基于贝叶斯概率模型的鄂西北山地区耕地整治适宜性评价

doi:10.18402/resci.2016.01.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在中国耕地保护形势日益严峻的情况下,如何在山地区开展耕地整治项目布局,提高耕地整治效率,是当前开展山地区土地整治规划工作的重要内容,而耕地整治适宜性评价则是耕地整治项目布局的前提。本文以鄂西北山地区房县为研究区域,选取灌溉保证率、地形坡度、土壤质地、有效土层厚度、耕地系数、与道路距离、与城镇中心距离和田块规模指数8个评价指标,运用贝叶斯概率模型计算影响因素权重和耕地整治的后验概率,并得到研究区耕地整治的适宜性分布图,最后进行预测结果检验。结果表明：①在影响山地区耕地整治的因素中,耕地系数、灌溉保证率、地形坡度、与道路距离四个因素对耕地整治影响程度比田块规模指数、有效土层厚度、与城镇中心距离和土壤质地4个因素对耕地整治的影响程度大;②对2013年耕地整治项目布局与适宜性分布图进行对比分析,有88.81%处于适宜性整治区,说明该模型具有可行性。该文可为耕地整治适宜性评价提供方法借鉴,并为鄂西北山地区更合理科学地开展土地整治规划提供依据。

关键词: 土地利用, 耕地整治, 适宜性评价, 贝叶斯概率模型, 山地区

Abstract:

How to arrange arable land consolidation projects and improve the efficiency of arable land consolidation in mountain areas under increasingly serious arable land protection situation is an important component of land consolidation planning. And suitability evaluation of arable land consolidation is the premise of arable land consolidation projects arrangement. Taking Fang county in northwest Hubei,China as a case study,we first selected eight affecting factors, including irrigation assurance rate,terrain slope,soil texture,effective soil layer thickness,arable land coefficient,distance to road,distance to town center and field scale index, to characterize the arable land consolidation suitability. The weight values of affecting factors and posterior probability of arable land consolidation were calculated to obtain a distribution map of arable consolidation suitability by Bayesian Probability Modeling. We found that among factors affecting arable land consolidation of mountain areas,arable land coefficient,irrigation assurance rate,terrain slope and distance to road have more influence on arable land consolidation than others. A total of 88.81% of the area is distributed in suitable arable consolidation areas when comparing arable land consolidation placing in 2013 with predictions of arable consolidation suitability; this indicates the model is feasible. These data provide a reference for suitability evaluation of arable land consolidation and can contribute to the practicability of land consolidation planning in mountainous areas in China.

Key words: land use, arable land consolidation, suitability evaluation, Bayesian Probability Model, mountain area

胡学东, 王占岐, 邹利林. 基于贝叶斯概率模型的鄂西北山地区耕地整治适宜性评价[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(1): 83-92.

HU Xuedong,WANG Zhanqi,ZOU Lilin. Suitability evaluation of arable land consolidation in mountain areas of Northwestern Hubei based on Bayesian Probability Modeling[J]. Resources Science, 2016, 38(1): 83-92.

图/表 5

表1

耕地整治评价指标体系"

评价指标	级别	级别含义	获取方法
灌溉保证率（A₁）	1	充分满足,包括水田、菜地和可随时灌溉的水浇地	叠加分析研究区域耕地质量属性中的灌溉保证率图层和耕地图层(包括已整治耕地图层和未整治耕地图层),得到每个耕地图斑的灌溉保证率值
	2	基本满足,有良好的灌溉系统,在关键需水生长季节有灌溉保证的水浇地
	3	一般满足,有灌溉系统,但在大旱年不能保证灌溉的水浇地
	4	无灌溉条件,包括旱地与望天田
地形坡度（A₂）/°	1	地形坡度<2	叠加分析研究区域耕地坡度图和耕地图层(包括已整治耕地图层和未整治耕地图层),得到每个耕地图斑的坡度值
	2	地形坡度2~6
	3	地形坡度6~15
	4	地形坡度15~25
	5	地形坡度≥25
土壤质地（A₃）	1	壤土	叠加分析研究区域农用地分等定级中的土壤质地图层和耕地图层(包括已整治耕地图层和未整治耕地图层),得到每个耕地图斑的土壤质地值
	2	砂土
	3	粘土
有效土层厚度（A₄）/cm	1	有效土层厚度>100.1	叠加分析研究区域耕地质量属性中的有效土层厚度图层和耕地图层(包括已整治耕地图层和未整治耕地图层),得到每个耕地图斑的有效土层厚度值,并根据划分标准划分级别
	2	有效土层厚度80.1~100.1
	3	有效土层厚度60.1~80.1
	4	有效土层厚度<60.1
耕地系数（A₅）	1	<0.813	利用式（1）,分别计算已整治耕地图层和未整治耕地图层中的每个耕地图斑的耕地系数,再根据截取确定级别
	2	0.813~0.888
	3	0.888~0.963
	4	>0.963
与道路距离（A₆）/m	1	<200	提取土地利用现状中的道路图层,分别以200m、500m、1 000m、2 000m和3 000m进行缓冲区分析,再叠加耕地图层(包括已整治耕地图层和未整治耕地图层),得出距道路不同距离的耕地分布情况
	2	200~500
	3	500~1 000
	4	1 000~2 000
	5	2 000~3 000
	6	>3 000
与城镇中心距离（A₇）/m	1	<1 000	以研究区域城镇中心点为圆心,分别以1 000m、2 000m、4 000m、6 000m、8 000m和10 000m为半径进行缓冲区分析,再与耕地图层(包括已整治耕地图层和未整治耕地图层)进行叠加,得出距城镇中心不同距离的耕地分布情况
	2	1 000~2 000
	3	2 000~4 000
	4	4 000~6 000
	5	6 000~8 000
	6	8 000~10 000
	7	>10 000
田块规模指数（A₈）	1	<1.358	利用公式（2）,分别计算已整治耕地图层和未整治耕地图层中的每个耕地图斑的田块规模指数,再根据截取确定级别
	2	1.358~2.929
	3	2.929~4.501
	4	>4.501

