中国港口煤炭进出口格局演变及动力机制

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.04.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国作为煤炭生产和消费的大国,保障煤炭供应是国民经济建设的战略性任务,并影响着国家运输网络构建与进出口贸易。本文在回顾20世纪70年代末期以来中国煤炭进出口发展过程的基础上,刻画了中国从煤炭净出口国向净进口国转变及进出口关系的演变过程;详细分析了中国港口的煤炭进口和出口吞吐量格局的演变过程、基本特征及区域集聚性,认为近年来中国煤炭进出口“南进北出”格局向“南进北出又北进”格局迅速转变;进而绘制了中国煤炭进口的国别网络和中转配送网络,指出部分沿海港口成为煤炭一程接卸和二程配送的枢纽。然后,从煤炭供需关系与耗能产业扩张、煤炭产业政策、市场价格机制、运输瓶颈与生态文明建设等因素,深入分析了中国煤炭进出口格局快速演变的动力机制,并指出中国煤炭进口量的近期爆发性增长是一种短期市场行为,未来仍将保持在高位,但增长速度将下滑。

关键词: 中国, 煤炭进出口, 配送网络, 格局演变, 动力机制

Abstract:

China is a big country in coal production and consumption. How to support coal supply is a strategic task for China and this influences transport networks and the import-export trade in coal. Ports ares the most important transit nodes in the transportation of coal and here we studied the development of coal trade by port. We first review the process of coal import and export since the end of the 1970s in China and describe China's transformation from a net exporter of coal to a net importer. The spatial patterns of coal import traffic and export traffic for China`s ports are analyzed,especially spatial features and centralized regions. The results showed that in recent years the spatial pattern of ‘South import and North export' of Chinese port's coal imports and exports transformed rapidly into that of ‘South import,North import and export'. We depict the national network of China`s coal trade and one-way unloading and two-way distribution network. The results indicate that several seaports have become a hub between one-way unloading and two-way distribution. We dicuss the dynamics of rapid evolution of China's coal trade pattern,from several aspects of supply-demand relationship,heavy industries of coastal region,policies related to coal trade and market price,and transport bottlenecks. However,the current explosive growth of imported coal in China is temporal market behavior,the volume of coal will maintain a high-order position but its growth rate will decline in the future. This paper can help readers understand the current characteristics of China's coal imports and exports,and guide the construction of ports and coal transportation planning.

Key words: China, import and export coal, spatial pattern, distribution network, dynamics

王成金, 王伟. 中国港口煤炭进出口格局演变及动力机制[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(4): 631-644.

WANG Chengjin,WANG Wei. Development of import-export coal trade by port on minaland China：spatial pattern,evolution and dynamics[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(4): 631-644.

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港口	1986年	1995年	2005年	2012年	港口	1986年	1995年	2005年	2012年
丹东	0	0	3.8	24.9	宁波	0	0.1	2.0	0
大连	15.5	4.6	3.7	3.8	太仓	0	0	2.4	1.0
营口	0	4.6	29.5	0	镇江	0	10.3	34.2	43.5
锦州	0	2.6	38.1	1.0	福州	2.3	0	0	0
秦皇岛	661.8	1 649.3	3 461.1	38.8	厦门	0	0	2.1	0
京唐	0	5.5	231.0	166.5	广州	10.0	0	5.4	0.1
天津	0.8	1 057.9	1 976.2	409.3	防城港	1.0	0	45.2	0.2
龙口	0	0	0	3.3	湛江	22.9	0	0	0
烟台	0	0	0	28.6	沙田	0	0	0.8	0
威海	0	0	0.2	0	洋浦	0	0	0.3	0
青岛	0	42.7	338.0	155.8	张家港	7.1	0.1	0	0.1
日照	22.6	460.4	713.2	46.4	黄骅	0	0	1 079.7	182.7
连云港	135.2	365.8	387.0	19.1	岚山	0	1.9	40.9	0
上海	0.3	15.2	27.4	42.8	总计	879.5	3 621.0	8 422.2	1 167.9

