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区域经济、城镇化对铁矿石需求的影响研究——基于27国样本

1. 1. 中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京 100872
2. 中国地质大学（武汉）经济管理学院,武汉 430074
• 收稿日期:2015-07-20 修回日期:2015-10-10 出版日期:2016-01-25 发布日期:2016-01-25
• 作者简介:

作者简介：贾立文,男,内蒙古太仆寺旗人,博士生,研究方向为风险管理与保险、矿产资源需求。E-mail：jlw101065@163.com

• 基金资助:
基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（41572315）;国家自然科学基金面上项目（41272362）

Regional economic and urbanization effects on iron ore demand based on a sample of 27 countries

JIA Liwen1(), XU Deyi2()

1. 1. School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China
2. School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China
• Received:2015-07-20 Revised:2015-10-10 Online:2016-01-25 Published:2016-01-25

Abstract:

This paper uses data from 27 typical countries to examine and compare the demand for iron ore in China. The sample is divided to increasing countries,decreasing countries and increasing-decreasing countries;panel model and the FGLS method are applied. The main factors affecting the demand for iron ore are economic growth level,urbanization level,energy consumption level,industrialization level and technology level. The results show that there is a similar model of demand for iron ore in China and Russia （increasing countries）. The economic growth level, technology level and energy consumption level has major effects on iron ore demand in these countries. In terms of China,a 1% increase in per capita GDP leads to an increase in per capita iron ore consumption of 1.4tons. For decreasing countries such as USA industrialization, urbanization and energy consumption level are the main factors adjusting the structure of iron ore demand. A 1% increase in industry factor results in an increase in per capita iron ore consumption of 8kg. For increasing-decreasing countries （e.g. Sweden）,iron ore demand is mainly influenced by industry factors and energy consumption levels. In detail,a 1% increase in the industry factor increases per capita iron ore consumption by 22kg. We believe that the China iron ore market should draw on the experience of USA,Sweden,Russia and other countries to improve industrial structure,upgrade the efficiency of secondary industries and technology level for iron ore use,and promote urbanization construction in order to ameliorate iron ore consumption structure.