资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 321-332.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.02.14

• 能源经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

2001-2012年全球23国新能源发电效率测算与驱动因素分析

李少林()   

  1. 东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,大连 116025
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-05 修回日期:2015-09-20 出版日期:2016-02-01 发布日期:2016-02-01
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介: 李少林,男,湖北襄阳市人,博士,助理研究员,主要研究方向为产业经济、政府规制与碳减排等。E-mail:lishaolin0506@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403041).教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(14YJC790068).辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究一般项目(W2014212)

Research on calculation of new energy’s power generation efficiency and analysis on its driving factors

LI Shaolin()   

  1. Center for Industrial and Business Organization, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
  • Received:2015-05-05 Revised:2015-09-20 Online:2016-02-01 Published:2016-02-01

摘要:

新能源替代化石能源发电,已成为“雾霾治理”的重要手段,并在世界各国节能减排政策制定上达成广泛共识。本文将新能源发电的投入细分为太阳能装机容量、风能装机容量、地热能装机容量和生物燃料产量等四种形式,以新能源发电量作为新能源发电的产出指标,基于2001-2012年全球23个国家的平衡面板数据,对新能源发电的综合效率进行了基于Bootstrap-DEA方法的纠偏测算,并运用面板Tobit模型实证研究了新能源发电综合效率的驱动因素。研究发现:全球新能源发电的综合效率均呈现逐年上升态势;各国碳排放量并未构成新能源发电效率提升的倒逼机制;自然资源租金比重的提高促进了新能源发电效率的提升;城镇化率提升阻碍了新能源发电效率提升;人均收入水平较高的国家新能源发电效率普遍较高。本文提出应当提高新能源装机容量扩张政策与发电量提升政策的协同性,着力提升新能源发电效率,增加储能技术的研发投入,充分发挥地区自然资源禀赋优势,以破解“弃风限电”、“弃光限电”等制约新能源发展的瓶颈。

关键词: 新能源, 发电效率, 节能减排, 驱动因素, Bootstrap-DEA模型, Tobit模型, 全球

Abstract:

The fossil energy substituted by new energy has become an important means of ‘fog and haze governance’, reaching broad consensus on energy saving and emission reduction policies around the world. Here we defined new energy generation inputs as four forms (installed capacity of solar energy, wind power, geothermal energy and biofuels production) and defined electricity from new energy as an output indicator. Based on balanced panel data from 2001 to 2012 for 23 countries we used the Bootstrap-DEA method to correctly calculate the comprehensive efficiency of new energy’s power generation, and used the Tobit Model to empirically analyze driving factors of efficiency. We found that the comprehensive efficiency of global new energy power generation is rising; carbon emissions do not constitute a forced mechanism of the efficiency of new energy power generation; the proportion of natural resource rent has positive effects on the efficiency of new energy power generation; the urbanization rate has hindered the efficiency of new energy power generation; and the higher the per capita income of a nation, the higher the efficiency of new energy power generation. Based on these findings we propose that more attention should be given to the coordination of policies between the expansion of installed capacity and acceleration of generating capacity in order to improve the power generation of installed capacity. Research and development should be increased for energy storage technology, giving full play to the advantage of regional natural resource endowments, in order to crack the bottlenecks of ‘abandoned wind power’ and ‘abandoned light power’.

Key words: New energy, generation efficiency, energy saving and emission reduction, driving factors, Bootstrap-DEA Model, Tobit Model, Global