南方集体林区林农风险偏好对于碳汇供给意愿的影响分析----浙江省风险偏好实验案例

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.03.19

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

森林碳汇已成为缓解气候变化,减少碳排放的创新途径.南方集体林区林改后小规模农户将成为森林碳汇的主要供给主体.由于森林碳汇是生态补偿市场化的新形式,农户的社会风险偏好态度将影响其碳汇供给的意愿和决策.因此分析南方集体林区不同风险类型农户的碳汇供给意愿,对于今后在南方集体林区产权主体分散的情况下明确碳汇供给主体,提高激励碳汇经营主要供给群体政策的瞄准度具有重要现实意义.论文通过浙江省5个案例县(市)183户林农的调查和风险偏好实验,测度了农户风险偏好,共获得风险偏好,风险中性和风险厌恶的农户样本分别为72,33,78个,在对农户的碳汇供给意愿进行描述性统计基础上,运用二元Logit模型分析了影响农户碳汇供给意愿的影响因素,包括风险偏好,个体异质性,社会资本和组织制度.结果显示:风险厌恶型农户的碳汇供给意愿显著高于风险偏好类农户;林地资源规模对于碳汇供给意愿有积极作用;政府造林营林的补贴等外部政策制度变量也会显著激励家庭的碳汇供给意愿.为此国家需要努力引导成立碳汇交易中介,减少风险厌恶型农户进入碳汇市场的交易成本;鼓励通过林地流转等行为促使林地规模经营,引导具有一定经济实力的规模大户和社会资本率先开发碳汇交易项目 ;在南方集体林区重点加大对小规模林农的营造林补贴,提高林农碳汇经营的积极性.

关键词: 森林碳汇, 风险偏好, 供给意愿, 实验经济学, 浙江省

Abstract:

Forest carbon sequestration (FCS)has became a new approach for reducing climate change and carbon emissions. After southern collective forest tenure reform,small-scale rural households became the main subject for FCS supply. The risk attitude of rural households can influence their willingness and decision-making about FCS supply due to new ecological compensation style and it is necessary and meaningful to analyze rural households' willingness for FCS supply in order to identify the main FCS supply subject with decentralization forestland and improving policy aiming for carbon forest management. Through rural households survey and risk preference experiments in five case counties in Zhejiang,China. Here,we measured the risk attitude of rural households and found 72,33 and 78 rural households could be divided into risk-preference,risk-neutral and risk-averse groups,respectively. With descriptive statistics of rural households' willingness for FCS supply and binary Logit modeling we determined how risk attitudes and other factors (e.g. individual heterogeneity,social capital and organization system)influence willingness for FCS supply. We found that FCS supply willingness of rural households with risk-averse attitudes have significantly higher willingness than the risk-preference group;larger forest land area and forest management subsidy have positive impacts on FCS supply willingness. According this,governments should pay more attention to building a carbon agency for reducing transaction costs of small-scale rural households who have risk-averse attitudes and it should encourage forestland transfer contracts and drive social capital and large-scale rural households with strong economic strength to engage in carbon forest management initiatives. Last,it is important to design carbon forest management subsidies for small-scale rural households to improve their carbon forest management activities.

Key words: forest carbon sequestration, risk preference attitude, supply willingness, experiment economics, Zhejiang Province

朱臻, 黄晨鸣, 徐志刚, 沈月琴, 白江迪. 南方集体林区林农风险偏好对于碳汇供给意愿的影响分析----浙江省风险偏好实验案例[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(3): 565-.

ZHU Zhen,HUANG Chenmin,XU Zhigang,SHEN Yueqin,BAI Jiangdi. How risk attitude of farmers influences the supply willingness of forest carbon sequestration in Zhejiang Province[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(3): 565-.