港口	1995年	2002年	2004年	2012年	港口	1995年	2002年	2004年	2012年
丹东	0	0.3	12.9	176.9	厦门	0	0.2	15.9	939.7
大连	0.4	0	0.4	51.7	汕头	0	3.3	0	805.3
营口	0	0	14.2	561.4	惠州	0	0	0.9	70.9
锦州	0	0	0.4	25.3	深圳	4.9	0	0	109.1
秦皇岛	0	0	86.6	79.1	广州	73.5	259.6	330.6	1 888.0
京唐	0	0	6.3	1 619.0	珠海	0	5.5	72.4	399.1
天津	0.1	0.8	56.3	194.8	海口	1.9	0	0	134.2
龙口	0.3	0	1.8	537.9	防城	0	0	42.6	2 758.0
烟台	0	7.2	28.4	270.4	钦州	0	0.3	0	747.6
威海	0	0.9	0.2	73.0	北海	0	0	0	107.3
青岛	0	0	0.3	484.4	湛江	0	114.3	208.0	642.0
日照	0	43.8	53.0	1 284.0	茂名	0	0	0	21.4
连云港	1.9	0	4.2	773.5	肇庆	0	0	0	0.2
上海	32.7	71.8	115.4	1 220.0	沙田	0	1.6	3.3	171.3
宁波	40.8	113.2	155.8	676.5	麻涌	0	0	0	748.1
舟山	0	0	0	992.3	阳江	0.6	0	8.3	67.2
台州	0	0	2.1	703.4	容奇	0	0	0	0.4
温州	0	2.7	1.3	268.4	太平	0	170.5	0	301.3
南京	0	0	0.3	48.8	洋浦	0.7	15.0	5.9	131.2
江阴	0	3.7	0	124.1	常熟	0	0	0	48.8
常州	0	0	4.4	48.1	张家港	0	4.1	0	66.3
太仓	0	0	63.1	102.3	曹妃甸	0	0	0	427.2
南通	0	14.9	0.5	441.7	黄骅	0	0	0	50.1
扬州	0	0	1.4	58.4	岚山	0	0	0	395.2
镇江	0	8.5	17.3	391.8	赛岐	0	0	0	477.6
泰州	0	0.5	14.2	63.4	八所	2.1	0	13.4	243.2
铜陵	0	0	0	0.4	嘉兴	0	0	0	17.2
福州	0	11.8	0	1 219.0	江门	0	0	1.2	21.1
莆田	0	149.2	2.2	361.3	总计	159.9	1 003.7	1 349.8	25 154.9
泉州	0	0	4.3	514.6

	2005年		2008年		2011年		2012年
国家	规模	比重	规模	比重	规模	比重	规模	比重
印尼	244	9.3	1 912	22.5	7 977	43.2	11 800	41.0
越南	1 020	38.9	717	8.4	1 201	6.5	1 700	5.9
澳大利亚	589	22.5	4 183	49.2	2 998	16.2	5 946	20.7
俄罗斯	94	3.6	1 102	13.0	1 139	6.2	2 000	6.9
蒙古	254	9.7	196	2.3	2 719	14.7	2 200	7.6
南非	0	0	0	0	1 328	7.2	1 400	4.9
朝鲜	280	10.7	106	1.2	1 105	6.0	1 200	4.2
其他	140	5.3	289	3.4	0	0	2 533	8.8
合计	2 621	100	8 505	100	18 467	100	28 779	100

类别	2008年	2009年	2010年1-11月
总量	4 078	12 583	14 778
冶金煤	686	3 442	4 182
动力煤	982	3 803	5 498
无烟煤	1 939	3 433	2 344
其他	471	1 905	2 754

		全国	沿海地区	延伸区域（赣皖鄂湘）
火电装机容量	规模/万kW	45 416	37 392	8 024
火电装机容量	比重/%	100.0	48.7	10.4
火电企业数量	规模/家	760	661	99
火电企业数量	比重/%	100.0	55.5	8.3
火电发电量	规模/亿kWh	23 856	19 675	4 181
火电发电量	比重/%	100.0	50.4	10.7