资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 858-870.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.05.06

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基于实物期权法的海域使用权定价研究

闻德美1,2(), 姜旭朝3, 孟科学1   

  1. 1. 山东科技大学经济管理学院,青岛 266590
    2. 山东大学经济学院,济南 250100
    3. 中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛 266100
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-12 修回日期:2016-03-29 出版日期:2016-05-25 发布日期:2016-05-23
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:闻德美,女,山东费县人,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,主要从事海洋经济、涉海金融研究。E-mail:wendemei@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(15YJC790115);青岛市社会科学规划项目(QDSKL150454);山东科技大学人才引进科研启动基金项目(2015RCJJ041)

Valuation of the right to use sea areas based on the real options approach

WEN Demei1,2(), JIANG Xuzhao3, MENG Kexue1   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China
    2. School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China
    3. School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China
  • Received:2015-11-12 Revised:2016-03-29 Online:2016-05-25 Published:2016-05-23

摘要:

海域使用投资往往具有较强的不确定性、不可逆性和可延迟性特点,使得海域使用权具有期权时间价值;但中国当前基于贴现现金流的海域使用权定价方法,没有考虑这些特点及其产生的期权时间价值,导致使用权定价偏低。为此,文章将实物期权法应用于海域使用权定价,以期确定更加合理的海域使用权价格,实现海洋经济可持续发展。以2013年青岛市黄岛区琅琊镇围堰养殖海参项目海域使用权价格为例,实物期权法的定价为95.89万元/hm2,相同条件下,贴现现金流法的定价为87.94万元/hm2,贴现现金流法的定价低7.95万元/hm2。而且,由于没有达到实物期权法确定的投资临界值,2013年并不适合投资;此时若投资,海域使用权价格将比达到投资临界值时低99.60万元/hm2,会极大降低海域资源利用效率。此外,参数敏感性分析表明,实物期权法下,海域使用权价格对市场环境变化很敏感,而贴现现金流法不能体现市场环境变化的影响。研究成果可为制定我国海域使用权定价政策提供参考和借鉴。

关键词: 海域使用权, 定价, 实物期权法, 期权时间价值

Abstract:

Investments in the use of sea areas are usually uncertain,irreversible and can be delayed to a large extent,thus giving an options time value to the right to use sea areas. However,the present valuation methods based on discounted cash flow often undervalue the right to use sea areas because they do not consider the above situation and options time value. To value the right to use sea areas more reasonably and maintain sustainable development of the marine economy,a real options approach was applied to the valuation of the right to use sea areas. We used sea cucumber acauculture in Langya,Qingdao City as a focal example and found that the price of the right to use sea areas is 958.9 thousand CNY per hectare according to the real options approach in 2013. Other things being equal,discount cash flow method undervalues the right by 79.5 thousand CNY per hectare than the real options approach. Investment was not optimal in 2013 because the project value was lower than the critical value and results in a price of 996 thousand CNY per hectare lower than that of the critical value,thus reducing the utilization efficiency of maritime space resources. Parameter sensitivity analysis indicates the price of the right to use sea areas is very sensitive to changes in market conditions;nevertheless,the discount cash flow method cannot reflect the influence of those changes. These results provide a reference for policy-making around the valuation of the right to use sea areas in China.

Key words: right to use sea areas, valuation, real options approach, time value of options