资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 658-664.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.04.08

• 能源与碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

2020年中国能源消费总量预测——基于定基能源消费弹性系数法

刘卫东1(), 仲伟周1, 石清2()   

  1. 1. 西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安 710001
    2. 上海理工大学管理学院,上海 200090
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-04 修回日期:2016-03-03 出版日期:2016-04-25 发布日期:2016-04-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘卫东,男,浙江兰溪人,博士生,主要研究方向为能源经济与电力系统技术经济。E-mail:boylwd@sina.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71172184);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2014KRM15)

Forecast of China's total energy consumption in 2020 based on method of fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient

LIU Weidong1(), ZHONG Weizhou1, SHI Qing2()   

  1. 1. School of Finance and Economics of Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710001,China
    2. School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200090,China
  • Received:2015-11-04 Revised:2016-03-03 Online:2016-04-25 Published:2016-04-25

摘要:

中国对2020年能源消费规划为48亿t标准煤左右,此规划目标能否实现?为此,本文对2020年中国能源消费总量进行预测。2011年以来,中国经济逐渐步入增速放缓、发展方式转变和产业结构调整的新常态,能源消费增速也随之放缓,煤炭消费占比逐年下降。在此背景下,本文首次使用定基能源消费弹性系数,解决了能源弹性系数数据不平稳且无规律而不利于定量分析的问题,采用统计部门修正过的经济能源数据对其影响因素进行协整分析。研究结果显示,定基能源消费弹性系数与产业结构、技术进步之间存在长期均衡关系,两者对弹性系数有负向影响,产业结构的影响更大;2020年能源消费总量预测低、中、高方案为47.1亿t、48.2亿t、49.2亿t标准煤,年均增速为1.7%~2.4%,说明基本能实现能源规划目标。

关键词: 能源消费, 弹性系数, 产业结构, 技术进步, 协整分析, 定基能源消费弹性系数法, 中国

Abstract:

In 2014,China's state council issued that China's total energy consumption control objectives in 2020 would be about 4.8 billion tons of standard coal. The target whether can be realized or not is the focus of this paper. From 2011,China's economy has entered the new normal status:its growth rate has slowed to less than 10% with economic structural adjustment and growth pattern transformation. At the same time,China's energy consumption also has been changing:its growth rate has fallen to 2.2%,and coal consumption proportion dropped year by year. Under the decreasing of both economy growth and energy consumption,this paper recalculates energy elasticity coefficient and renames it the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient,which solves the problem of energy elasticity coefficient data is volatile,irregular and not for quantitative analysis. Then,with using the latest economy and energy data revised by national statistical department,the paper studies its main factors by the methods of co-integration analysis and predicts China's future energy demand. Results show that three variables,which are the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient,industrial structure and technical progress,have long-term equilibrium relationship. What's more,industrial structure has a more negative effect than technical progress on elastic coefficient. Based on all above research ,we get the following conclusions that under low,medium and high scenarios,China's total primary energy consumption will separately reach 4.71,4.82 or 4.92 billion tons of standard coal in 2020,average annual growth rate of 1.7%~2.4%;That is,China's total energy control objectives can be basically fulfilled.

Key words: energy consumption, elasticity coefficient, industrial structure, technical progress, co-integration analysis, fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient, China