资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 155-165.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.17

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基于APSIM模型的气候变化对西南春玉米产量影响研究

戴彤1,2(), 王靖1(), 赫迪1, 王娜1   

  1. 1. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京 100193
    2. 天津市静海区气象局,天津 301600
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-11 修回日期:2015-07-23 出版日期:2016-01-25 发布日期:2016-01-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:戴彤,女,天津人,硕士,主要从事气候变化对作物产量影响的研究。E-mail:daitongtiger@foxmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB430205);全国涉农引智平台项目(2015z007)

Modelling the impacts of climate change on spring maize yield in Southwest China using the APSIM model

DAI Tong1,2(), WANG Jing1(), HE Di1, WANG Na1   

  1. 1. College of Resource and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China
    2. Jinghai meteorological Bureau,Tianjin 301600,China
  • Received:2015-05-11 Revised:2015-07-23 Online:2016-01-25 Published:2016-01-25

摘要:

为研究西南地区春玉米生长季主要气象因子对产量的影响,本文利用农业气象试验站作物及土壤资料,评价了APSIM-Maize模型在中国西南地区的适应性,并应用其分析该地区1961-2010年春玉米雨养产量的时空变化特征,明确了春玉米雨养产量的影响因子及影响程度。研究结果表明:APSIM模型对该区6个常用玉米品种的模拟效果较好,模拟与实测生育期的均方根误差(RMSE)在8d以内;4个品种地上部分生物量以及产量的模拟值与实测值归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)均低于29%,该模型在西南地区具有较好的适应性。研究区域春玉米生长季总辐射在南部中区和北部降低最明显,≥8℃有效积温在西部升高显著,日均温度日较差在西部和东南部减小最显著,总降水在区域中部减少较显著。模拟的春玉米雨养产量在全区46%的研究站点中呈显著降低趋势(P<0.05),尤其东部中区和南部最显著;减产显著的站点中,生长季辐射降低、温度升高、降水减少和温度日较差降低对减产的贡献率分别为32%、40%、1%和-2%。

关键词: 调参验证, 雨养产量, 逐步回归, 贡献率, APSIM模型, 春玉米, 西南地区

Abstract:

The APSIM-Maize model was calibrated and validated using crop and soil data from agro-meteorological experimental stations in maize planting zones in Southwest China (SWC). The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics in simulated rainfed yield of spring maize were analyzed to explore the impacts of changes in main climatic factors during the maize growing season on yields from 1961 to 2010. We found that the APSIM model performed well in simulating phenology,above-ground biomass and yield of six representative spring maize varieties. The root mean squared error between simulated and observed growing periods was less than 8 d for all varieties and the normalized root mean squared error between simulated and observed above-ground biomass and yield was less than 29% for four varieties. Growing season total solar radiation decreased in the central,southern and northern SWC;≥8℃ accumulated temperature increased evidently in western SWC;daily diurnal temperature range decreased in western and southeastern SWC;and total precipitation decreased in central SWC. As a result,the simulated rainfed yield of spring maize declined at 46% of all study stations in SWC,especially in central,eastern and southern SWC. The contribution of decreasing solar radiation,increasing temperature,decreasing precipitation and decreasing diurnal temperature range during maize growing season to yield reduction was 32%,40%,1% and -2%,respectively,in stations which had a significant decline in yield.

Key words: calibration and validation, rainfed yield, stepwise regression, contribution rate, APSIM model, spring maize, Southwest China