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县(市) 乡镇	建德				开化				龙泉				临安				苍南
县(市) 乡镇	乾潭		李家		华埠		池淮		查田		小梅		太湖源		板桥		桥墩		矾山
村	骑龙	幸福	石鼓	沙墩头	联丰	许家源	玉坑	芹源	泉坑	下圩	半边月	黄南	青云	横徐	灵溪	罗塘	岩联	柳垟	南宋	埔坪
农户	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

方案	选项 1					选项 2				奖金期望收益差/元
方案	概率	奖金/元	概率		奖金/元		概率	奖金/元	概率	奖金/元
1	1/10	20	9/10	16		1/10	38.5	9/10	1	1.17
2	2/10	20	8/10	16		2/10	38.5	8/10	1	0.83
3	3/10	20	7/10	16		3/10	38.5	7/10	1	0.50
4	4/10	20	6/10	16		4/10	38.5	6/10	1	0.16
5	5/10	20	5/10	16		5/10	38.5	5/10	1	-0.18
6	6/10	20	4/10	16		6/10	38.5	4/10	1	-0.51
7	7/10	20	3/10	16		7/10	38.5	3/10	1	-0.85
8	8/10	20	2/10	16		8/10	38.5	2/10	1	-1.18
9	9/10	20	1/10	16		9/10	38.5	1/10	1	-1.52
10	10/10	20	0/10	16		10/10	38.5	0/10	1	-1.85

	安全选项个数	人数/人	比例/%	累计比例/%	最后奖金/元
风险偏好者	0	16	8.74	8.74	34.09
	1	9	4.92	13.66	19.75
	2	17	9.29	22.95	23.89
	3	30	16.39	39.34	23.97
风险中性者	4	33	18.03	57.38	28.71
风险厌恶者	5	27	14.75	72.13	28.71
	6	16	8.74	80.87	24.11
	7	9	4.92	85.79	17.64
	8	4	2.19	87.98	20.00
	9	22	12.02	100.00	19.68
合计	-	183	100.00		-
总体平均值	4.31	-	-	-	24.05

	风险偏好型	风险中性型	风险厌恶型
开展碳汇经营意愿
1=愿意人数/(户/%)	54/75.00	26/78.79	63/80.77
0=不愿意人数/(户/%)	18/25	7/21.21	15/19.23
个体异质
家庭平均劳动力人数/人	4.04	4.06	3.91
家庭人均收入/元	22 108.70	23 344.61	22 619.97
家庭平均山林面积/hm²	3.42	1.80	2.88
社会资本
户主平均年龄/年	54.54	55.58	57.56
户主受教育程度/年	6.22	6.61	5.87
家庭拥有村干部比例/%	6.76	3.03	7.69
组织制度
参加林业技术培训比例/(户/%)	16/22.97	7/20.59	14/17.95
享有林业补贴政策比例/(户/%)	24/33.78	15/44.11	18/23.08

解释变量	被解释变量:农户碳汇供给意愿
解释变量	系数	标准误差	Wald值	显著性水平	Exp(B)
偏好态度(参照组:风险厌恶型)
风险偏好	-0.294	0.413	3.509	0.042**	0.745
风险中性	-0.082	0.535	1.024	0.087*	0.921
个体异质
家庭山林面积	0.272	0.132	4.267	0.039**	1.313
家庭人均收入	0.025	0.224	0.012	0.911	1.025
家庭劳动力数量	0.094	0.156	0.361	0.548	1.099
社会资本
户主年龄	-0.029	0.022	1.845	0.104*	0.971
户主受教育年限	-0.052	0.067	0.620	0.431	0.949
户主是否村干部(1=是,0=否)	0.481	0.870	0.305	0.581	1.617
组织制度
是否参加过培训(1=是,0=否)	0.470	0.575	0.668	0.414	1.601
是否享受林业补贴(1=是,0=否)	0.212	0.491	4.188	0.026**	1.237
常量	2.196	1.594	1.898	0.168	8.985
-2 log likelihood	181.680
Nagelkerke R Sequare	0.089