表1

表2

各指标权重参数"

评价指标	级别							C
灌溉保证率（A₁）	1	0.012 2	0.003 5	0.987 8	0.996 5	1.249	-0.009	1.257
	2	0.114 5	0.133 9	0.885 5	0.866 1	-0.157	0.022	-0.179
	3	0.333 4	0.247 0	0.666 6	0.753 0	0.300	-0.122	0.422
	4	0.539 9	0.615 6	0.460 1	0.384 4	-0.131	0.180	-0.311
地形坡度（A₂）/°	1	0.354 9	0.136 1	0.645 1	0.863 9	0.958	-0.292	1.250
	2	0.043 8	0.031 1	0.956 2	0.968 9	0.342	-0.013	0.356
	3	0.186 8	0.154 3	0.813 2	0.845 7	0.191	-0.039	0.230
	4	0.317 2	0.433 8	0.682 8	0.566 2	-0.313	0.187	-0.500
	5	0.097 3	0.244 8	0.902 7	0.755 2	-0.923	0.178	-1.101
土壤质地（A₃）	1	0.608 9	0.624 7	0.391 1	0.375 3	-0.026	0.041	-0.067
	2	0.133 5	0.112 9	0.866 5	0.887 1	0.168	-0.023	0.191
	3	0.257 6	0.262 4	0.742 4	0.737 6	-0.018	0.006	-0.025
有效土层厚度（A₄）/cm	1	0.041 6	0.050 5	0.958 4	0.949 5	-0.194	0.009	-0.203
	2	0.726 3	0.640 4	0.273 7	0.359 6	0.126	-0.273	0.399
	3	0.206 4	0.285 2	0.793 6	0.714 8	-0.323	0.105	-0.428
	4	0.025 7	0.023 9	0.974 3	0.976 1	0.073	-0.002	0.074
耕地系数（A₅）	1	0.065 6	0.062 5	0.934 4	0.937 5	0.048	-0.003	0.052
	2	0.161 7	0.174 2	0.838 3	0.825 8	-0.074	0.015	-0.089
	3	0.457 5	0.667 7	0.542 5	0.332 3	-0.378	0.490	-0.868
	4	0.315 3	0.095 6	0.684 7	0.904 4	1.193	-0.278	1.472
与道路距离（A₆）/m	1	0.374 2	0.258 2	0.625 8	0.741 8	0.371	-0.170	0.541
	2	0.197 7	0.200 4	0.802 3	0.799 6	-0.014	0.003	-0.017
	3	0.187 4	0.210 8	0.812 6	0.789 2	-0.118	0.029	-0.147
	4	0.182 0	0.214 8	0.818 0	0.785 2	-0.166	0.041	-0.207
	5	0.049 3	0.084 4	0.950 7	0.915 6	-0.538	0.038	-0.575
	6	0.009 3	0.031 4	0.990 7	0.968 6	-1.217	0.023	-1.239
与城镇中心距离（A₇）/m	1	0.046 5	0.034 1	0.953 5	0.965 9	0.310	-0.013	0.323
	2	0.067 8	0.078 4	0.932 2	0.921 6	-0.145	0.011	-0.157
	3	0.257 8	0.238 6	0.742 2	0.761 4	0.077	-0.026	0.103
	4	0.217 7	0.201 1	0.782 3	0.798 9	0.079	-0.021	0.100
	5	0.137 8	0.147 7	0.862 2	0.852 3	-0.069	0.012	-0.081
	6	0.125 0	0.127 3	0.875 0	0.872 7	-0.018	0.003	-0.021
	7	0.147 4	0.172 8	0.852 6	0.827 2	-0.159	0.030	-0.189
田块规模指数（A₈）	1	0.056 2	0.166 0	0.943 8	0.834 0	-1.083	0.124	-1.207
	2	0.503 7	0.544 9	0.496 3	0.455 1	-0.079	0.087	-0.165
	3	0.284 8	0.174 9	0.715 2	0.825 1	0.488	-0.143	0.631
	4	0.155 3	0.114 2	0.844 7	0.885 8	0.307	-0.048	0.355

表2

表3

图1

图2

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评价指标	灌溉保证率	地形坡度	土壤质地	有效土层厚度	耕地系数	道路距离	城镇中心距离	田块规模指数
灌溉保证率	-	0.118	0.429	0.368	0.046	0.038	0.132	0.055
地形坡度	-	-	0.101	0.081	0.417	0.096	0.193	0.229
土壤质地	-	-	-	0.351	0.056	0.090	0.100	0.048
有效土层厚度	-	-	-	-	0.040	0.065	0.122	0.068
耕地系数	-	-	-	-	-	0.160	0.166	0.148
与道路距离	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.113	0.091
与城镇中心距离	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.177
田块规模指数	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-