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### 山东省建设用地供给结构对人口流动的影响研究

1. 1. 中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,徐州 221116
2. 济南铁路局土地管理局,济南 250001
3. 山东省建设发展研究院,济南 250001
4. 山东师范大学商学院,济南 250014
• 收稿日期:2015-08-03 修回日期:2015-11-03 出版日期:2016-01-25 发布日期:2016-01-25
• 作者简介:

作者简介：彭山桂,男,四川蓬安人,博士生,经济师,主要研究方向为土地经济。E-mail：pengshangui@163.com

• 基金资助:
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（41171118）;江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目（KYZZ15_0379）;江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目（SZBF2011-6-B35）

### The impact of local government construction land supply structure on migration in Shandong,China

PENG Shangui1(), WANG Yinghong1, CHEN Chen2, WANG Jian1, LEI Gang3, CHENG Daoping4()

1. 1. School of Environment and Spatial Informatics,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China
2. Ji’nan Railway Bureau,Land Administration Bureau,Ji’nan 250001,China
3. Shandong Construction Development Research Institute,Ji’nan 250001,China
4. School of Business,Shandong Normal University,Ji’nan 250014,China
• Received:2015-08-03 Revised:2015-11-03 Online:2016-01-25 Published:2016-01-25

Abstract:

In order to reflect the impact of local government land supply behavior on migration, clarify the mechanism of population inflow influenced by construction land supply structure adjustment. Here,we built a general equilibrium model for local government,enterprise and residents using panel data for prefecture-level cities in Shandong,China from 2001-2013. We analyzed the empirical impact of construction land supply structure of local governments on population inflow using threshold regression. We found that the construction land supply structure has an inverted U type relationship with population inflow. The effects on population inflow are different when construction land supply structures are different. The （0,0.823） interval enhances the value of the construction land supply structure and helps draw population inflow while increasing the proportion of industrial land or decreasing the proportion of commercial and residential land. The （0.823,∞） interval has a negative impact on population inflow if we continue to increase the proportion of industrial land or reduce the proportion of commercial and residential land. The partial regression coefficients of construction land supply structure is less than the population size （26.617 3）and city location （11.445 5）and greater than infrastructure investment （1.399 5）. This indicates that the structure of construction land supply is an indispensable factor to population inflow. Based on real demand of the government itself on population inflow,local governments can use the construction land supply structure as a tool and adopt different ways to regulate and guide the population inflow and outflow.