农户行为对森林资源消长变化的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.03.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

辽宁省西部生态脆弱,是中国重点生态功能区,该地区森林资源消长变化对生态安全具有重要意义.本文将农户林业经营行为界定为联合经营行为,林业资金投入行为,林业生产技术使用行为.用种植年限,种植规模,种植林种三个指标考察森林资源的质量,数量,结构.基于199户农户调查问卷,运用序次Logistic模型和二分类Logistic模型,从组织管理,资金筹集,技术使用对森林资源消长变化影响的角度,对辽宁省西部朝阳市下辖的北票市,朝阳市双塔区,建平县以及阜新市下辖的彰武县的森林资源的质量,数量,结构变化进行计量分析.结果表明,筹资方式,户主性别,户主年龄,外出务工正向影响种植年限,融资渠道和地区负向影响种植年限.筹资方式,户主性别,受教育程度和社会资本正向影响种植规模,融资渠道,具有传统技术负向影响种植规模.未采用传统技术,使用林地清理技术,户主年龄正向影响种植林种.因此,加强对农户实用技术的培训,提高退耕还林补助金额,通过林地流转,反租倒包等方式,将林地承包给懂技术,有经验的林木种植大户,提高造林成活率,充分发挥信用贷款,林权抵押贷款的作用,降低门槛,不断满足农户林业经营的资金需求,以上是实现森林资源可持续发展的重要途径.

关键词: 农户行为, 森林资源消长变化, 组织管理, 资金筹集, 技术使用

Abstract:

Western Liaoning is ecologically fragile and a key ecological function area in China. Growth and decline in forest resources here is of great significance to ecological safety. This paper defines farmer forestry management behavior as joint management behavior,forestry investment behavior,and forestry production technology using behavior. We evaluate the quality,quantity and structure of forest resources from three indicators:planting age,planting scale and forest category. This paper uses the ordered Logistic model and binary classification Logistic model and performs metrological analysis of the factors affecting quantity,quality and structural change of forest resources,from the point of view of the organization,management and fund raising and technology use,based on 199 questionnaires of forest farmers in west Liaoning. The results show that financing way, householder gender, householder age and migrant workers has a positive effect on plantation age, the financing channels and regional has the negative influence on plantation age. Financing way, householder gender, level of education and social capital has a positive effect on planting scale, financing channel and the traditional technology of cultivation has the negative influence on planting scale. Without adopting the traditional technology, the use of forestland cleaning technology, householder age has a positive effect on forest category. To realize the sustainable development of forest resources,strengthening the practical technology training of farmers and improving the Grain for Green Program subsidy amount are needed. Let large planting growers who understand technology and have experience in planting trees contracting woodland,through the forestland circulation and contract after rent. To enhance the survival rate of afforestation,give full play to the role of the credit loan and forest right mortgage,reduce the loan threshold,and continuously meet the capital demands of forestry management.

Key words: farmers behavior, growth and decline of the forest resources, organization and management, fund raising, technology use

杨燕, 翟印礼. 农户行为对森林资源消长变化的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(3): 512-522.

YANG Yan,ZHAI Yinli. The impact of farmer behavior on growth and decline in forest resources[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(3): 512-522.

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区域	所属地区	面积 /万hm²	人口 /万人	农村居民年人均纯收入/元
北票市	朝阳市	44.69	60	8 930
双塔区	朝阳市	4.94	40	9 362
建平县	朝阳市	48.65	60	8 541
彰武县	阜新市	36.41	42	8 600

