关键词: 造林成本法, 林业碳汇, 成本收益, 因素分析

Abstract:

The process of marketization of forestry carbon sequestration is slow and one of the key influencing factors is the cost of carbon sequestration. This paper builds a model of forestry carbon sequestration costs based on afforestation cost methods referencing Benitez's model for carbon sequestration that considered the opportunity cost of land use and the carbon release cost of wood products. We then conducted an empirical analysis over 20 years of the slash pine afforestation of carbon sequestration project in Ruian city,Zhejiang,China and analyzed factors (e.g. rotation period,timber price,discount rate,and the price of labor)influencing the carbon sequestration cost. The results showed that increasing the rotation period resulted in the cost of slash pine carbon sequestration declining and then rising. When the timber value was taken into account the lowest cost of carbon sequestration of 20 years slash pine was 21.86 CNY/t. When the timber value was not considered,its lowest carbon sequestration cost was 670.33 CNY/t,which was higher than the carbon price in both international and domestic carbon markets and would not receive benefits from carbon sequestration. We also found that costs of carbon sequestration and the timber price were negatively correlated,while the discount rate and labor price were positively correlated. We focus on the break-even point of timber price,discount rate and labor price of carbon sequestration afforestation,and the critical value was 660 CNY/m³,5.44% and 155 CNY per day,respectively,in the international carbon market; in the domestic carbon market these values were 900CNY/m³,6.38% and 116 CNY per day,respectively.

Key words: afforestation cost method, forestry carbon sequestration, cost benefit, influencing factor analysis