资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 665-675.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.04.09

• 气候资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

粮食安全:气候变化与粮食生产率增长——基于HP滤波和序列DEA方法的实证分析

尹朝静1,2(), 李谷成1,2(), 葛静芳1,2   

  1. 1. 华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉 430070
    2. 湖北农村发展研究中心,武汉 430070
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-03 修回日期:2016-01-26 出版日期:2016-04-25 发布日期:2016-04-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:尹朝静,男,四川内江人,博士生,研究方向为农业技术经济。E-mail:yinchaojing@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目(71461010701);国家自然科学基金项目(71273103);国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才支助项目

Food security,climate change and grain productivity growth based on HP filter and sequential DEA methods

YIN Chaojing1,2(), LI Gucheng1,2(), GE Jingfang1,2   

  1. 1. College of Economics & Management,HuaZhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China
    2. Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan 430070,China
  • Received:2015-07-03 Revised:2016-01-26 Online:2016-04-25 Published:2016-04-25

摘要:

在全球气候变暖背景下,提高粮食生产率对于保障中国粮食安全具有十分重要的现实意义。本文采用1978-2012年中国省域面板数据,在借助HP滤波法分离粮食生产气候产量的基础上,引入“技术不会遗忘”假定,运用序列DEA方法测度了中国粮食生产是否考虑气候因素两种情形下的技术效率、技术进步及曼奎斯特生产率指数指数。研究结果揭示:①气候产量围绕“0”值水平线,呈倒“U”型波动特征,气候条件对粮食生产具有正反两方面影响;序列DEA分析表明是否考虑气候因素对于测算结果具有较大影响,考虑气候因素的粮食全要素生产率更低,气候因素加重了技术效率恶化程度,但却推动了技术进步;②中国粮食全要素生产率增长地区差异明显,与中西部地区相比,东部地区明显更优,基本主导了粮食经济全要素生产率的增长,同时引领了粮食生产技术的创新。

关键词: 粮食生产率, 技术效率, 技术进步, HP滤波, 序列DEA, 气候产量, 中国

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming,increasing food productivity to ensure food security in China has very important practical significance. Chinese provincial panel data from 1978 to 2012 was used in this study and the climatic yield of grain production was separated using the HP filter method. Then with the assumption of ‘technology will not be forgotten',sequential DEA was employed to measure technical efficiency,technical progress and the Malmquist productivity index of China's grain production in two cases,considering climate factors or not. We found that climatic yield behaves as an inverted ‘U' type fluctuating around the 0 level,and climate conditions have both positive and negative impacts on grain production. Sequential DEA analysis shows that decision to consider climate factors has a significant impact on measurement results. When climate factors are considered,grain total factor productivity becomes lower,with worse technical efficiency but promoted technological progress. Last but not the least,regional difference in China's grain total factor productivity growth are apparent. Compared with central and western regions,eastern China is better. Therefore,we have every reason to believe that the eastern region basically dominates growth of the grain economy total factor productivity. At the same time,eastern China leads technical innovation in grain production.

Key words: grain, technical efficiency, technical progress, HP filter, sequential DEA, climatic yield, China