基于ISM模型的中国大洋性渔业发展影响因素分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.06.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国大洋性渔业发展的影响因素复杂多样。本文在查阅文献和组织专家讨论的基础上,从资源环境、市场、技术、政策和外部保障5个层面,详细识别出影响中国大洋性渔业发展的17个具体因素。在此基础上,建立ISM模型分析影响中国大洋性渔业发展的因素及其层次关系。结果表明：17个影响因素之间相互关联,构成一个4层级的影响因素递阶结构,其中渔获物市场分布及需求、渔获物市场价格和渔获物市场流通体系完善水平是表层直接影响因素;渔船及配套设施技术水平、捕捞人员专业技术能力、渔获物加工及产品开发能力、渔场作业环境、新鱼种开发潜力等构成中层间接影响因素;公海渔业资源量、大洋性渔业资源调查与评估能力、国际公海渔业资源管理制度、国家及地方远洋渔业扶持政策和公海渔业资源管理国家参与水平是深层根源影响因素。

关键词: 大洋性渔业, 影响因素, ISM模型, 中国

Abstract:

The recognition of factors affecting high seas fisheries development in China has very important meaning to the exploration of development pathways. The influences on high seas fisheries development in China are diverse and complex. On the basis of a great deal of relevant materials and expert-level discussion,17 factors affecting the development of Chinese high seas fisheries are detailed here and include aspects of the resource,market,technology,policy and external security. By building interpretative structural modeling （ISM）,the factors above were analyzed and the structure and inherent links among factors were determined using a hierarchical structure diagram. The results showed that these 17 factors were correlative and they established interpretative structural modeling along four layers. In the hierarchical structure,the surface direct influencing factors were the market distribution and the demand of catches,the market prices of catches and the improvement level of fish market circulation system. The middle indirect influencing factors were the technical level of fishing vessels and supporting facilities,the professional technical standard and abilities of fishermen,capability of product processing and development,working environment of fishing grounds,and exploring potential of new fish species. The root and basic influencing factors were high seas fishery resources,capacity of ocean fisheries resources investigation and evaluation,international system of high seas fishery resources management,national and local support policies of pelagic fisheries and the degree and level of high seas fisheries management countries’ participation.

Key words: high seas fisheries, influencing factors, Interpretative Structural Modeling（ISM）, China

陈琦, 韩立民. 基于ISM模型的中国大洋性渔业发展影响因素分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(6): 1088-1098.

CHEN Qi,HAN Limin. Analysis of factors influencing high seas fisheries development in China based on Interpretative Structural Modeling[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(6): 1088-1098.

图/表 7

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

可达集合与先行集合的交集"

要素	$P (S i)$	$Q (S i)$	$P (S i) ? Q (S i)$
S₁	1,2,4~17	1,8,12,13,17	1,8,12,13,17
S₂	2,4,5,7	1,2,8,12,13,17	2
S₃	3,4,5,6,7	3	3
S₄	4,5,7	1~17	4,5,7
S₅	4,5,7	1~17	4,5,7
S₆	4,5,6,7	1,3,6,8~13,17	6
S₇	4,5,7	1~17	4,5,7
S₈	1~17	1,8,12,13,17	1,8,12,13,17
S₉	4~10,11	1,8~13,17	9,10,11
S₁₀	4~10,11	1,8~13,17	9,10,11
S₁₁	4~10,11	1,8~13,17	9,10,11
S₁₂	1,2,4~17	1,8,12,13,17	1,8,12,13,17
S₁₃	1,2,4~17	1,8,12,13,17	1,8,12,13,17
S₁₄	4,5,7,14	1,8,12,13,14,17	14
S₁₅	4,5,7,15	1,8,12,13,15,17	15
S₁₆	4,5,7,16	1,8,12,13,16,17	16
S₁₇	1,2,4~17	1,8,12,13,17	1,8,12,13,17

表5

图1

图2

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分类	详细因素
资源环境因素	公海渔业资源量（S₁）;新鱼种开发潜力（S₂）;渔场的作业环境（S₃）
市场因素	渔获物市场分布及需求（S₄）;渔获物国际市场价格（S₅）;生产成本（S₆）;渔获物市场流通体系完善水平（S₇）
技术因素	大洋性渔业资源的调查与评估能力（S₈）;渔船及配套设施技术水平（S₉）;捕捞人员专业技术能力（S₁₀）;渔获物加工及产品开发能力（S₁₁）
政策因素	国际公海渔业资源管理制度（S₁₂）;国家及地方远洋渔业扶持政策（S₁₃）
保障因素	国内远洋渔港及冷链物流保障能力（S₁₄）;海外远洋渔业基地服务保障能力（S₁₅）;国际渔业市场信息服务保障能力（S₁₆）;公海渔业资源管理国家参与水平（S₁₇）

公海渔业资源种类		资源分布
金枪鱼资源	大眼金枪鱼	太平洋、印度洋和大西洋的热带和温带55°N-45°S海域
	黄鳍金枪鱼	太平洋、印度洋和大西洋低纬度的热带和亚热带海域
	长鳍金枪鱼	太平洋、印度洋和大西洋的热带和温带55°N-45°S海域
	鲣鱼	太平洋、印度洋和大西洋低纬度的热带和亚热带海域
	蓝鳍金枪鱼	20°N-40°N太平洋温带海域、30°N-45°N大西洋海域以及南半球5°S-50°S海域
	剑鱼	亚热带以北的西北太平洋海域、热带和亚热带大西洋海域、45°S-30°N的温带、热带印度洋海域
大洋性头足类资源	柔鱼	世界各大洋的陆坡渔场
	枪乌贼	太平洋、大西洋的热带、温带海区以及印度洋
	乌贼	距离大陆较远的岛屿周围和外海
	蛸	各大洋的沿岸海域
中上层小型鱼类资源	秋刀鱼	大西洋北部、太平洋东部至夏威夷诸岛海域以及印度洋海域
	智利竹筴鱼	30°S-60°S的南太平洋海域以及6°S-30°S的东南太平洋海域（主要包括秘鲁、智利专属经济区及其向西至101°W的海域）
	其它竹筴鱼	广泛分布在太平洋、大西洋和印度洋海域
底层深海鱼类资源	犬牙南极鱼	南大洋海域
	大西洋胸棘鲷鱼	北大西洋海域和南印度洋西南部
	其它深海鱼	广泛分布在太平洋、大西洋和印度洋海域
南极磷虾	-	南大洋海域,最大密度分布在大西洋区

所在海域	区域性渔业组织
太平洋	中西部太平洋渔业委员会（WCPFC）
	东太平洋金枪鱼委员会（IATTC）
	南太平洋渔业管理委员会（SPRFMO）
	北太平洋渔业委员会（NPFC）
大西洋	养护大西洋金枪鱼委员会（ICCAT）
印度洋	印度洋金枪鱼委员会（IOTC）
南大洋	南极海洋生物资源养护委员会（CCAMLR）
太平洋-北冰洋	中白令海峡鳕养护与管理公约（CCBSP）