基于SBM和Malmquist生产率指数的中国海洋经济效率评价研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.03.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过对海洋经济效率进行评价,可以掌握区域海洋经济发展水平与投入产出状况,为推动海洋经济朝集约化方向发展提供参考依据.本文基于考虑非期望产出的SBM模型和Malmquist生产率指数模型,对2001-2012年中国沿海11个省市区的海洋经济效率进行了测度,并对其跨期动态变化特征进行了刻画,在此基础上对中国海洋经济效率的演化阶段及机制进行了分析.研究发现:①不考虑非期望产出的海洋经济效率值明显高于考虑非期望产出的效率值,考虑非期望产出对于经济效率的测度具有明显影响;②海洋经济效率空间格局上呈现由2001年研究初期的南北高,中部低的特点演进为2012年研究末期的北部围绕天津,中部围绕上海,南部围绕广东的三极格局;时序演化方面,2001-2012年中国海洋经济效率总体上呈现出波动上升的趋势,效率类型呈现由无效向有效转变的特征;③沿海各省区的海洋经济效率区域绝对差距和相对差距呈现先缩小后扩大的趋势;省际海洋经济效率演变特征各异,可以划分为平稳型,上升型,下降型和波动型四种类型;④海洋经济的全要素生产率,技术效率,技术进步效率均呈缓慢上升,技术进步对于全要素生产率的提高作用明显,省际间除广西,河北和江苏外,其余省份的全要素生产率指数均呈上升趋势;⑤2001年以来中国海洋经济效率演化经历了波动下降(2001-2005年),转型(2005-2008年)和提升(2008-2012年)三个阶段,各演进阶段的驱动机制不同,分别受海洋资源驱动,政策驱动和市场技术驱动.

关键词: 海洋经济效率, 非期望产出, SBM模型, Malmquist生产率指数

Abstract:

By evaluating the marine economy efficiency, we can know the development level and the input-output condition of regional marine economy and provide references for promoting the marine economy development mode toward the intensive direction. This paper is based on consideration of undesirable outputs from the SBM model and Malmquist productivity index model when,measuring marine economic efficiency values for 11 coastal provinces in China from 2001 to 2012 and analyzing dynamic changes. We found that the marine economic efficiency value of inconsideration of undesirable output was higher than the one for consideration of undesirable output;undesirable output has a significant effect on marine economic efficiency. The spatial pattern of marine economic efficiency shows that the efficiency of northern and southern China is high,and the middle area is low in the initial stage; in 2012,the spatial pattern shows three poles. Chinese marine economic efficiency showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2012,meaning that the inefficiency is changing to an effective state,but remains low. The regional absolute and relative gap of marine economic efficiency in coastal provinces shrank and then expanded. Inter-provincial variation of marine economic efficiency varied from province to province. Eleven coastal provinces can be divided into four patterns:leveling,increasing,descending and fluctuating. Total factor productivity,technical efficiency and technological progress efficiency slowly increased. Technological advances play an important role in enhancing total factor productivity. Total factor productivities showed an ascending trend in all provinces except Guangxi,Hebei and Jiangsu. The evolution of marine economic efficiency can be divided into three stages since 2001:a declining and fluctuating stage(2001-2005),transformation stage(2005-2008))and improving stage(2008-2012). The driving mechanism in these three stages are marine resources,policy,market and technology,respectively.

Key words: marine economic efficiency, undesirable output, SBM model, Malmquist productivity index

赵林, 张宇硕, 焦新颖, 吴迪, 吴殿廷. 基于SBM和Malmquist生产率指数的中国海洋经济效率评价研究[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(3): 461-475.

ZHAO Lin,ZHANG Yushuo,JIAO Xinying,WU Di,WU Dianting. An evaluation of Chinese marine economy efficiency based on SBM and Malmquist productivity indexes[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(3): 461-475.

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	资源投入			劳动力投入	资本投入	期望产出	非期望产出
	码头长度 /m	旅行社数 /家	可养殖面积 /hm²	涉海从业人员/万人	沿海固定资产投资/万元	海洋经济增加值/亿元	废水入海量 /万t
均值	37 777.8	833.1	229.5	262.2	2 121.5	922.2	11 372.0
中位数	26 936.0	770.0	111.4	191.5	2 060.9	669.9	4 156.0
最大值	152 923.0	1 996.0	835.7	831.6	4 795.0	4 584.3	107 994.4
最小值	4 665.0	143.0	2.3	58.0	213.3	102.3	43.4
标准差	33 722.8	499.8	268.8	186.8	1 228.7	880.6	17 629.4
偏度	1.541	0.573	1.363	1.288	0.137	1.819	2.727
峰度	2.070	-0.572	0.378	1.195	-1.089	3.847	8.704

省份	2001年考虑/不考虑	2006年考虑/不考虑	2010年考虑/不考虑	2012年考虑/不考虑
福建	0.433/0.596	0.532/0.750	0.714/0.893	1.000/1.000
广东	0.368/0.480	0.557/0.619	0.800/0.817	1.000/1.000
广西	1.000/1.000	0.663/0.643	0.576/0.594	0.528/0.595
海南	1.000/1.000	0.860/0.983	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000
河北	1.000/1.000	0.417/0.394	0.497/0.410	0.397/0.431
江苏	0.267/0.184	0.242/0.180	0.256/0.225	0.252/0.241
辽宁	0.247/0.262	0.263/0.331	0.318/0.434	0.347/0.480
山东	0.279/0.392	0.351/0.482	0.480/0.646	0.535/0.698
上海	0.599/0.845	0.617/0.871	1.000/0.939	1.000/1.000
天津	1.000/1.000	0.782/0.832	0.710/0.913	1.000/1.000
浙江	0.325/0.427	0.294/0.413	0.367/0.514	0.416/0.564
全国	0.592/0.653	0.507/0.591	0.611/0.671	0.680/0.728

	Co ef.	Std.Err	z	P
Y
X₁	5.06e-06	2.07e-06	2.70	0.007***
X₂	0.010 465 2	0.003 600 1	2.91	0.004***
X₃	0.003 856 8	0.003 127	1.23	0.217
X₄	-118.798 8	59.181 86	-2.01	0.045**
X₅	0.041 346 2	0.398 110 6	0.10	0.917
X₆	0.184 966 5	0.109 808 3	1.68	0.092*
X₇	6.75e-08	1.49e-07	0.45	0.650
c	-0.284 053 5	0.164 580 9	-1.73	0.084
似然值	65.039 53