变量	指标	含义与测量	均值	标准差
因变量:	森林资源消长变化因素
	Y₁种植年限	1=(0,9),2=[9,12),3=(12,35]	2.17	0.80
	Y₂林地面积	1=(0,0.67)hm²,2=[0.67,1.33)hm²,3=[1.33,2)hm²,4=[2,13.33)hm²	1.99	1.13
	Y₃种植林种	1=经济林,0=非经济林	0.55	0.50
自变量:	1. 组织管理因素
	x₁种苗来源	1=政府提供, 2=自己购买, 3=自繁	1.75	0.76
	x₂林业政策的接受程度	1=非常不愿意,2=不愿意,3=不清楚,4=愿意,5=非常愿意	3.49	0.83
	x₃参与林业合作组织行为	1=参加, 0=未参加	0.26	0.44
	2. 资金筹集因素
	x₄资金来源	1=借入资金, 0=自有资金	0.24	0.43
	x₅融资渠道	0=没有借贷,1=向亲朋好友借贷,2=林权证抵押贷款,3=小额信用贷款,4=林业企业贷款,5=农户联保贷款,6=向林业合作组织贷款	0.30	0.62
	3. 技术使用因素
	x₆采用传统技术	1=是,2=否	1.34	0.47
	x₇林地清理技术	0=未清理, 1=利用法,2=带腐法,3=堆腐法,4=炼山,5=化学法	1.27	1.45
	x₈病虫害防治技术	1=化学农药,2=生物农药,3=物理防治	0.86	0.57
	4. 家庭禀赋因素
	x₉户主年龄	1=[0,16),2=[16,28),3=[28,45),4=[45,60),5=[60,75)	3.95	0.63
	x₁₀户主受教育程度	1=小学以下,2=小学 ,3=初中, 4=高中,5=中专,6=大学, 7=大学以上	2.74	0.90
	x₁₁外出务工	1=是, 0=否	0.37	0.48
	x₁₂社会资本	反映农户家庭是否有村干部:1=是, 0=否	0.18	0.38
	x₁₃林业收入占比	1=[0,0.5),2=[0.5,1)	1.29	0.45
	5. 区位因素
	x₁₄地区	0=彰武, 1=北票, 2=双塔区, 3=建平	1.34	1.15

自变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5
组织管理因素
种苗来源	-	0.299	-	-	0.347
	-	(0.210)	-	-	(0.223)
林业政策的接受程度	-	-0.050	-	-	-0.144
	-	(0.202)	-	-	(0.205)
参与林业合作组织行为	-	0.864**	-	-	0.702
	-	(0.440)	-	-	(0.544)
资金筹集因素
资金来源	-	-	2.010***	-	2.312***
	-	-	(0.749)	-	(0.835)
融资渠道	-	-	-1.524***	-	-1.665***
	-	-	(0.505)	-	(0.525)
技术使用因素
采用传统技术	-	-	-	-0.382	-0.393
	-	-	-	(0.440)	(0.489)
林地清理技术	-	-	-	-0.0544	0.0546
	-	-	-	(0.133)	(0.141)
病虫害防治技术	-	-	-	0.189	-0.0411
	-	-	-	(0.299)	(0.340)
家庭禀赋因素
户主年龄	0.744***	0.694***	0.716***	0.743***	0.688**
	(0.267)	(0.268)	(0.268)	(0.268)	(0.271)
户主受教育程度	0.090	0.071	0.119	0.072	0.129
	(0.181)	(0.187)	(0.184)	(0.182)	(0.192)
外出务工	1.076***	1.062***	1.044***	1.036***	1.069***
	(0.325)	(0.335)	(0.331)	(0.329)	(0.350)
社会资本	0.228	0.364	0.518	0.150	0.568
	(0.414)	(0.420)	(0.433)	(0.425)	(0.453)
林业收入占比	-0.327	-0.058	-0.347	-0.302	-0.116
	(0.331)	(0.354)	(0.339)	(0.335)	(0.368)
区位因素
北票	-3.631***	-4.019***	-3.968***	-3.420***	-4.405***
	(0.617)	(0.786)	(0.637)	(0.680)	(0.947)
双塔区	-1.453***	-1.725***	-1.857***	-1.067**	-2.056***
	(0.344)	(0.440)	(0.381)	(0.534)	(0.698)
建平	-2.909***	-2.687***	-3.407***	-2.627***	-3.328***
	(0.503)	(0.544)	(0.550)	(0.574)	(0.679)
似然卡方比	78.310	84.410	87.340	80.490	94.740
卡方检验	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
伪判定系数	0.177	0.191	0.198	0.182	0.214
样本量	199.000	199.000	199.000	199.000	199.000

