基于系统动力学的鄱阳湖生态产业集群“产业-经济-资源”系统模拟分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.05.07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

产业集群作为当前区域经济发展的重要推动力,在区域经济增长和区域资源可持续利用中扮演着越来越重要的角色。鄱阳湖生态经济区自2009年纳入国家发展战略规划以来,经历了一个快速发展的过程,但随着区域经济、资源和产业结构的进一步发展,资源高消耗、经济增长降速、区域产业结构不合理等问题逐渐凸显,本文在对鄱阳湖生态经济区100家进驻企业问卷调查的基础上,通过系统动力学的流率基本入树建模法分析产业、经济及资源的内在关系,构建“产业-经济-资源”反馈系统,并结合鄱阳湖生态经济区2012年的基础数据进行模拟仿真,分析区域资源水平、政府投资、科技转化能力、教育水平等因素对区域资源的可持续利用影响作用。结果显示,一方面,区域资源水平直接影响区域产业的集群度,进而影响区域经济的发展。提高区域教育投资占比,并不能直接提高区域经济水平总量,但可以提高区域经济水平的发展速度;另一方面,鄱阳湖生态经济区内原有的高消耗型产业仍占据着区域经济增长的主要部分,但是废品废料、研究与试验发展业、综合技术服务业、水利、环境和公共设施管理业、卫生、社会保障和社会福利业、文化、体育和娱乐业和公共管理和社会组织等行业对区域内的经济增长的影响作用越来越大。基于以上结果,对鄱阳湖生态经济区的产业结构、资金投入、教育投入,资源更新等方面提出了具体的政策建议。

关键词: 鄱阳湖生态经济区, 影响因素, 系统动力学

Abstract:

Industrial clusters are an important driver of current regional economic development and play an increasingly important role in regional economic growth and sustainable utilization of regional resources in China. The Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone is a national strategy and experienced rapid development;however,the whole economic area of high resource consumption,economic growth and regional industrial structure is irrational and issues are emerging. This paper is based on a survey of 100 enterprises in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone and analysis of flow rate using the tree system dynamics modeling method for the internal relations industry,economy and resources. . The essay also states the analysis on impact of regional resource level,government investment,S&T transference ability,education level and other factors on sustainable facilitation of the regional resources by combing the feedback system with the simulation of fundamental data collected in 2012 on Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone. According to simulation results,the regional resources level directly affects regional industrial clustering and then affects the development of the regional economy. Increasing the proportion of investment in regional education does not directly improve the regional economic level,but can improve the development of regional economic levels. The Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone has historically had high consumption of industry and this remains a major component of regional economic growth. Relative industrial structure has a greater influence on economic growth of the region. The industrial structure of Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone,aspects of financial security,eco-industrial clusters surrounding economic regional interactions and personnel security mechanisms are discussed as specific policy recommendations.

Key words: Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, influencing factors, system dynamics

徐升华, 吴丹. 基于系统动力学的鄱阳湖生态产业集群“产业-经济-资源”系统模拟分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(5): 871-887.

XU Shenghua,WU Dan. Analysis on the “industry-economy-resources”simulated system of Poyang Lake Eco-industrial Clusters based on systematic dynamics[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(5): 871-887.

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系统	产业	经济	资源
指标	企业数	GDP	资源消耗量
		投资率
		人均消费水平
		教育财政支出

年-月	GDP /亿元	投资率 /%	教育财政支出/亿元	人均消费水平/元	企业数 /个	资源消耗量 /亿元
2004-12	1 997	49.60	25.080 7	5 264	2 107	0.971 6
2005-12	2 193	48.80	30.216 5	5 427	2 199	1.327 2
2006-12	2 586	50.40	38.917 5	5 604	2 612	2.108 3
2007-12	3 113	50.30	64.818 4	7 692	2 886	3.302 2
2008-12	4 277	50.60	72.195 1	8 853	2 971	5.606 7
2009-12	4 486	54.40	88.782 2	9 704	3 526	6.965 7
2010-12	5 307	51.40	103.199 4	10 556	3 962	8.112 0
2011-12	6 459	51.20	163.345 6	12 401	3 063	11.569 2

控制变量			GDP	企业数
投资率	GDP	相关性系数	1.000	-0.008
		检验概率		0.006
		自由度	0	5
	企业数	相关性系数	-0.008	1.000
		检验概率	0.016
		自由度	5	0

控制变量			GDP	企业数
人均消费水平	GDP	相关性系数	1.000	0.006
		检验概率		0.000
		自由度	0	5
	资源消耗量	相关性系数	0.007	1.000
		检验概率	0.000
		自由度	5	0

控制变量			GDP	企业数
人均消费水平	GDP	相关性系数	1.000	-0.005
		检验概率		0.004
		自由度	0	5
	投资率	相关性系数	-0.005	1.000
		检验概率	0.004
		自由度	5	0