资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 248-254.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.02.07

• 水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国用水数据统计差异分析

龙秋波1,2,3(), 贾绍凤1(), 汪党献4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3. 湖南省水利水电勘测设计研究总院,长沙 410000
    4. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院, 北京 100120
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-07 修回日期:2015-05-27 出版日期:2016-02-01 发布日期:2016-02-01
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:龙秋波,男,湖南保靖人,博士生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:longqiubo17@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41471463)

Disparity in China’s water use statistics

LONG Qiubo1,2,3(), JIA Shaofeng1(), WANG Dangxian4   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Hunan Hydro & Power and Design Institute, Changsha 410000, China
    4. Design Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China)
  • Received:2015-02-07 Revised:2015-05-27 Online:2016-02-01 Published:2016-02-01

摘要:

用水数据是开启水资源规划与管理的钥匙,是中国落实最严格水资源管理制度的基础。本文基于1997-2011年中国水资源公报和全国第一次水利普查公开发布的用水数据综合运用对比分析、德尔菲专家调查及趋势离差等方法,从主观和客观两个方面定性地分析了两套权威用水数据的差异及其原因,并对不同行业的用水数据进行了取舍和修正,以期客观地判断中国真实用水情况。研究表明中国用水统计数据的差异是客观存在的。不同地区不同行业之间的数据差别各异,主要原因包括用水计量基础薄弱、计量率较低和地方行政部门为了争取相当于水权的用水指标而主观影响用水数据的上报等因素。修正后的中国2011年总用水量约为5 904.6亿m3,其中生活用水约为846.1亿m3,工业用水约为1 203.0亿m3,农业用水约为3 743.6亿m3,生态环境用水111.9亿m3

关键词: 用水数据, 统计差异, 三条红线, 德尔菲法, 趋势离差, 中国

Abstract:

Water use statistics are critical to regional water resource planning and management and the basis of strict implementation of water resource management strategies in China. Based on water use data in China water resources bulletins and the first national census for water, disparity in water use data and reasons for these disparities were analyzed using comparison, the Delphi expert survey method and the trend deviation method. Proper water statistics are chosen and modified to objectively determine the true water use situation in China. This study demonstrated that differences in water statistics are objective. Water use data disparities vary among different regions and sectors. The main reasons are weak water metering foundations, low measurement rates and local administrative departmental effects on water data reporting so as to gain equivalent water rights water indicators. The revised total water use of China in 2011 was 590.5 billion m3, of which domestic water consumption was 84.6 billion m3, industrial water consumption was 120.3 billion m3, and agricultural water consumption was 374.4 billion m3.

Key words: water use statistics, Statistial disparity, three Red Lines, Delphi expert survey method, trend deviation method, China