1960-2014年北京户外感知温度变化特征及其敏感性分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.01.19

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于通用热气候指数（UTCI）,本文分析了北京1960-2014年户外感知温度变化特征,并采用敏感性分析方法定量分析了驱动UTCI变化的主导因素。结果表明：①研究时段内,北京年均人体感知温度为9.2℃,人体整体感觉为舒适,并表现出显著的上升趋势,变化速率为0.52℃/10a;②在年际变化上,全年UTCI大致可以分为3个时期：1960-1970年持续下降期,1971-1990年持续上升期,1991-2014年平稳波动期;③在季节变化上,春季和秋季人体感觉为舒适,夏季为中度热胁迫,冬季为中度冷胁迫,且以春冬增幅最为显著;④在等级变化上,极端冷胁迫日数在减少,中度冷胁迫和热胁迫日数在增加,人体感觉整体趋于热不舒适;⑤在影响因素上,北京UTCI变化对气温最为敏感,其次是风速,但是不同季节中气候因子组合存在差异,不同气候因子在不同季节贡献量亦存在差异。

关键词: 气候变化, UTCI, 户外感知温度, 敏感系数, 北京

Abstract:

：Using the Universal Thermal Climate Index（UTCI）,we analysed climatic charac-teristics of human-perceived temperature in Beijing from 1960 to 2014. Dominant climatic factors driving variation in UTCI were quantitatively analysed using sensitivity analysis methods. We found that the average annual UTCI was 9.2℃ in Beijing over the last 55 years and that people felt comfortable on the whole. Regarding decadal change,the UTCI in Beijing underwent a decrease （1960-1970）,increase （1971-1990）and high stable period （1991-2014）. Regarding seasonal change,people feel comfortable in spring and autumn. Moderate heat stress and moderate cold stress were detected in summer and winter,respectively. A significant increase in the UTCI was detected beginning in the mid- to late 1980s; warming in spring and winter is more obvious than summer and autumn. The decrease in strong cold stress days was obvious in Beijing （-5.8d/decade）and variation in moderate cold stress days has increased over time （2.6d/decade）. Linear trends in moderate heat stress and comfortable days were 1.0d/decade and 1.6d/decade,respectively. UTCI sensitivity to temperature seems to be strong in Beijing at annual and seasonal scales. However,major factors and contributions of climate factors showed considerable differences across different seasons. For example,changes in UTCI were related to increasing temperature and decreasing wind speed in winter,whereas increasing temperature and relative humidity were major driving forces in summer. These results and sensitivity analysis were validated under given conditions based on modification of the real data set.

Key words: climate change, UTCI, outdoor thermal sensation, sensitivity coefficient, Beijing

李双双, 杨赛霓, 刘宪锋, 刘焱序. 1960-2014年北京户外感知温度变化特征及其敏感性分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(1): 175-184.

LI Shuangshuang,YANG Saini,LIU Xianfeng,LIU Yanxu. Changes in outdoor thermal sensation and sensitivity to climate factors in Beijing from 1960 to 2014[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(1): 175-184.

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UTCI	胁迫类型	UTCI	胁迫类型
>46	极度热胁迫	0~ 9	轻微冷胁迫
38~46	酷热胁迫	-13~0	中度冷胁迫
32~38	强热胁迫	-27~-13	强冷胁迫
26~32	中度热胁迫	-40~-27	酷冷胁迫
9~26	舒适	< -40	极冷胁迫

指标	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	全年
年平均值/℃	9.8	26.8	10.1	-10.2	9.2
胁迫类型	舒适	中度热胁迫	舒适	中度冷胁迫	舒适
变化趋势/（℃/10a）	0.60	0.09	0.41℃/10a	1.08	0.52
显著水平R²	0.27	0.02	0.20	0.43	0.37
p值	p<0.01	不显著	p<0.01	p<0.01	p<0.01
变异系数	0.20	0.03	0.15	0.25	0.15
1985年之前正距平比重/%	23.1	38.5	42.3	15.4	23.1
1985年之后正距平比重/%	79.3	55.2	65.5	89.7	93.1

季节	UTCI /℃	气候因子贡献率/%				UTCI变化率 /%	主导因素
季节	UTCI /℃	气温			风速	相对湿度	总辐射
春季	9.8	7.4	-7.5	2.3	3.0	33.8	风速和气温
夏季	26.8	0.8	-0.1	0.3	0.2	1.8	气温
秋季	10.1	4.5	-2.9	2.0	2.4	22.0	气温
冬季	10.2	22.8	-11.2	0.6	4.2	57.1	气温和风速
全年	9.2	4.3	-3.5	1.3	2.4	31.0	气温和风速