苏、浙、皖农户秸秆处理行为分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.06.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了系统地研究农户秸秆处理行为的主要影响因素,从而具有针对性地提出秸秆综合利用的合理政策建议,本文以小农经济制度理性假说为理论基础,通过Logit模型的建立,构建了农户秸秆处理行为模型,对苏浙皖三省473个农户样本的秸秆资源处理行为的调研数据进行了分析。研究结果表明,农户秸秆焚烧行为主要受户主年龄、禁烧补助以及农户对秸秆焚烧认知因素的影响;农户秸秆还田行为主要受禁烧政策执行力度、家庭生活能源情况、秸秆还田意愿和还田技术指导等因素的影响;农户秸秆出售行为受农户出售意愿和附近是否有秸秆收购站点等因素的影响;农户秸秆出售行为受农户出售意愿和附近是否有秸秆收购站点等因素的影响。为提高秸秆综合利用效率,首先,要继续实行秸秆禁烧政策,并加强对农户的秸秆综合利用的知识宣传;其次,要加大对秸秆还田等综合利用技术的研发和推广工作,并完善相应的政策扶持制度;最后,要通过政府、企业及第三方组织等共同努力建立健全的秸秆收储运体系。

关键词: 秸秆, 农户理论, 处理行为, Logit模型, 江苏, 浙江, 安徽

Abstract:

In order to study the main influencing factors of farmers' behavior of straw treatment, so as to put forward the reasonable policy suggestions for the comprehensive utilization of straw, we constructed a system of farmer straw processing behavior using 473 surveys across Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces and Logit model, based on the theory of rational hypothesis of small peasant economy system. According to the results, straw burning behavior is mainly affected by the age of farmers, prohibition subsidy and farmer cognition of straw burning. Returning straw to fields is mainly affected by prohibition of policy enforcement, energy situation of family life, willingness and technical guidance of straw returning to fields. Straw selling is mainly affected by farmer willingness to sell and whether straw purchase sites are nearby. In order to improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of straw, we should proceed from the following three points. First, we should continue to implement the prohibition policy of straw burning conducive to curb farmer straw burning behavior, and the government should strengthen communications to farmers about straw comprehensive utilization to help farmers better understand the comprehensive utilization of straw. Second, we should increase the development and promotion of straw comprehensive utilization technology to promote the comprehensive utilization of straw with the help of technical reform, and improve the support of corresponding policy. Finally, we should establish a sound system of straw storage and transport with the help of government, enterprise and three party organization so as to promote the industrialization and market development of comprehensive utilization of straw.

Key words: straw, farmer theory, processing behavior, Logit model, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui

漆军, 朱利群, 陈利根, 李群. 苏、浙、皖农户秸秆处理行为分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(6): 1099-1108.

QI Jun,ZHU Liqun,CHEN Ligen,LI Qun. Research on the farmers' behavior of straw processing in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(6): 1099-1108.

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年份	南京	连云港	扬州	无锡	湖州	嘉兴	蚌埠	滁州
2010	8 449.05	9 004.95	8 212.95	8 843.40	7 908.00	8 420.40	7 499.70	7 232.10
2011	8 449.05	9 052.95	8 832.00	8 967.00	8 002.95	8 452.80	7 518.00	7 341.60
2012	8 689.95	9 118.35	9 237.00	9 035.25	8 062.05	8 487.90	7 302.15	6 739.65
2013	8 710.05	9 118.05	9 210.00	9 078.15	8 056.95	8 571.45	7 110.30	6 641.40
2014	8 680.05	8 943.15	8 688.00	9 097.50	8 259.00	8 588.85	6 786.00	6 792.00
均值	8 595.60	9 047.55	8 836.05	9 004.20	8 057.85	8 504.25	7 243.20	6 949.35