自变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5
组织管理因素
种苗来源	-	-0.197	-	-	-0.265
	-	(0.202)	-	-	(0.210)
林业政策的接受程度	-	-0.205	-	-	-0.352
	-	(0.224)	-	-	(0.237)
参与林业合作组织行为	-	0.482	-	-	0.160
	-	(0.410)	-	-	(0.494)
资金筹集因素
资金来源	-	-	0.432	-	0.854
	-	-	(0.843)	-	(0.923)
融资渠道	-	-	-0.672	-	-0.887
	-	-	(0.547)	-	(0.577)
技术使用因素
采用传统技术	-	-	-	-1.515***	-1.539***
	-	-	-	(0.543)	(0.587)
林地清理技术	-	-	-	0.073	0.073
	-	-	-	(0.157)	(0.161)
病虫害防治技术	-	-	-	-0.111	-0.109
	-	-	-	(0.314)	(0.351)
家庭禀赋因素
户主年龄	0.369	0.336	0.364	0.402	0.381
	(0.252)	(0.253)	(0.254)	(0.258)	(0.262)
户主受教育程度	0.609***	0.632***	0.646***	0.649***	0.754***
	(0.205)	(0.210)	(0.206)	(0.209)	(0.223)
外出务工	0.633**	0.549*	0.567*	0.655**	0.576*
	(0.307)	(0.316)	(0.312)	(0.317)	(0.337)
社会资本	0.803**	0.812**	0.930**	0.466	0.604
	(0.407)	(0.413)	(0.419)	(0.423)	(0.442)
林业收入占比	0.308	0.431	0.231	0.309	0.288
	(0.325)	(0.345)	(0.330)	(0.333)	(0.356)
区位因素
北票	-2.550***	-3.254***	-2.672***	-2.504***	-3.402***
	(0.637)	(0.798)	(0.648)	(0.739)	(0.965)
双塔区	-2.397***	-2.834***	-2.454***	-1.677***	-2.268***
	(0.354)	(0.465)	(0.377)	(0.588)	(0.704)
建平	-3.424***	-3.647***	-3.479***	-3.007***	-3.651***
	(0.562)	(0.628)	(0.604)	(0.632)	(0.754)
似然卡方比	93.510	95.960	96.160	104.030	109.030
卡方检验	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
伪判定系数	0.178	0.183	0.183	0.198	0.208
样本量	199.000	199.000	199.000	199.000	199.000

变量	模型1		模型2
变量	发生比	P值	发生比	P值
组织管理因素
种苗来源	15.974*	0.088	-	-
林业政策的接受程度	0.257	0.310	-	-
参与林业合作组织行为	2.676	0.646	-	-
技术使用因素
采用传统技术	0.007**	0.023	0.071***	0.010
林地清理技术	10.373**	0.025	5.189***	0.004
病虫害防治技术	0.134	0.226	-	-
家庭禀赋因素
户主年龄	5.653	0.127	5.365**	0.039
户主受教育程度	1.053	0.932	-	-
外出务工	9.822	0.126	-	-
社会资本	0.455	0.608	-	-
林业收入占比	0.886	0.966	-	-
区位因素
北票	28 969.210**	0.024	367.378 ***	0.000
建平	1 835.750**	0.010	131.999***	0.000
似然卡方比	118.150	-	106.910	-
卡方检验	0.000	-	0.000	-
伪判定系数	0.811	-	0.734	-
样本量	199.000	-	199.000	-