资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 290-299.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.02.11

• 碳排放与碳汇 • 上一篇    下一篇

1993-2033年中国林业碳库水平及发展态势

张旭芳1,2,3(), 杨红强1,3,4(), 张小标1,3   

  1. 1. 南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京 210037
    2. 美国密西西比州立大学森林资源学院,密西西比州 39762
    3. 国家林业局林产品经济贸易研究中心,南京 210037
    4. 南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,南京 210093
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-06 修回日期:2015-06-18 出版日期:2016-02-01 发布日期:2016-02-01
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张旭芳, 女,江苏连云港人,助理研究员,研究方向为气候变化、资源与环境经济。E-mail:zxfmichelle@gmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重点项目(14AJY014).教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(13YJAZH114).江苏省高校“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人项目(2012-12#)

Development level and trend in Chinese forestry carbon pools from 1989 to 2033

ZHANG Xufang1,2,3(), YANG Hongqiang1,3,4(), ZHANG Xiaobiao1,3   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China
    2. College of Forest Resources,Mississippi State University,Mississippi 39762,USA
    3. Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products,State Forestry Administration,Nanjing 210037,China
    4. Center for the Yangtze River Delta’s Socioeconomic Development,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China
  • Received:2015-05-06 Revised:2015-06-18 Online:2016-02-01 Published:2016-02-01

摘要:

气候变化是自1990年来全球的环境难题,增加森林碳汇和木质林产品碳储是缓解温室效应的有效途径。林业碳库总系统包含森林碳库和木质林产品碳库两个子系统。本研究结合蓄积量法、单指数衰减模型、生物量消耗法及储量变化法,对1993-2013年的中国林业碳库各子系统进行核算分析,并运用灰色动态系统GM(1,1)模型预测2014-2033年中国林业碳库的发展趋势。研究结果表明:①1993-2013年中国森林碳库呈现稳定上升趋势,2013年中国森林碳汇为175亿t,比1993年森林碳汇提高了约50%,采伐剩余物累计碳排放和森林火灾碳排放分别为1082万t和8 866万t,抵消了森林碳库水平的0.56%;②中国过去20年木质林产品碳库增长迅速,2013年木质林产品总碳储量和新增碳储量分别为9.0亿t和0.5亿t,比1993年分别增加了1.21倍和3.22倍;③2013年中国林业碳库碳储量为184.8亿t,未来中国林业碳库的发展态势预测结果显示,2014-2033年中国林业碳库碳储量将呈稳定上升趋势,2033年中国林业碳库碳储量将达到278.43亿t,是1993年林业碳库水平的2.05倍。

关键词: 气候变化, 林业碳库, 碳库水平, 碳库预测, 中国

Abstract:

Climate change is a serious environmental problems faced by human beings. Increasing the carbon sink of forests and the carbon storage of harvested wood products is an effective approach to alleviate the greenhouse effect. China’s forestry carbon pool consists of two subsystems including the forest carbon pool and harvested wood products carbon pool. This study analyzed the developmental level of the forestry carbon pool over the past 20 years by integrating methods including the biomass method,single index model,biomass consumption method and stock change approach. The study also predicted the development trend of the Chinese forestry carbon pool in the next 20 years based on GM(1,1)modeling. We found that in terms of the forest carbon pool subsystems,a trend of steady increases from 1989 to 2013 is evident. The carbon storage of the forest pool was 17.5 billion tons in 2013,approximately 50% more than in 1993. The accumulative carbon emissions from logging residues and forest fires was 10.82 and 88.66 million tons,respectively,accounting for 0.57% of the forest carbon pool. In terms of the harvested wood products carbon pool subsystem,a rapid increase in the past 20 years was found. The total and newly increased carbon stock of HWP was 0.9 billion and 50 million tons in 2013,respectively,equivalent to 2.21 and 3.22 times 1993 levels,respectively. In terms of the Chinese forestry carbon pool system,the carbon storage was 18.48 billion tons in 2013. Prediction based on the GM(1,1)model indicated that the carbon storage of the Chinese forestry carbon pool would grow steadily at a relatively high speed from 2014 to 2033. The carbon storage of Chinese forestry carbon pool will reach 27.8 billion tons in 2033,almost 2.05 times the 1993 level.

Key words: climate change, forestry carbon pool, level of carbon pool, prediction of carbon pool, China