1960-2010年巴尔喀什湖流域干湿特征分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.06.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据巴尔喀什湖流域24个气象站1960-2010年逐月降水资料,在采用Kriging插值分析流域多年平均降水量及降水增率空间分布的基础上,通过SPI、Z、PDECI 3种干湿指标对比印证,分析了巴尔喀什湖流域的年际干湿变化特征、干湿事件发生频次、持续时间以及典型年干湿空间分布特征。研究结果显示：①巴尔喀什湖流域年际干湿交替出现,3个月尺度下的偏旱事件多发生在2-4月,偏涝事件多发生在6-8月;②20世纪70年代以后,湿润事件持续时间逐步增长;进入21世纪,湿润事件发生频次显著增加;3种指标印证结果显示,流域正处在湿润周期内;③ 典型丰、平、枯水年条件下,流域依次呈现“东南干旱、西部湿润”、“东北干旱、东南湿润”、“南部干旱、西部湿润”的干湿空间分布特征。研究成果有助于揭示巴尔喀什湖地区气候环境变化,可为流域水陆生态环境保护提供一定的参考。

关键词: 巴尔喀什湖流域, 降水, 干湿指标, 干湿事件, 空间分布

Abstract:

According to monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 for 24 meteorological stations distributed in Kazakhstan in the Balkhash Lake Basin,average annual precipitation and precipitation using Kriging difference technology and SPI,Z and PDECI （aridity-wetness indexes）were used to study inter annual aridity-wetness change,aridity-wetness event frequency,aridity-wetness duration and aridity-wetness spatial distribution. The results showed that inter annual aridity-wetness events happened across the Basin,and under a time scale of three months as partial drought events usually occurred in February to April and partial moist events occurred from June to August. The duration of the moist event increased gradually after the 1970s; since entering 21st century the frequency of moist events has increased significantly. Currently,statistical results according to the three kinds of aridity-wetness indexes proved that the Basin is in a moist period. In a moist year in 1998,the Basin was “Southeast drought and west moist”; in a normal year in 2000 the Basin was “Northeast drought and southeast moist”;and in a drought year in 1978 the Basin was “South drought and west moist”. These research results reveal distribution changes in climate and environment in the area and provide references for protecting aquatic and land ecological environments of Balkhash Lake.

Key words: Balkhash Lake Basin, precipitation, aridity-wetness indexes, drought and moist event, spatial distribution

张潇, 夏自强, 郭利丹, 鄢波. 1960-2010年巴尔喀什湖流域干湿特征分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(6): 1118-1128.

ZHANG Xiao,XIA Ziqiang,GUO Lidan,YAN Bo. Analysis of aridity-wetness characteristics in the Balkhash Lake Basin from 1960 to 2010[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(6): 1118-1128.

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等级	SPI	Z	PDECI/%	类型
1	≥2.00	≥1.645	≥75	重涝
2	1.50~1.99	1.037~1.645	50~75	中涝
3	1.00~1.49	0.842~1.037	25~50	偏涝
4	-0.99~0.99	-0.842~0.842	-25~25	正常
5	-1.49~-1.00	-1.037~-0.842	-50~-25	偏旱
6	-1.99~-1.50	-1.645~-1.037	-75~-50	中旱
7	<-2.00	<-1.645	<-75	重旱