2020年中国能源消费总量预测——基于定基能源消费弹性系数法

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.04.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国对2020年能源消费规划为48亿t标准煤左右,此规划目标能否实现?为此,本文对2020年中国能源消费总量进行预测。2011年以来,中国经济逐渐步入增速放缓、发展方式转变和产业结构调整的新常态,能源消费增速也随之放缓,煤炭消费占比逐年下降。在此背景下,本文首次使用定基能源消费弹性系数,解决了能源弹性系数数据不平稳且无规律而不利于定量分析的问题,采用统计部门修正过的经济能源数据对其影响因素进行协整分析。研究结果显示,定基能源消费弹性系数与产业结构、技术进步之间存在长期均衡关系,两者对弹性系数有负向影响,产业结构的影响更大;2020年能源消费总量预测低、中、高方案为47.1亿t、48.2亿t、49.2亿t标准煤,年均增速为1.7%~2.4%,说明基本能实现能源规划目标。

关键词: 能源消费, 弹性系数, 产业结构, 技术进步, 协整分析, 定基能源消费弹性系数法, 中国

Abstract:

In 2014,China's state council issued that China's total energy consumption control objectives in 2020 would be about 4.8 billion tons of standard coal. The target whether can be realized or not is the focus of this paper. From 2011,China's economy has entered the new normal status：its growth rate has slowed to less than 10% with economic structural adjustment and growth pattern transformation. At the same time,China's energy consumption also has been changing：its growth rate has fallen to 2.2%,and coal consumption proportion dropped year by year. Under the decreasing of both economy growth and energy consumption,this paper recalculates energy elasticity coefficient and renames it the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient,which solves the problem of energy elasticity coefficient data is volatile,irregular and not for quantitative analysis. Then,with using the latest economy and energy data revised by national statistical department,the paper studies its main factors by the methods of co-integration analysis and predicts China's future energy demand. Results show that three variables,which are the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient,industrial structure and technical progress,have long-term equilibrium relationship. What's more,industrial structure has a more negative effect than technical progress on elastic coefficient. Based on all above research ,we get the following conclusions that under low,medium and high scenarios,China's total primary energy consumption will separately reach 4.71,4.82 or 4.92 billion tons of standard coal in 2020,average annual growth rate of 1.7%~2.4%;That is,China's total energy control objectives can be basically fulfilled.

Key words: energy consumption, elasticity coefficient, industrial structure, technical progress, co-integration analysis, fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient, China

刘卫东, 仲伟周, 石清. 2020年中国能源消费总量预测——基于定基能源消费弹性系数法[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(4): 658-664.

LIU Weidong,ZHONG Weizhou,SHI Qing. Forecast of China's total energy consumption in 2020 based on method of fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(4): 658-664.

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变量	临界值（5%）	ADF 值	p值	平稳性
E	-2.951	-1.139	0.689	非平稳
ES	-3.563	-3.717	0.036	平稳
SI	-3.548	-3.212	0.099	非平稳
TI	-3.548	-2.837	0.195	非平稳
LLP	-1.951	-0.460	0.508	非平稳
URBAN	-3.548	-1.157	0.903	非平稳
△E	-1.951	-3.867	0.000	平稳
△SI	-1.951	-4.205	0.000	平稳
△TI	-2.951	-4.305	0.002	平稳
△LLP	-2.951	-4.294	0.002	平稳
△URBAN	-2.951	-2.529	0.118	非平稳
△²URBAN	-2.954	-8.781	0.000	平稳

原假设	样本个数	F统计量	p值
LLP不是E的格兰杰原因	33	4.847	0.008
TI不是E的格兰杰原因	33	5.708	0.004
SI不是E的格兰杰原因	33	0.751	0.532

Lag	LogL	LR	FPE	AIC	SC	HQ
0	112.427	NA	21.500e-08	-6.839	-6.703	-6.793
1	251.919	244.111	62.000e-12	-14.995	-14.445	-14.813
2	279.509	43.110*	19.700e-12	-16.157	-15.195*	-15.838
3	291.640	16.679	16.900e-12*	-16.353	-14.978	-15.897*
4	300.676	10.730	18.400e-12	-16.355*	-14.568	-15.763

原假设	特征根迹检验		最大特征值检验
原假设	特征根迹统计量	p值	最大特征根统计量	p值
无协整向量*	61.064	0.000	39.086	0.001
至多一个协整向量	21.978	0.142	12.110	0.405
至多两个协整向量	9.868	0.133	9.868	0.133

变量	说明	低方案	中方案	高方案
GDP实际年均增长率/%	情景设定值	6.0	6.5	7.0
二产增加值实际年均增长率/%	情景设定值	6.0	6.0	6.0
二产就业人口年均增长率/%	情景设定值	-0.31	-0.31	-0.31
三产增加值占比/%	情景设定值	56.1	56.1	56.1
定基能源消费弹性系数	模型预测值	0.199 4	0.199 4	0.199 4
能源消费总量/亿t标准煤	模型预测值	47.1	48.2	49.2
能源消费年均增长率（2014-2020年）/%	模型预测值	1.7	2.1	2.4