资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 276-289.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.02.10

• 碳排放与碳汇 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国省域农业碳生产率的空间分异特征及依赖效应

程琳琳1,2(), 张俊飚1,2(), 田云3, 周晓时1,2   

  1. 1. 华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉 430070
    2. 湖北农村发展研究中心,武汉 430070
    3. 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,武汉 430073
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-10 修回日期:2015-10-15 出版日期:2016-02-01 发布日期:2016-02-01
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:程琳琳,男,河南洛阳人,硕士生,主要研究方向为资源与环境经济、低碳经济。E-mail:ch07012210@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(71333006).国家自然科学基金项目(71273105,41371520)

The spatial variation characteristics and dependency of agricultural carbon productivity in China

CHENG Linlin1,2(), ZHANG Junbiao1,2(), TIAN Yun3, ZHOU Xiaoshi1,2   

  1. 1. College of Economics & Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China
    2. Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan 430070,China
    3. School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China
  • Received:2015-04-10 Revised:2015-10-15 Online:2016-02-01 Published:2016-02-01

摘要:

科学测度农业碳生产率并探究其空间关联状况是构建兼具差异化和协调性的碳减排政策的基石。本文对2001-2012年中国31个省(市、区)的农业碳生产率进行测度,在此基础上利用空间相关性指数对其空间相关性、聚类状况进行考察,并运用空间杜宾模型分析农业碳生产率变动的主要影响因素及空间效应。结果表明:①2001-2012年中国各省区农业碳生产率均呈现较为明显的提升趋势,除个别省域外,省域农业碳生产率与其所属地区的经济发展程度基本一致;与此同时,农业碳生产率区域间“异质化”与区域内“均质化”的趋势显现,且以地区间农业碳生产率的“分化”与“极化”的现象较为严重;②省域农业碳生产率存在着较强的空间自相关性,各省区农业产业结构对本地区农业碳生产率具有负向影响,农村教育水平和农业开放程度对其具有正向影响,而农业经济发展水平、受灾程度和农业公共投资对其影响不甚明显;此外,省域农业碳生产率在空间上存在较为明显的溢出效应,其中一省区农村教育水平和农业开放水平对邻域农业碳生产率的提高具有正向带动作用,农业经济发展水平对其则起到抑制作用,而农业产业结构、自然灾害和农业公共投资对周边地区农业碳生产率的影响并不明显。

关键词: 农业碳生产率, 空间分异, 集聚效应, 空间依赖, 空间Durbin模型, 中国

Abstract:

Here,we estimated agricultural carbon productivity of China’s 31 provinces from 2001 to 2012 and used the spatial auto-correlation Moran's index to investigate global differentiation characteristics,spatial correlation and clustering. We then employed the spatial Durbin model to explore influential factors and spatial effects of agricultural carbon productivity. The results show that agricultural carbon productivity in all of China’s 31 provinces increased during the sample period,and except for some provinces,provincial agricultural carbon productivity is in line with regional economic development levels. Inter-regional agricultural carbon productivity has a tendency to be heterogeneous,while the agricultural carbon productivity of different provinces in the same region is being homogenized. The differentiation and polarization phenomena of agricultural carbon productivity among different regions are relatively serious. Spatial auto-correlation of provincial agricultural carbon productivity is positive;provincial agricultural industrial structure has a negative influence on local agricultural carbon productivity. However,rural education level and agricultural openness have positive influences. The influence of agricultural economic development level,agricultural calamity degree and agricultural public investment derived from government is not evident. Provincial agricultural carbon productivity in China has spillover effects from the perspective of spatial factors. Rural education level and agricultural openness in one zone plays a role in the improvement of neighborhood agricultural carbon productivity,but,to a certain extent,agricultural economic development will inhibit development and the influence from agricultural economic development level,agricultural natural disaster and agricultural public investment on neighborhood agricultural carbon productivity remains unclear.

Key words: agricultural carbon productivity, spatial variation, agglomeration effect, spatial dependence, spatial Durbin model, China