资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 588-598.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.04.02

• 旅游资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国潜在海洋旅游者决策行为与预期偏好

张佑印1,2()   

  1. 1.中国旅游研究院,北京 100005
    2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-11 修回日期:2015-12-29 出版日期:2016-04-25 发布日期:2016-04-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张佑印,男,陕西周至人,博士,副研究员,主要研究方向为旅游市场开发与规划。E-mail:yyzhang@cnta.gov.cn

  • 基金资助:
    北京市社会科学基金项目(15JGC191);中国博士后科学基金项目(2013M530713)

Decision making and expected preference of Chinese domestic potential marine tourism market

ZHANG Youyin1,2()   

  1. 1. China Tourism Academy,Beijing 100005,China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
  • Received:2015-08-11 Revised:2015-12-29 Online:2016-04-25 Published:2016-04-25

摘要:

海洋旅游作为中国最具发展潜力的旅游产业,对其潜在旅游者行为特征分析,有助于更好地把握市场动向,为科学发展海洋旅游提供支撑。通过构建潜在市场规模测算模型,对中国潜在的海洋旅游市场规模及其空间格局进行了分析。借助网络调研平台,对潜在旅游者的消费行为特征进行了研究。依托发生学理论,对制约游客海洋旅游市场出行的内在因素进行分析;通过对比国际海洋旅游目的地,对造成高端海洋旅游市场流失的外部因素进行分析。研究结果显示:①中国潜在海洋旅游市场规模约占国内市场20%左右,空间分布受经济与距离双重影响呈现出东-西梯度递减的格局;②中国潜在海洋旅游市场的期望偏好特征总体优于国内其他旅游市场,然而依然以初级的观光休闲型消费为主;③潜在市场转化为现实市场的内在制约因素主要是旅游消费和闲暇时间,而造成高端市场流失的外在制约因素主要是景区秩序和服务水平。

关键词: 海洋旅游, 潜在市场, 旅游者, 行为决策, 预期偏好, 内部因素, 外部因素, 中国

Abstract:

By building a model that can estimate the potential market of Chinese marine tourism,its market size and spatial distribution can be studied. With the help of online research platforms and Likert comprehensive factor modeling,this study analyzed preference features of five factors:the desire to travel,travel time,residence time,types of the destinations and preferences to tourism projects for potential marine tourism market. The impact of five internal restrictive factors (tourism consumption,leisure time,traffic,spatial distance and relevant groups,on travel capability of marine tourism in genesis perspectives)and seven external restrictive factors (scenic scenery,facilities,culture,prices,service level,the ecological environment and scenic order through comparison of marine tourism destination and international tourism destination)were investigated. The results indicate that the total size of the Chinese potential marine tourist market in 2013 is approximately 663,119,600 people,accounting for 1/5 of the total domestic tourism market. As for the spatial scale,it shows significant double-orientation in economy and distance,which expresses a declining trend from east to west. Our desire for marine tourism is strong,expected travel time concentrates on spring and winter,the length of residence time ranges from four to seven days,the expected type of destinations is sun,sand,sea and landscape predominantly,and the preferred tourist program remains recreation and sightseeing. These findings tell us that our expectation of marine tourism is still at a primary level. The main restrictive factors of marine tourism markets are economy and leisure time,and the restrictive factors of destination are the disorder of scenic spots and insufficiency of service level. In the future,there should be some improvements in promotions and vacation schedule so that more low-income residents and working-class people can experience the charm of marine tourism. Promotion in market regulation,standardization and public services is also necessary. We can strengthen the competitiveness of Chinese marine tourism destinations and reduce the loss of the high-end marine tourist market.

Key words: marine tourism, potential market, tourist, behavior decision, expected preference, internal factors, external factors, China