drivers. The negative tempo effects reflect that the impact of population size on the amount of waste water is decreasing while the scale effect of population on waste water emissions was gradually substituted by structural effects. This dynamic analysis indicates that the tempo effects are decreasing annually. While the stable phase of relationships between population size and waste water emissions is approaching,population in tandem with other social drivers,remains an important consideration for research that addresses the human dimensions of changes on water environment. Policy making should take into account the dynamic impacts of population size on waste water emissions.

Key words: population size, fixed effect, tempo effect, waste water, dynamic stability, China