资源科学

资源科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 144-154.doi: 10.18402/resci.2016.01.16

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区域经济、城镇化对铁矿石需求的影响研究——基于27国样本

贾立文1(), 徐德义2()   

  1. 1. 中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京 100872
    2. 中国地质大学（武汉）经济管理学院,武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-20 修回日期:2015-10-10 出版日期:2016-01-25 发布日期:2016-01-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：贾立文,男,内蒙古太仆寺旗人,博士生,研究方向为风险管理与保险、矿产资源需求。E-mail：jlw101065@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（41572315）;国家自然科学基金面上项目（41272362）

Regional economic and urbanization effects on iron ore demand based on a sample of 27 countries

JIA Liwen1(), XU Deyi2()   

  1. 1. School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China
    2. School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China
  • Received:2015-07-20 Revised:2015-10-10 Online:2016-01-25 Published:2016-01-25

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摘要：

选取世界上具有代表性的27个国家进行铁矿石需求分析,探寻优化中国铁矿石需求模式的路径。将样本划分为增长型、下降型、先增后减型等类型,分别建立面板模型和使用可行广义最小二乘法修正的模型进行实证研究。经检验,影响三类国家铁矿石需求的主要指标是经济增长、城镇化、能源消耗、产业发展以及技术进步。研究表明,中国与俄罗斯同属铁矿石需求增长型国家,具有相似的铁矿石需求模式,经济增长、技术进步与能源消耗对铁矿石需求的影响最为显著,其中中国人均GDP增长一万元将使人均铁矿石消费量增加1.4t;在美国,第二产业发展、城镇化建设与能源消耗是影响铁矿石需求结构的主要因素;瑞典等国的铁矿石需求则主要受到第二产业发展与能源消耗水平的影响,第二产业增加值占GDP的比例每增长一个百分点将使人均铁矿石消费量增加近22kg。参照美国、瑞典等国的经验,优化第二产业从而提升铁矿石使用效率,加快城镇化建设从而改善铁矿石使用结构等措施,对调整铁矿石需求结构有明显作用。

关键词: 矿产资源, 铁矿石需求, 城镇化, 面板模型, 可行广义最小二乘

Abstract:

This paper uses data from 27 typical countries to examine and compare the demand for iron ore in China. The sample is divided to increasing countries,decreasing countries and increasing-decreasing countries;panel model and the FGLS method are applied. The main factors affecting the demand for iron ore are economic growth level,urbanization level,energy consumption level,industrialization level and technology level. The results show that there is a similar model of demand for iron ore in China and Russia （increasing countries）. The economic growth level, technology level and energy consumption level has major effects on iron ore demand in these countries. In terms of China,a 1% increase in per capita GDP leads to an increase in per capita iron ore consumption of 1.4tons. For decreasing countries such as USA industrialization, urbanization and energy consumption level are the main factors adjusting the structure of iron ore demand. A 1% increase in industry factor results in an increase in per capita iron ore consumption of 8kg. For increasing-decreasing countries （e.g. Sweden）,iron ore demand is mainly influenced by industry factors and energy consumption levels. In detail,a 1% increase in the industry factor increases per capita iron ore consumption by 22kg. We believe that the China iron ore market should draw on the experience of USA,Sweden,Russia and other countries to improve industrial structure,upgrade the efficiency of secondary industries and technology level for iron ore use,and promote urbanization construction in order to ameliorate iron ore consumption structure.

Key words: mineral resources, demand for iron ore, urbanization, Panel Model, FGLS