基于Budyko假设的流域蒸散发估算及其对气候与下垫面的敏感性分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.06.13

资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 1140-1148.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.06.13

基于Budyko假设的流域蒸散发估算及其对气候与下垫面的敏感性分析

张丹^1,²(), 梁康³, 聂茸⁴, 顾人颖⁵

1. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京 210098
2. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所流域地理学重点实验室,南京 210008
3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京 100101
4. 中国人民解放军理工大学图书馆,南京 211101
5. 宁波市鄞州区气象局,宁波 315194

收稿日期:2016-01-04 修回日期:2016-05-10 出版日期:2016-06-20 发布日期:2016-06-18
作者简介:
作者简介：张丹,女,河南周口市人,助理研究员,研究方向为水热平衡及其对环境变化的响应。E-mail:nuistgiszd@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41401032）;江苏省自然科学基金项目（BK20141059）;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目（2014490811）

Estimation of evapotranspiration and sensitivity to climate and the underlying surface based on the Budyko Framework

ZHANG Dan^1,²(), LIANG Kang³, NIE Rong⁴, GU Renying⁵

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China
2. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China
3. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
4. PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 211101,China
5. Ningbo Yinzhou Meteorological Bureau,Ningbo 315194,China

Received:2016-01-04 Revised:2016-05-10 Online:2016-06-20 Published:2016-06-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

蒸散发作为水文循环和能量平衡联系的纽带,对全球和区域水文过程起着重要作用。本文基于Budyko假设,采用全国71个典型流域的水文气象资料,分析了不同水热模型对蒸散发估算精度的影响,并进一步阐释了不同气候和植被类型下蒸散发对降水、潜在蒸散发和下垫面特征的敏感性。结果表明：①水热模型加入反映下垫面特征的参数后,蒸散发的估算精度能得到显著的提高;②蒸散发的敏感性分析结果表明,干旱流域蒸散发对降水最为敏感,其次是下垫面参数和潜在蒸散发;湿润流域蒸散发对下垫面参数最为敏感,其次是潜在蒸散发和降水;③对于不同植被类型的流域而言,森林流域和混合流域蒸散发对降水和下垫面参数变化最为敏感,草地流域蒸散发对降水的变化最为敏感。研究结果对于蒸散发的区域性研究、稀缺资料地区水文预报等有重要的参考意义。

关键词: Budyko假设, 蒸散发, 植被, 气候, 下垫面, 敏感性, 流域

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration is a key processes in water cycles and energy balance. In this study,evapotranspiration was estimated based on water-energy balance theory using hydrological and meteorological data from 71 typical catchments in China from 1960 to 2000. Sensitivities for evapotranspiration to precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and characterizations of the underlying surface （represented by parameter α）are further investigated in catchments classified by four groups：under all conditions without parameter α （group 1）,under all conditions with one parameter α （group 2）,under different climate zones （group 3）and different predominant land covers （group 4）. The results show that α at group 2 is 2.202,and smaller in humid catchments than arid catchments in group 3. α at forest catchments in group 4 are the smallest,followed by grass catchments and mixed catchments. The NSE of evapotranspiration estimation by the original Budyko equation is only 0.64 at group 1,which can be improved effectively by adding parameter α. The NSE of evapotranspiration estimation are 0.80,0.81 and 0.83 in group 2,group 3 and group 4,respectively. In particular, the NSE at forest catchments is 0.88. Evapotranspiration in group 3 is most sensitive to precipitation in arid catchments,followed by α and potential evapotranspiration,while it is most sensitive to α in humid catchments,followed by potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In group 4,evapotranspiration is most sensitive to α in forest and mixed catchments,while it is most sensitive to precipitation in grass catchments. The results are helpful for water-energy balance modeling,hydrological predictions in ungauged basins and water management decision-making.

Key words: Budyko framework, evapotranspiration, vegetation, climate, underlying surface, sensitivity, basin

张丹, 梁康, 聂茸, 顾人颖. 基于Budyko假设的流域蒸散发估算及其对气候与下垫面的敏感性分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(6): 1140-1148.

ZHANG Dan,LIANG Kang,NIE Rong,GU Renying. Estimation of evapotranspiration and sensitivity to climate and the underlying surface based on the Budyko Framework[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(6): 1140-1148.

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方案	分组	森林覆盖率 /%	流域个数所占百分比/%	参数 α
Budyko	-	42.6	100.0	-
Fu_1参	-	42.6	100.0	2.202
Fu_2参	干旱	31.3	53.5	2.211
Fu_2参	湿润	55.7	46.5	2.188
Fu_3参	森林	66.4	39.4	2.032
	草地	14.2	23.9	2.252
	混合	35.6	36.6	2.295

方案	分组	决定性系数R²	效率系数 NSE	绝对误差 MAE/mm	相对误差 MRE/%
Budyko	-	0.83	0.64	59.2	13.8
Fu_1参	-	0.83	0.80	45.8	10.4
Fu_2参	干旱	0.55	0.55	35.3	10.2
	湿润	0.76	0.72	57.3	10.6
	全部	0.83	0.81	45.5	10.4
Fu_3参	森林	0.88	0.88	40.5	7.6
	草地	0.56	0.52	41.2	11.6
	混合	0.67	0.61	43.3	10.3
	全部	0.83	0.83	41.7	9.5

方案	分组	降水+10%	降水-10%	潜在蒸散发+10%	潜在蒸散发-10%	α+10%	α-10%
Budyko	-	5.3	-5.9	4.2	-4.8	-	-
Fu_1参	-	5.4	-5.9	4.1	-4.7	5.4	-7.1
Fu_2参	干旱	7.2	-7.7	2.3	-3.0	4.9	-6.6
	湿润	4.0	-4.6	5.5	-6.1	5.8	-7.5
	全部	5.4	-4.8	5.2	-5.7	6.6	-8.7
Fu_3参	森林	4.3	-7.6	2.4	-2.9	4.6	-6.2
	草地	7.2	-6.6	3.5	-4.0	5.0	-6.5
	混合	6.0	-6.6	3.5	-4.0	5.0	-6.5
	全部	5.5	-6.0	4.0	-4.6	5.7	-7.4

类别	1980年	2000年	相对变化
耕地	19.9	20.3	1.9
林地	42.8	42.7	-0.4
草地	32.7	32.4	-0.9
水域	1.1	1.1	1.5
城镇用地	1.2	1.3	7.4
未利用土地	2.3	2.3	-1.8

基于Budyko假设的流域蒸散发估算及其对气候与下垫面的敏感性分析

Estimation of evapotranspiration and sensitivity to climate and the underlying surface based on the Budyko Framework

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