资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 333-343.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.02.15

• 能源经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

2002-2012年江苏省化石能源消耗的影响因素

许士春(), 刘沅涛, 龙如银   

  1. 中国矿业大学管理学院,徐州 221116
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-14 修回日期:2015-07-29 出版日期:2016-02-01 发布日期:2016-02-01
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:许士春,男,江苏徐州人,博士后,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为环境管理。E-mail:xushichun78@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    中国博士后基金面上项目(2014M551682).中国博士后基金特别资助项目(2015T80594).国家自然科学基金项目(71573253)

Factors influencing fossil energy consumptionin Jiangsu Province from 2002 to 2012

XU Shichun(), LIU Yuantao, LONG Ruyin   

  1. Management School, China’s University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
  • Received:2015-05-14 Revised:2015-07-29 Online:2016-02-01 Published:2016-02-01

摘要:

江苏省作为中国的经济大省,伴随着经济的快速发展,江苏省能源消耗量不断增加,研究江苏省化石能源消耗的主要影响因素,对于江苏省节能减排具有重要意义。本文基于2002年、2007年和2012年的投入产出数据,结构分解方法(SDA)分析江苏省化石能源消耗的影响因素。研究发现,整体上经济增长诸要素(消费、投资、调出和出口)是促进能源消耗的最主要因素,而能源强度变动效应是削减能源消耗增量的最主要因素,技术变动效应虽然对能源消耗起到一定的抑制作用,但作用很小;不同产业中,农业和建筑业中的能源强度变动效应促进了能源消耗,建筑业和服务业的技术水平在节能方面出现“倒退”的趋势;工业是江苏省能源消耗的主要来源,在工业中,制造业是能源消耗的主要部门。最后,提出四项对策建议,为实现江苏省经济与节能的协调发展提供参考。

关键词: 化石能源, 能源消耗, 影响因素, 结构分解法, 节能, 江苏省

Abstract:

With rapid economic growth, Jiangsu province has consumed enormous energy and emitted a great deal of carbon dioxide. Under a policy of energy savings and emissions reduction, researching the main factors that influence energy consumption is significant for Jiangsu carrying out specific measures to curb environmental pollution. Based on input-output tables for 2002, 2007 and 2012, we used structure decomposition analysis to decompose the factors influencing fossil energy consumption in Jiangsu in order to determine which is the prominent factor increasing energy consumption. Our results revealed that the effect of economic growth on consumption, investment, export and selling were major factors increasing energy consumption, while the effect of changes in energy intensity was the dominant factor in reducing energy consumption; the technology effect inhibited energy consumption, but its effect was very small. For different industries, the effect of the change in energy intensity in agriculture and construction promoted energy consumption, while the technology effect trend in the construction and service industry was ‘backward’. Industry in Jiangsu was the main source of energy consumption, for sub-sectors among the industry, the manufacturing industry enhanced energy consumption. Energy saving policy and carbon emission reduction are discussed from the aspects of economic growth, energy intensity and technological advancement, optimizing the energy consumption structure of Jiangsu, minimizing high-carbon contained energy and increasing clean energy.

Key words: fossil energy, energy consumption, influencing factors, structure decomposition analysis, energy saving, Jiangsu province