资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 1160-1168.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.06.15

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2001-2013年开都河流域上游积雪时空分布特征及其对气象因子的响应

李斐(), 刘苗苗, 王水献()   

  1. 兰州大学资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-12 修回日期:2016-03-12 出版日期:2016-06-20 发布日期:2016-06-18
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李斐,男,甘肃庆阳人,硕士生,主要从事高寒地区气候变化与水文响应方面的研究。E-mail:lifei14@lzu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(lzujbky-2014-207);农业部公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201203006)

Change in snow coverage and responses to climate change from 2001 to 2013 in the upper reaches of Kaidu River Basin

LI Fei(), LIU Miaomiao, WANG Shuixian()   

  1. Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education),College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China
  • Received:2015-11-12 Revised:2016-03-12 Online:2016-06-20 Published:2016-06-18

摘要:

积雪融水是干旱区水资源的重要来源之一,深入地了解积雪面积变化的规律和趋势,有助于准确预测、合理规划干旱区水资源。本研究以新疆开都河流域上游为研究区,利用MOD10A2积雪数据对研究区积雪进行了分带提取,通过线性回归分析和Mann-Kendall秩次相关法对2001-2013年不同季节不同分带积雪日数、积雪面积变化进行了趋势分析和显著性检验。结合降水、气温等气象因素,分析了积雪面积对气象因素变化的响应程度。结果表明:①研究区整体积雪日数平均变化趋势并不明显,B带(海拔2000~2900m)以增加趋势为主,A带(海拔1098~2000m)、C带(海拔2900~3800m)及D带(海拔3800~4794m)以减少趋势为主;②D带积雪面积变化呈双峰曲线,其他各分带及整个区域积雪面积变化以单峰为主,最大值出现在冬季,最小值则出现在夏季;③B带秋季积雪面积显著增加(P<0.01),其他分带积雪面积有减小趋势但并不显著,积雪分布有向B带集中的趋势;④研究区气温、降水分别在春、冬季节与积雪面积相关性显著(P<0.01),对应的变化速率亦明显高于其他季节,这可能导致未来春季径流及春季洪水频率增加。

关键词: 开都河流域, 积雪面积, MODIS, 气温, 降水, 时空分布, 气候变化

Abstract:

Based on precipitation and temperature data for the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin from 1958 to 2013 and MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)snow product data MOD10A2 from 2001 to 2013,we investigated snow coverage dynamics and trends in different seasons and regions using linear regression analysis and non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests from 2001 to 2013. Trends in climate change between precipitation and temperature were analyzed over the past 50 years and correlation analysis between precipitation,temperature and snow coverage data was conducted. We found that all elevation zones show decreasing trends,except for B (2000~2900 m)for which the increasing trend was the main focus. In the whole study zone and all elevation zones except for D (3800~4794m),changes in snow coverage are common single-peak curves in the whole year. The maximum value for snow coverage occurred in winter and the minimum in summer. However,D shows a double-peak curve. Its peak occurred in November and April,and the valley occurred in February. The increasing trend is significant and obvious for annual snow coverage of B in autumn. For other elevation zones,a decreasing trend is dominant. There is a central trend from A (1098~2000m),C (2900~3800m)and D to B. Obvious correlations between snow coverage and precipitation in winter and temperature in spring are clear. There may be an increasing run-off and flood frequency in spring.

Key words: upper reaches of the Kaidu River basin, snow coverage, MODIS, temperature, precipitation, spatial and temporal distribution, climate change