年份	南京	连云港	扬州	无锡	湖州	嘉兴	蚌埠	滁州
2010	4 524.00	5 701.05	5 922.00	5 347.20	4 372.95	3 875.25	5 976.90	5 490.45
2011	4 524.00	5 674.95	6 151.05	5 403.00	4 422.00	4 161.90	5 987.70	5 434.35
2012	4 978.95	5 982.00	5 695.05	5 395.95	4 336.95	4 224.15	5 941.35	5 130.90
2013	5 175.00	5 736.00	5 923.95	5 403.45	4 456.95	4 458.75	6 131.85	5 369.70
2014	5 242.95	5 899.05	6 007.95	5 395.95	4 365.00	4 477.05	6 361.80	5 424.45
均值	4 888.95	5 798.55	5 940.00	5 389.05	4 390.80	4 239.45	6 079.95	5 370.00

	南京	连云港	扬州	无锡	湖州	嘉兴	蚌埠	滁州
水稻	8 595.60	9 047.55	8 836.05	9 004.20	8 057.85	8 504.25	7 243.20	6 949.35
稻秸	11 371.95	11 969.85	11 690.10	11 912.70	10 660.50	11 251.20	9 582.75	9 193.95
小麦	4 888.95	5 798.55	5 940.00	5 389.05	4 390.80	4 239.45	6 079.95	5 370.00
麦秸	8 399.30	9 962.00	10 204.92	9 258.50	7 543.40	7 283.33	10 445.30	9 225.60

处理方式	南京	连云港	扬州	无锡	湖州	嘉兴	蚌埠	滁州
焚烧	1.32	19.05	1.34	1.96	23.08	5.13	3.51	8.15
还田	59.25	57.14	53.64	61.59	53.85	37.95	69.72	71.35
饲喂牲畜	5.26	7.94	6.49	1.96	1.92	11.54	12.28	5.33
做柴火	36.84	19.05	15.58	15.69	38.46	43.59	36.84	28.67
出售	15.79	14.29	11.69	1.96	15.38	12.82	7.02	9.33
丢弃	15.79	7.94	10.39	15.29	5.77	6.41	22.81	33.33
其他	7.89	26.98	22.08	15.88	21.15	15.38	12.28	10.67
总计	142.14	152.39	121.21	114.33	159.61	132.82	164.46	166.83

变量名	定义及说明	均值	标准差
因变量y_i
秸秆焚烧或丢弃	家庭是否有秸秆焚烧或丢弃行为：是=1,否=0	0.712	0.453
秸秆还田	家庭是否有秸秆还田行为：是=1,否=0	0.122	0.328
秸秆出售	家庭是否有秸秆出售行为：是=1,否=0	0.180	0.384
自变量x_i
户主性别	男性=1,女性=0	0.731	0.443
户主年龄	户主年龄/岁	57.432	10.541
户主受教育程度	小学及以下=1,初中=2,高中及以上=3	1.518	0.631
耕地分散程度	家庭块均耕地面积/hm²	0.159	0.182
年轻人参与农事情况	家庭农忙时是否有年轻人帮衬：是=1,否=0	0.391	0.488
农业收入占比	家庭农业收入占总收入比例	0.346	0.358
农业从业人员占比	家庭农业从业人员占家庭总人口比例	0.566	0.262
生活能源情况	家庭是否将秸秆作燃料：是=1,否=0	0.331	0.471
牲畜秸秆使用情况	家庭牲畜是否使用秸秆：是=1,否=0	0.058	0.233
农户秸秆焚烧认知	您认为秸秆是否该焚烧：是=1,否=0	0.530	0.499
政策执行力度	秸秆焚烧是否有行政或金钱处罚：是=1,否=0	0.940	0.237
是否有禁烧补助	是否有禁烧补助：是=1,否=0	0.237	0.425
附近是否有收购点	附近是否有收购点：是=1,否=0	0.204	0.403
秸秆出售意愿	您是否愿意出售家中的秸秆：是=1,否=0	0.535	0.499
秸秆还田意愿	您是否愿意进行秸秆还田：是=1,否=0	0.568	0.495
是否有还田补助	是否有还田补助：是=1,否=0	0.182	0.386
还田技术指导	政府是否有还田技术指导：是=1,否=0	0.552	0.497
是否有还田机械	家庭是否有还田机械：是=1,否=0	0.060	0.237