资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 929-938.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.05.12
收稿日期:
2015-10-10
修回日期:
2016-01-10
出版日期:
2016-05-25
发布日期:
2016-05-23
作者简介:
作者简介:敖长林,男(蒙古族),黑龙江杜蒙县人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为资源环境管理。E-mail:
基金资助:
AO Changlin(), DONG Yuning, JIAO Yang, ZHANG Kun, DONG Lina
Received:
2015-10-10
Revised:
2016-01-10
Online:
2016-05-25
Published:
2016-05-23
摘要:
由二分式条件价值评估法得到的样本数据,通常会包含零观察值,以往研究中的支付意愿函数模型和Tobit模型未能妥善处理零观察值,降低了评估结果的准确性。针对零观察值问题,本文通过构建支付意愿的双栏模型,将零观察值纳入CVM数据分析,提出了双栏模型参数估计方法。以三江平原湿地生态保护价值为例,得到黑龙江省居民的平均支付意愿为127.93元/(人·年),低于支付意愿函数模型的计算结果134.58元/(人・年),高于Tobit模型的计算结果102.52元/(人・年),得到2010年三江平原湿地生态保护价值为49.01亿元/年。研究结果验证双栏模型可以避免因删除零观察值而导致估算结果的高估及将所有零值归为真实零观察值所导致估算结果的低估。通过比较两栏的结果发现,收入、了解程度、游玩次数等影响因素在两方程中的作用不同,表明参与和支付是两种不同的机制,需要区分处理。研究结论为CVM研究中零观察值的处理提供新的途径,为生态环境管理提供决策参考依据。
敖长林, 董育宁, 焦扬, 张昆, 董利娜. 基于双栏模型的三江平原湿地生态保护价值评估[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(5): 929-938.
AO Changlin,DONG Yuning,JIAO Yang,ZHANG Kun,DONG Lina. Ecological value evaluation of the Sanjiang Plain Wetland based on the Double-Hurdle Model[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(5): 929-938.
表2
双边界二分式下投标点的样本分布"
问卷类型 | TL | T | TU | YY/ %(样本数) | YN/ %(样本数) | NY/ %(样本数) | NN/ %(样本数) | 真实零支付/ %(样本数) | 抗议性零支付/ %(样本数) | 样本 总计 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A | - | 1 | 3 | 89(73) | 3(2) | 1(1) | 0(0) | 15(12) | 15(12) | 123 |
B | 3 | 5 | 10 | 86(61) | 5(4) | 4(3) | 2(1) | 16(11) | 28(20) | 141 |
C | 5 | 10 | 20 | 72(58) | 8(6) | 5(4) | 2(2) | 19(15) | 18(15) | 124 |
D | 10 | 20 | 30 | 64(52) | 9(7) | 7(6) | 2(1) | 21(17) | 21(17) | 124 |
E | 30 | 50 | 100 | 55(42) | 11(8) | 11(8) | 8(6) | 26(20) | 21(16) | 132 |
F | 50 | 100 | 200 | 39(29) | 21(15) | 14(10) | 5(4) | 26(19) | 31(23) | 136 |
G | 100 | 200 | 500 | 31(21) | 34(23) | 13(9) | 14(10) | 27(18) | 28(19) | 147 |
样本合计 | 436(47) | 91(10) | 55(6) | 33(4) | 150(16) | 162(17) | 927 |
表3
变量定义及描述统计"
变量 | 选项 | 定义 | 人数 | 比例/% | 均值 | 正支付率/% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
性别SEX | 男 | SEX=1 | 494 | 53 | 0.53 | 62.0 |
女 | SEX=0 | 433 | 47 | 69.8 | ||
年龄AGE/岁 | <20 | AGE=1 | 46 | 5 | 2.98 | 76.7 |
21~30 | AGE=2 | 333 | 36 | 69.1 | ||
31~40 | AGE=3 | 241 | 26 | 63.9 | ||
41~50 | AGE=4 | 234 | 25 | 65.4 | ||
51~60 | AGE=5 | 50 | 5 | 44.9 | ||
>60 | AGE=6 | 23 | 2 | 65.2 | ||
教育EDU | 小学及以下 | EDU=1 | 29 | 3 | 3.60 | 58.3 |
初中 | EDU=2 | 110 | 12 | 49.5 | ||
高中 | EDU=3 | 234 | 25 | 72.1 | ||
大学 | EDU=4 | 380 | 41 | 71.2 | ||
研究生以上 | EDU=5 | 174 | 19 | 56.0 | ||
收入INC/万元 | <0.3 | INC=1 | 278 | 30 | 3.69 | 67.0 |
0.3~0.6 | INC=2 | 114 | 12 | 61.6 | ||
0.6~1.2 | INC=3 | 106 | 11 | 51.9 | ||
1.2~2.4 | INC=4 | 127 | 13 | 64.0 | ||
2.4~3.6 | INC=5 | 91 | 10 | 71.9 | ||
3.6~4.8 | INC=6 | 58 | 6 | 78.2 | ||
4.8~6.0 | INC=7 | 62 | 7 | 72.9 | ||
>6.0 | INC=8 | 91 | 10 | 65.9 | ||
了解程度 | 非常了解 | ACK=5 | 69 | 7 | 2.98 | 70.3 |
比较了解 | ACK=4 | 201 | 22 | 73.0 | ||
一般了解 | ACK=3 | 347 | 37 | 68.4 | ||
不太了解 | ACK=2 | 259 | 28 | 59.1 | ||
完全不了解 | ACK=1 | 51 | 6 | 40.2 | ||
游玩次数 | 没去过 | TIM=0 | 471 | 51 | 0.82 | 56.9 |
1次 | TIM=1 | 236 | 25 | 72.7 | ||
2次 | TIM=2 | 115 | 12 | 79.1 | ||
TIM=3 | 105 | 11 | 75.2 |
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